1/7 On #defence and #security policy choices in the #IndoPacific :
I recently produced research assessing how 12 nations are aligning, looking at defence spending, arms imports, military exercises, intel sharing, and force presence agreements.
3/7 A statistical analysis on trends in stocks of imported armaments shows most countries with a break (a change) around the year 2014 - this is consistent with threat perceptions towards #China going up around 2012.
4/7 It gets interesting with data on multinational military exercises - since around 2012, military exercises involving U.S. Allies in the region begin to attract new partner nations, and exercise scenarios orient more towards high intensity warfare.
5/7 Similarly with Force Presence Agreements (Status of Forces / Visiting Forces / Reciprocal Access), some interesting developments post 2012, notably involving #Japan - with #Australia and most recently the #UK
6/7 And at the same time, total defence spending in the region hasn't gone through large shifts if measured as a percentage of GDP - that was the initial research puzzle. But pulling in additional indicators helps make sense of the regional picture.
7/7 The paper is published with the journal Defence and Peace Economics and is available Open Access.
1-11
Quite some meltdown around Boris Johnson's claim that Trump would actually back Ukraine.
Notably from pro-Kremlin accounts, who are clearly fearful this might be true.
And from decent political liberals who dislike both men.
But the former is more interesting.
2-11
Ukraine is a legacy issue for Johnson. It is the one big thing he did which he knew was right, that the country knew was right, that the world knew was right. And he continued to argue for Ukraine after leaving office.
3-11
Hence it is not a small data point to see Johnson claim that Trump would actually back Ukraine.
Recall that Johnson publicly challenged one of the most powerful men on the American populist right, Tucker Carlson, on this issue.
This confirms the nationalist-populist and proto-authoritarian nature of a possible 2nd Trump term, which would be acutely dangerous to Ukraine, to European security, and to any small or medium-sized nation anywhere.
1-10
JD Vance has repeatedly broadcast hostile views regarding Ukraine's righteous struggle to defend itself and regarding America's commitment to European security.
=> he is Moscow's dream VP pick
2-10
The VP pick matters because it cements the ideological direction of America.
In case of a Trump win, in case of Trump dying or being incapacitated during his 2nd term, America would remain wedded to a nationalist and isolationist course that is favourable to Moscow.
A feature of French politics almost never discussed outside France -- because it would require knowing the language and consuming French media -- is that it has acquired a large right-wing media ecosystem in the last 8 years, notably television.
1-8
This trend has co-accelerated with the continued success and diversification of less moderate right-wing views, ranging from a French version of 'national conservatism' to the positions of the far-right National Rally party (former National Front, of the Le Pen dynasty).
2-8
There isn't much reporting on these developments in the English language. However, this NYT article from 2021 gives an introduction to the topic.
The central phenomenon is the rise of a right-wing opinion TV station called CNews.
A crucial data point:
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen says the Danish F-16s headed to Ukraine soon are authorised to "target installations on the attacking party's own territory" including, for example, "weapons depots" ✔️
The line is simple, it's International Law: Ukrainians shouldn't target civilians in Russia, even though Russia does that against Ukraine.
And so DNK's position is without caveats: targets may be on the ground or in the airspace (or the waters) of the aggressor state ✔️
2-8
Of course Russia is in a state of deep panic at this very sensible policy, with the Ambassador of the aggressor state threatening all sorts of consequences.
The Danish Minister knows how to respond: this is "propaganda war" ✔️
3-8
I've read Macron's speech in full.
It is actually quite good.
As is common with Macron, nothing is incorrect.
And there is also an emerging coherence to everything he touches on.
Summarising the speech would make this a 50+ post thread and I won't go there. But here are some essentials:
- Europe needs stronger defence capabilities, and more of them home-grown and self-reliant, based on a stronger, more coherent European defence industry
3-22
- Europe needs a comprehensive economic security policy that address all critical dependencies, from food and energy to semiconductors and social media
Velina makes a relevant point, namely that Polish President Duda's private meeting with Donald Trump likely had an important positive impact for what followed.
Note that the Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda also believes that this was the case (link follows).
Looking back, Lithuanian President Nausėda said that "the talks with Trump were positive, they yielded a positive result, and I'm very happy about this achievement by Mr Duda."