Monkeypox is an Orthopoxvirus like Small Pox or Vaccinia virus. They are brick shaped linear dsDNA viruses that replicate in cytoplasm. They bind to glycosaminoglycans to enter cells or are taken up by apoptotic mimicry #monkeypox #orthopoxvirus 1/n
viralzone.expasy.org/149?outline=al…
Small Pox is the archetypal orthopoxvirus infection of humans which infected humans from prehistory until its eradication in the 20th century through Vaccination. First true success of Vaccines 2/n #Variola #SmallPox #orthopoxvirus
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
History of Small Pox Vaccination is the history of Vaccination itself. Life long immunity produced against Small Pox, which could be mimicked by attenuated cowpox (Vaccinia) was the key to Small Pox eradication 3/n #Vaccinia #SmallPox #orthopoxvirus
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Small pox (Variola) jumped to humans from an unknown rodent in prehistory. It was originally a mild disease, became more severe over time to become the Small Pox we became familiar with. 4/n #variola #smallpox #orthopoxvirus
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Over time, small pox virus lost genes that suppressed immune response, making disease increasingly severe (since it induced lifelong immunity, evolution favored severe disease that could spread more). Viruses do not necessarily always become milder 5/n #smallpox #orthopoxvirus
Monkey Pox originates from rodent reservoirs in Africa, and humans got infected from contact with infected monkeys through bush meat trade or in labs where monkeys were used in research 6/n
It has been happening for decades but what has changed? #monkeypox
cdc.gov/poxvirus/monke…
Vaccination for Small Pox with Vaccinia offers significant but partial protection from Monkey Pox.
Eradication of Small Pox ended small pox vaccination, leaving the door open to other #orthopoxvirus like #monkeypox 7/n
cell.com/trends/microbi…
Increase in the numbers of humans with no immunity to orthopoxviruses like Small Pox after the cessation of Small Pox Vaccine has led to outbreaks in sub-saharan africa like Democratic Republic of Congo 8/n
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Outbreaks of Monkey Pox in the western hemisphere have till recently been zoonosis with human contacts getting infected from exotic animals such as prairie dogs or monkey either through pet trade or laboratory exposures. #monkeypox #orthopoxvirus 9/n
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Current outbreak of #monkeypox which started in United Kingdom has reached Montreal, Canada and Madrid in Spain. It suggests failure of contract tracing.
While Covid protocols should be effective, long incubation period (upto to 21 days) makes it difficult
10/n Monkey Pox outbreak in United Kingdom is remarkable for lack of travel history or exposure to any animal suggesting local community transmission. #monkeypox #orthopoxvirus
who.int/emergencies/di…
The first case (in a family cluster of 3) became symptomatic on 30th April and second on 5th Apr, with another unrelated cluster among gay men.
This puts the earliest date somewhere in April 11/n #monkeypox
who.int/emergencies/di…
Another unrelated case of Monkey pox in an individual who travelled to Nigeria in late April, developed rash on 29th April and returned to UK on May 3-4.
This looks like he got it in UK before going to Nigeria 12/n #monkeypox
who.int/emergencies/di…
Cases identified so far in Spain and Portugal have been in gay men (MSM), and none have symptomatic contact history nor travel history strongly pointing to community transmission 13/n Portugal/Spain is a top holiday destination for Britons
cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…
Tecovirimat: Specific Treatment of Monkey Pox.
Formerly known as ST-246, Tecovirimat, is a virus Efflux inhibitor, has received fast tract FDA approval and is stockpiled by USA for #orthopoxvirus infections 13/n #monkeypox
investor.siga.com/news-releases/…
Join for a chat to discuss the current outbreak, how it is different from previous outbreaks and the prospects for a pandemic
What are the Epidemiologically relevant numbers for Monkey Pox? #monkeypox
R0 ~2 vs 3.5-6 for Small Pox
Small Pox Vaccine provides ~85% protection & reduces risk of severe disease
Asymptomatic cases not known (biased by Congo strain), may not be true 14/n
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
R0 of 2 means that at least 50% or more of the population must be immune to prevent a sustained outbreak. Since Small Pox vaccine provides 85% protection, we need aproximately 60% of the population to have had Small Pox vaccine in the past. Global Vaccination ended by 1982 15/n
History of the Small Pox Vaccination effort in India. I received the vaccine in my primary school in late seventies. Vaccination ended in Democratic Republic of Congo in 1982.
apps.lib.umich.edu/online-exhibit…
Monkey Pox Twitter Spaces No 1
19 May 2022

Monkey Pox: Are we at the cusp of another pandemic

twitter.com/i/spaces/1OwxW…
Clinical features of Monkeypox are similar to Small Pox (which has been eradicated) and needs to be differentiated from chicken pox and other vesicular diseases. 16/n It has more prominent febrile prodrome & longer gap between fever & rash
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24158414/
Presence of glandular swelling (painful, firm and tender lymphnodes, present in two-thirds) is unique to monkey pox, versus variola (small pox) or varicella (chicken pox)
Skin lesions are all in the same phase of evolution, similar to small pox 17/n
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24158414/
Diagnostic options for Monkeypox. Real-Time, quantitative PCR from the lesions would be the most widely available and practical diagnostic test
Antibodies would be useful in tracing sources as part of epidemiological investivations 18/n @RajeevJayadevan
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24158414/
Clinical manifestations of Monkeypox during the outbreak of West African Strain in United States, which has lower mortality (~1%) versus more devastating Central African strain (~10% mortality) 19/n
Lower mortality does not mean patients arent miserable
academic.oup.com/cid/article/41…
Younger subjects and children in particular are more severely affected, which is compounded by lack of small pox immunity in people younger than 40-50 years.
Here is a severely affected child with retropharyngeal abscess 20/n Breathlessness may follow academic.oup.com/cid/article/41…
Note the seizures and confusion (brain involvement) as well as Joint pain and swelling.
When we ignore disease outbreaks in Africa, they fester until they come home to our own homes.
Excellent thread on a Monkeypox outbreak in Africa circa 2018. It was four years ago, inaction then has cost us dear. 21/n @Boghuma
Efficacy of Small Pox Vaccine, a cohort from Kolkata, India 22/n nature.com/articles/14250…
Mortality of 10% among unvaccinated children who contracted small pox is not at all different from the Central African strain of Monkey pox. We are lucky it is the west african strain now
Does Monkey Pox have asymptomatic transmission?
Seropositivity in otherwise "unaffected" people would prove asymptomatic infection. Here is a study in Sierra Leone showing exactly such asymptomatic seropositivity. @DrEricDing #monkeypox 22/n
bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Serological testing of "upstream" contacts of the monkeypox cases can help nail down potential asymptomatic transmission and close the loop of transmission chains. Note that antibodies are not useful in current diagnosis but helpful for recent infection 23/n
WHO summary on Monkey Pox has all the relevant information updated minutes ago. #MPX #monkeypox
who.int/news-room/fact…
MonkeyPox Epidemiology. This is a pandemic 5 decades in the making, steadily gaining strength in sub-Saharan Africa, while opportunity to test Vaccines & Drugs were missed. 1/n
#monkeypox #orthopoxvirus #epidemiology
journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
MonkeyPox Case numbers have been rising steadily in Africa, mainly in Democratic Republic of Congo for the last 5 decades as the herd immunity to #orthopoxvirus SmallPox has been declining with cessation of Vaccination. 2/n #monkeypox #epidemiology #MPX
journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
Although the current outbreak outside Africa is of West African clade with relatively lower mortality 1-3%, both the strains have been rising exponentially over the decades
#monkeypox #orthopoxvirus
With such large numbers in Africa, it was about time 3/n
journals.plos.org/plosntds/artic…
What does Monkey Pox in Africa teach us?
~15% of cases in Democratic Republic of Congo have no history of contact with either animals or human cases.
Has the rate of asymptomatic transmission rise, allowing the spillover to spread this far.#monkeypox
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
Evolution of Variola (small pox) in humans was characterised by loss of genes over time. #Variola #SmallPox
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

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More from @abledoc

May 8
Location matters for Covid Vaccine.
Booster Vaccination on the same side as the original Prime shot produces better quality antibodies than on the opposite side even though antibody titres were similar #CovidVaccine @VirusesImmunity #Immunity 1/n
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Booster Vaccination on the Ipsilateral (same) side produced higher avidity antibodies as opposed to booster on the contralateral (opposite side), #CovidVaccine 2/n
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Affinity vs Avidity
Affinity is the strength of a single antibody binding its cognate epitope whereas avidity relates to the strength of polyclonal antibodies (like in real antibody responses) binding to antigens as different antibodies can bind to different epitopes 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Jan 8
Early use of high titer neutralisatiing Convalescent Plasma in outpatients reduce hospitalisation. 1/n
#COVID19 #PlasmaTherapy
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
So what was wrong with previous attempts at Plasma therapy?
1) Reliable assays for Neutralising Antibodies werent widely available earlier
2) We did not know what titer was high enough
3) Most studies were done in serious ill hospitalised patients 2/n
Why do we need convalescent Plasma in the age of Monoclonal antibodies?
Most monoclonal antibodies are ineffective against Omicron and the ones that retain activity are limited in supply and hoarded by @JoeBiden
Other folks at high risk may need an alternative 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6
Pointless bureaucratic torture “endless meetings where you know nothing would get done” forces @SpaceXStarlink India chief to quit, in huge setback to the image of India as a business friendly destination. @SpaceX @NITIAayog #StarLink
republicworld.com/india-news/gen…
Image
If there is to be any movement on Starlink from Indian bureaucracy, @SpaceX has to take 5% stake in Mukesh Ambani or Adani companies in true Mark Zuckerberg style.
Starlink is a threat to Reliance investment in Telecom.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28, 2021
Shielding Strategy where high risk individuals in UK were told to "shield" themselves from #COVID19 a huge failure in Scotland as the shielded subjects contracted severe covid at higher rates. @dgurdasani1 @PaulNuki @pash22 #shielding #SARSCovid2
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
High Risk Individuals eligible for shielding had higher exposure to hospitals.
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Recent exposure to hospitals were associated with increased risk of Covid19 in high risk individuals eligible for shielding in Scotland.
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 27, 2021
What has been the true extant of the COVID19 pandemic in United states after accounting for underdiagnosis and misreporting? The pandemic still has a long way to run its course. #COVID19
pnas.org/content/118/31…
Has United States reached sufficient levels of Immunity to prevent another wave. While 80% of the popultion may have some immunity, this is subject to R0
R0 started at 6, and the virus has become 2.5 times more infective. Probably higher levels needed.
pnas.org/content/118/31…
Course of the epidmic in terms of Incidence, reproductive rate R(t) and cumulative cases in Ohio and Indiana
Natural infections have only reached 20-25% and the gap needs to be filled by vaccination.
Read 4 tweets
May 6, 2021
"Social Distancing" is a term coined by (math inclined) epidemic modellers and misunderstood by public & even by most public health "experts"
So what does it mean. 1/n
Lets start with the factors affecting R0 (Basic Reproductive Rate) that critically determines an outbreak...
R0 (Basic Reproductive Rate)
= (Avge number of people one meets in a day) * (Probability of Transmission) * (Number of Infective days)
Thus R0 is not a fixed number but influenced & modified by behaviour.
Meeting & interacting with fewer people reduces R0 (Social Distancing) 2/n
Keeping 2m/6 feet distance distance reduces droplet transmission (Probability of Transmission, 2nd term), physical distancing is confused as Social distancing
Masks, Vaccination etc all reduce the second factor in R0
@s_harley1 @PriyankaPulla @JoyAnnReid
3/n
Read 9 tweets

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