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Firas Maksad Profile picture
Firas Maksad
@FirasMaksad
Managing Director for Middle East & North Africa @EurasiaGroup; Associate Fellow @MiddleEastInst; views my own.
2 subscribers
Jan 13 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
1- Parliament’s selection of ICJ Judge Nawaf Salam as PM of #Lebanon is another political earthquake, after the landmark election of Joseph Aoun as president last week. Salam is opposed by both Hezbollah & incoming Trump team, presenting both challenges & opportunities. 2- Noteworthy- Salam’s selection was devoid of foreign intervention, despite some Sunni MPs openly stating they will wait for #Saudi direction. Saudi stayed clear of involvement in #Lebanon’s top Sunni post, allowing domestic pol process to unfold.
Oct 9, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Trying to decipher the Hezbollah - #Israel fire fight today? Let me help you.

Hezbollah first struck an Israeli post in the Shebaa Farms, disputed #Syria #Lebanon territory occupied by Israel, not Israel proper. The intended message is deterrence: We are here & might escalate if you commence full ground invasion of Gaza. Israel retaliated with localized artillery shelling, keeping it limited as per established rules of the game between the two in South #Lebanon. Israel is not seeking a second front as is gears up for Gaza campaign.
Oct 7, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
An October War, ignited on the 50th anniversary of the original, with similar shock and awe.
What follows will be painful with profound implications across the Middle East. #Israel #Palestine #Hamas
As in 1973, the Israeli intelligence failure is jarring. Taken completely by surprise. Investigations will launched & political careers will end, but not before much blood is spilled.
Dec 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Sources believe UNFIL driver was executed, bullet to head, after vehicle flipped over. Assassins used tools to cut through bulletproof vehicle.

Claim that bullet hit driver in head as he sped away challenged by what appears to be very thick bulletproof glass. #Ireland #Lebanon The following image supports the narrative that Irish UNIFIL was assassinated point blank. Driver door shows signs of being pried open 👇 #Lebanon #Ireland
May 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1-Early #Lebanon election results indicate Hezbollah lost parliament majority to civil society & opposing traditional forces. Longtime group allies knocked out in South, Beqaa & Mount Lebanon. While significant, strategically, country will remain hostage to group's weapons لبنان# 2- The significance is in that Hezbollah & Co can no longer claim to hold the legitimate majority. They suffered unprecedented setbacks in key districts. They will also have much harder time putting an ally in the presidency when Aoun's term expires in Nov 2022.
Mar 21, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD
I argue in this @WSJopinion, that when Saudi & UAE decline phone calls @JoeBiden, rebuff request to lower oil prices & shy away from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no doubt a major crisis in U.S.-Arab Gulf relations is under way.
wsj.com/articles/a-cri… 2- This will be exacerbated in the weeks ahead if the U.S. nears an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program, lifting many sanctions in the process. How Washington handles this unfolding predicament will shape the region’s future, and America’s place in it, for decades.
Aug 6, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Incredible video of Lebanon Druze villagers stoping a Hezbollah rocket launch against Israel. People are tired and angry. No one wants war on behalf of Iran.
#لبنان This time Hezbollah got caught red handed by objecting civilians. No more unclaimed rocket fire to invite retaliation on their villages. How embarrassing. Unprecedented.
#Lebanon #Iran #Israel
Jun 27, 2020 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
BREAKING

US amb to #Lebanon banned from making public pronouncements after recent interview debunking Nasrallah claim financial crises is result of US plot.

Judge prohibits local TVs from interviewing

lebanon24.com/news/lebanon/7…قرار-قضائي-يمنع-السفيرة-الاميركية-من-التصاريح-الإع Interview (English) that got US Amb to #Lebanon banned from making public pronouncements. She affirms that US is largest donor to Lebanon rather than pushing country to financial ruins as Hezbollah chief Nasrallah claimed.

Jan 21, 2020 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
BREAKING

Deal reached on #Lebanon gov after 3 months of protests amidst deteriorating econ conditions. Line-up of twenty nominal technocrats to be announced, but politically gov even more beholden to pro-Hezbollah coalition.

Here's the who, how and so what of it all. 2- Weeks of wrangling seem to have ended after Hezbollah repeatedly stepped-in to sort out differences amongst allies. Hezb made clear it wants a gov ASAP, particularly after rising street violence & regional uncertainty post #qassemsulaimani killing

Jan 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
BREAKING

Sultan Qaboos of Oman has died 🇴🇲

Key player in regional diplomacy, long believed to be ailing. 🙏🏻 Successor in #Oman unnamed, distinct from other Gulf countries.

Royal family to meet & find agreement on successor. Failing to do so, determination made according to letter left behind by #SultanQaboos

Knowing sultan been ailing, expectation is family have agreement on a name.
Jan 5, 2020 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
1- Nasrallah speaking on #QasemSoleimani killing:

The date of his death is the beginning of a new era, not only for Iraq & Iran, but for the entire region. We are in a new phase. What came before, unlike what will come after 2- Nasrallah: When #QassemSoleimani would visit me (via Damascus airport) he would often cry when recalling the fallen martyrs, hoping he would die like them, and not of all age/sickness. His hope in Martyrdom has been achieved.
Nov 29, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1- Videos emerge reportedly showing crates of fresh US dollars Hezbollah is readying to pay its people.

Nasrallah promised in a speech that Hezbollah will continue to pay (in USD no less) even when #Lebanon government cannot. 💵💵💵💵

End of month, promise kept. 2- Al Manar TV reporter showing off his crisp new dollars at time #Lebanon currency losing its value & dollars hard to find.

This sure to create backlash amongst general Lebanese public. More proof Hezb first/foremost concern is maintaining support in its community, irrespective
Oct 29, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Background on PM Hariri resignation (expected):

1- Hariri threat to quit is attempt to pressure Aoun/Bassil/Hezbollah into accepting new cabinet, under his leadership, free of ministers most objectionable to protesters, FM Bassil first among them

reuters.com/article/us-leb… 2- Pres Aoun reportedly told PM Hariri that FM Bassil is redline. "If you want to send Bassil home you might as well go home yourself." Any new gov including both Bassil & Hariri is unlikely to placate public anger or deliver on much promised reforms.
Oct 16, 2019 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
The fires destroying #Lebanon are not of Mother Nature but of ignorance, corruption, greed & petty sectarianism- the latest manifestation of total moral, social & political meltdown- toxic rivers, overflowing landfills, skyrocketing cancer rates & financial collapse #لبنان_تحترق There is no doubt this catastrophe is in fact man made, but not as their conspiracy theories suggest, but of the systematic environmental degradation & the heaps of trash dumped daily throughout once green valleys.
Sep 30, 2019 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1- As Lebanon currency crises worsens, many asking, is Lebanon too imp too fail? Will Saudi, France, USA or others come to the rescue as they did before?

Short answer: VERY UNLIKELY.

Here's why... 2-Lets start with Saudi, given its history of helping Lebanon. Today Lebanon has President allied to Hezbollah, PM which KSA believes may have helped embezzle billions during last days of King Abdullah & Foreign Minister criticizing it & refusing to even condemn attack on ARAMCO
Sep 1, 2019 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Breaking: Explosions reportedly heard on Israel side of Lebanon border 👇🏻 Breaking: Early reports of anti tank missile fired from Lebanon at Avivim in Israel. Unclear what was targeted💥
Mar 4, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1-Women empowerment & social liberalization in Saudi hardly linear process. Two setbacks as conservatives pushback against attempts to chip away at guardianship laws restricting female freedoms.First is cancellation of popular talk show for breaking taboos
bit.ly/2UiztyY 2-Worth noting that talk show host Daoud Sharyan had been recently appointed President of Radio & TV Authority, & is perceived as having support of Crown Prince. A conserted social media campaign targeted him for addressing flight of Saudi women abroad, drugs, sexuality & poverty
Jan 31, 2019 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
THREAD: After a 9-month gestation period, Lebanon gives birth to government in which 2/3rd of key ministries are controlled by Hezbollah & its allies. Hassan Nasrallah's personal physician Jamil Jabaq named Health Minister.
axios.com/hezbollah-make… While Hezbollah participated in past Lebanon governments, this is most ministers they've had & the first time they've acquired a "service ministry," allowing them potential use of state funds for patronage when the group is under increase financial pressure due to US sanctions