Peter Hannah Profile picture
May 13 9 tweets 2 min read
Picked out a few industry participant quotes from the @Fastmarkets Editorial team's commentary this week to paint the picture of the #lithium spot market at the moment. Real mix of ↗️/➡️/↘️ sentiment, but domestic scene notably more downbeat than seaborne...
🧵
↘️ Chinese trader: “The markets are very transparent. Buyers know that domestic prices in China are lower and the Chinese yuan is getting weaker, and they expect seaborne lithium prices to drift lower.”
↘️ Chinese producer: “We are willing to lower our offers for battery-grade lithium hydroxide slightly. Amid the weaker Chinese yuan, our margins will not be influenced much if we lower our offers”
➡️Chinese producer 2: “Spot supply of hydroxide remains tight and demand strong. So prices are only slightly lower in response to recent depreciation of the yuan”
➡️ European trader: “Weakness from the Chinese market has not yet filtered heavily into the seaborne Asian market yet”
➡️ East Asia consumer: "We have been short on several hundred tonnes of lithium hydroxide every month recently, and the spot market is tight.”
↗️ Chinese producer 3: “Sellers are keeping their offers for lithium carbonate firm in expectation of higher prices when demand bounces back after the lockdowns in China are lifted”
↘️ European seller: “No one is buying. They are hoping prices would drop further”
↘️ Chinese domestic traders: “I've heard no offers for hydroxide this week. The market is extremely quiet. Sellers know there is no buying interest even if they issue offers”
“There is no demand for hydroxide from the nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) batteries sector at all.”

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More from @PHmetals

Mar 10
One result of the @LME_news #nickel madness has been people questioning the wisdom of hedging in nascent derivative markets like #cobalt & #lithium if the risks of wipeout margin calls could undermine any risk mitigation. It's a fair concern, but one that's broadly unfounded...🧵
2/ The key distinction is between physically-settled & cash-settled futures. The meme move on Ni was the result of a short squeeze on a contract requiring physical delivery of expiring positions - "he who sells what is'n his'n must pay the price or go to prisn" as they say
3/ Co & Li on @LME_news, @CMEGroup & soon @SGX are cash-settled basis @Fastmarkets prices, & it's infinitely more difficult to squeeze & move an open spot market assessed by a PRA than it is an exchange delivery point based system (see also Apr 2020 WTI example)
Read 9 tweets
Feb 18
Two recent @Fastmarkets articles explain an interesting dynamic unfolding in the Chinese #cobalt market:
Cobalt sulphate price has hit a 3-year high driven in part by strong downstream demand, but particularly by tightness in supply of the upstream feedstock, cobalt hydroxide, due to logistics issues getting material from the #DRC out via #SouthAfrica: dashboard.fastmarkets.com/launch?url=/a/…
Market participants are not anticipating the problems to be resolved in the near term: “I don’t think the logistics issues from South Africa to China will ease in the first quarter or even the first half of 2022,” a cobalt hydroxide supplier said.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 27, 2021
1/ #China released its working guidance for achieving #carbon emissions peak by 2030 & neutrality by 2060 last weekend and it contains some pretty significant implications for nearly all commodity markets: metalbulletin.com/Article/401353…
2/ At face value it spells out ambitious overhauls to see industries like energy, steel, NF metals, petchems, transport & construction to reach peak CO2 before 2030, strictly controlling new projects in high-emission sectors such as steel, cement, glass & aluminium.
3/ Meanwhile new energy materials & vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing will accelerate as strategic emerging industries. To achieve non-fossil energy consumption of >80% by 2060 China will also focus on renewables incl wind, solar, biomass, tidal & geothermal.
Read 9 tweets

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