Thread by @FirasMaksad

1-Early #Lebanon election results indicate Hezbollah lost parliament majority to civil society & opposing traditional forces. Longtime group allies knocked out in South, Beqaa & Mount Lebanon. While significant, strategically, country will remain hostage to group's weapons لبنان#

2- The significance is in that Hezbollah & Co can no longer claim to hold the legitimate majority. They suffered unprecedented setbacks in key districts. They will also have much harder time putting an ally in the presidency when Aoun's term expires in Nov 2022.

3- Hezbollah's Christian ally dealt a resounding defeat, with nemesis Lebanese Forces now set to be largest Christian bloc. Despite still holding on to some 16 seats, about a quarter of Aouni MPs are elected by Hezbollah voters. Gebran Bassil becoming president now distant dream.

4- Saad Hariri also suffered big blow, with limited Sunni boycott of vote despite their traditional leader's absence. While no strongman emerged, Sunni majority voted for civil society & anti Hezbollah hawks. Sunni representation to remain fractured for foreseeable future.

5- Walid Joumblatt remains unchallenged chief of the Druze, maintaining or even marginally growing his bloc. Although a Druze civil society candidate won, it was at the expense of pro Syria/Iran Talal Arslan. Joumblatt's other rival Wiam Wahab also failed to secure seat.

6- Setbacks suffered by Hezbollah & co offer greater opportunity for pushback against Iran in #Lebanon. Yet strategic shift remains unlikely in light of limited Western/Arab interest, the groups enduring hold on its community, & the preponderance of its military power.

7- More likely outcomes include fractured parliament & difficulty forming a gov, stalling IMF negotiations & reforms. Also vacancy in presidency as Hezbollah employs pressure tactics to prevent election of a rival to the post come Nov. LAF Commander now has edge over Frangieh.

8-While Lebanon remains a fractured & complex polity. Election results offer hope that potential for change exists. Majority of Lebanese don’t support Hezbollah & miserable status quo. But strategic shift requires a favorable regional & int context that doesn’t currently exist.

9- Lebanon's political paralysis & continuing financial collapse may force greater regional and int involvement in the months ahead- a Doha or Taef 2.0. But for now, the Lebanese deserve to rejoice in their electoral victories, no matter how fleeting.🇱🇧