Quick #lithium update from @Fastmarkets...
CIF #hydroxide slightly firmer on the week, #carbonate flat. Domestic #China market also sideways for both compounds but sentiment more bullish. Looking ominous for consumer restocking hopes if this is the extent of the spot 'pullback'.
A few key quotes from the market:
Intl consumer: “Demand for lithium hydroxide remains strong in the seaborne market, while spot supply is tight. Lithium consumers in Japan and South Korea are sending many inquiries to Chinese sellers.”
Chinese producer: “Chinese sellers are not lowering their offers for lithium hydroxide amid expectations of a price rise in the near term, when the Chinese market recovers from the most recent outbreaks of Covid-19.”
Japanese trader: “Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the supply of Russian material in Japan has been cut off. This exacerbates the tightness in the supply of lithium hydroxide in the seaborne market”.
Several participants noted a slight recovery of domestic demand for lithium carbonate from the LFP battery sector, citing a gradual resumption of downstream EV production, though some played down its extent calling it "too subtle."
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Picked out a few industry participant quotes from the @Fastmarkets Editorial team's commentary this week to paint the picture of the #lithium spot market at the moment. Real mix of ↗️/➡️/↘️ sentiment, but domestic scene notably more downbeat than seaborne...
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↘️ Chinese trader: “The markets are very transparent. Buyers know that domestic prices in China are lower and the Chinese yuan is getting weaker, and they expect seaborne lithium prices to drift lower.”
↘️ Chinese producer: “We are willing to lower our offers for battery-grade lithium hydroxide slightly. Amid the weaker Chinese yuan, our margins will not be influenced much if we lower our offers”
One result of the @LME_news#nickel madness has been people questioning the wisdom of hedging in nascent derivative markets like #cobalt & #lithium if the risks of wipeout margin calls could undermine any risk mitigation. It's a fair concern, but one that's broadly unfounded...🧵
2/ The key distinction is between physically-settled & cash-settled futures. The meme move on Ni was the result of a short squeeze on a contract requiring physical delivery of expiring positions - "he who sells what is'n his'n must pay the price or go to prisn" as they say
3/ Co & Li on @LME_news, @CMEGroup & soon @SGX are cash-settled basis @Fastmarkets prices, & it's infinitely more difficult to squeeze & move an open spot market assessed by a PRA than it is an exchange delivery point based system (see also Apr 2020 WTI example)
Two recent @Fastmarkets articles explain an interesting dynamic unfolding in the Chinese #cobalt market:
Cobalt sulphate price has hit a 3-year high driven in part by strong downstream demand, but particularly by tightness in supply of the upstream feedstock, cobalt hydroxide, due to logistics issues getting material from the #DRC out via #SouthAfrica: dashboard.fastmarkets.com/launch?url=/a/…
Market participants are not anticipating the problems to be resolved in the near term: “I don’t think the logistics issues from South Africa to China will ease in the first quarter or even the first half of 2022,” a cobalt hydroxide supplier said.
1/ #China released its working guidance for achieving #carbon emissions peak by 2030 & neutrality by 2060 last weekend and it contains some pretty significant implications for nearly all commodity markets: metalbulletin.com/Article/401353…
2/ At face value it spells out ambitious overhauls to see industries like energy, steel, NF metals, petchems, transport & construction to reach peak CO2 before 2030, strictly controlling new projects in high-emission sectors such as steel, cement, glass & aluminium.
3/ Meanwhile new energy materials & vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing will accelerate as strategic emerging industries. To achieve non-fossil energy consumption of >80% by 2060 China will also focus on renewables incl wind, solar, biomass, tidal & geothermal.