Thread by @ZimermanErik

Yesterday, #Russian sources released intel that #Ukraine was planning a large offensive of 32 BTGs (~20k men) in the #Kherson region. UA's supply lines here are much shorter & stronger than in Donbass & RU's air superiority much less. It seems to have started in the last 3 hours.

Being able to push back Russia east across the Dnieper would be a great achievement by UA forces. On the other hand, even making Russia divert forces from the Donbass to hold the line would be helpful to #Ukraine. Since they have so much trouble getting men & supplies to the east

and in fact so many units now that refuse to fight in the east, this tactically would make sense for Ukraine. The only suspicion comes from the announcement yesterday by Russian sources. If it indeed it was a leaked secret, than the Russians have a heads up, but it seems UA

launched the offensive anyways. It may have moved up the timeline and launched today due to the leak yesterday. On the other hand, if rather than a revelation, it was an intentional leak by UA, then the offensive may be a ruse, intended to divert RU forces from the east without

having to commit or endanger much around #Kherson. We will see. In theory, a #Ukrainian push in the region should be possible because the ground is very flat (poor for defense, good for offense), and UA forces here outnumber RU forces by a large factor.

On the other hand, #Kherson is a large city under RU hands for a long while, and it is supplied by rail from Crimea & Donetsk ports as well by rail directly from Russia. The front line has been stable for quite a while and RU forces have had time to dig in. Additionally there are

a couple of rivers that need to be crossed by UA if it advances solely from the west (and not simultaneously from the north as it should). UA has not wielded thus far any field units that can actually maneuver and advance in the open against determined RU resistance.

More so, its best field units are either gone or stuck barely holding the line in the east. Could these newly raised "32 BTGs" be of a quality enough to do so? If so (undoubtedly wielding newly supplied western weapons), that would be quite an achievement. Beyond that even if the

UA forces could advance in the open and seize towns and villages from RU (when it really wants to defend them), it is another story to take a large city such as Kherson in urban combat. We have seen how difficult it has been for RU forces to capture large urban centers.

Ukraine has shown no ability thus far to do that during this war. In Kherson there is a significant amount of pro Russian support, and being supplied by rail (as long as the bridges stand), it would take a massive force to capture it. If he Russians chose to defend it, it would

also entail the destruction of much of the city. Will the western media accuse UA of war crimes in that situation as they do RU (of course not) when UA choses to defend cities? In summary, a large offensive is indeed on its way, with heavy artillery the opening salvo.

Speculation on my part is that UA will not make much of an advance here if any. They may get nearer to Kherson in certain places but will not be able to capture the city. They may however, succeed in their effort to divert RU forces from the east to shore up the front here

The risk they run, is showing that these newly formed and inexperienced formations, despite their numerical superiority, suffer heavily in open assaults or even refuse to (or are incapable of) even perform them. In short, the ability or inability of UA forces to significantly

advance on Kherson will be very telling about the situation going forward in this war. It will in part answer the question, that whether with time and western support, Ukraine is able to raise, train, field and supply field forces able to push the Russian army back.

Even if at first, only in the west, a positive answer to this question would change the known strategic situation (I don't mean what the news media says) very significantly. So we shall see.

#Stanislav #Kitneve #Kherson