Karen Braun Profile picture
May 24 4 tweets 3 min read
May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14. Image
A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs. Image
U.S. planting progress and China/Brazil trade prospects weighed down the corn market Tuesday. U.S. corn planting is still historically slow, but not 2019, no-end-in-sight slow. China cleared Brazilian corn for import, causing concerns for US competitiveness into China.
Most-active CBOT #wheat & #soybeans closed above averages (20, 50, 100, 200 day) on Tuesday. New-crop soybeans have gained on #corn in recent sessions and are at the highest point since late March. Still far from what we could call "soybean territory" (see 2016). Image

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More from @kannbwx

May 26
USDA will allow U.S. farmers to plant on acres currently parts of the federal conservation program with no penalty in order to ease global food supply worries. The offer is open to farmers in the final year of their contract with USDA's CRP program. Image
I've discussed this before on here. Given that June is in less than a week, I believe farmers would have needed significantly more notice in order to make anything happen this year. Don't forget, planting crops is incredibly expensive this year.
Just one year ago (when grain prices were already at multi-year spring highs), USDA was attempting to add more acres to CRP in both the short and long term for climate mitigation purposes. That announcement is here:
fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news…
Read 4 tweets
May 24
USDA's attache in #Ukraine has just published its first report since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. Topic is role of Ukrainian households in agricultural production, now extra important for food security given the war. Households occupy 30% of ag land. Potatoes are a top crop. Image
We missed Grain & Feed/Oilseeds annual reports, incl. 2022/23 projections. USDA hasn't necessarily said its Kyiv attache is not operating, but info remains thin. Report says #Ukraine's State Statistics Service has officially stopped publishing all new data until the war is over.
So really, question is: is USDA's info stream out of Ukraine sufficient? Reliable? I asked that Q at the USDA Data Users' meeting in April and got a kinda evasive answer. But lack of reports instills at least some doubt, some question. Here's the report: apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api…
Read 4 tweets
May 24
#China has signed an agreement with #Brazil to allow imports of 🇧🇷 #corn, previously subject to phytosanitary restrictions.

These are Brazil's top customers. Iran, Egypt & Spain in particular overlap with Ukraine, China's usual go-to supplier. Japan and S Korea overlap w/ USA. Image
Those original 7 countries I showed account for 2/3 of #Brazil's annual #corn shipments. Taiwan also overlaps with USA, as does Mexico when adding some secondary Brazilian buyers.

Will be lots of secondary overlaps because countries that don't grow corn NEED corn! 🌽 Image
Here's a reminder of where USA, #Ukraine & #Argentina export #corn for comparison. Two USA charts: 1 shows recent buyers and then another shows buyers' shares pre-#China (China started buying US big in 2020). Argy chart is from USDA/FAS.

USA+BR+AR+UA = 85% of world corn exports ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 23
U.S. spring #wheat planting is advancing at the slowest pace in more than 20 years and was only 49% complete as of Sunday. Average for the date is 83%. Minnesota is only 11% planted vs 90% avg. North Dakota 27% vs 80% avg. Those two states grow two-thirds of the U.S. crop.
Just a reminder, this has to do with extremely wet spring weather in much of the Northern Plains. That area faced a bad drought last year, but too much rain in April and some rains/cool weather since then has kept farmers and their heavy equipment out of fields.
Update: U.S. spring #wheat planting progress at 49% complete as of May 22 is the SLOWEST in records back to 1981. Next slowest for the date is 1995, but 2011 is the slowest from late May forward.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
The Indiana #CropWatch22 #corn was planted May 19, the 9th of 11 total. North Dakota & Ohio plan on this week, but highly weather dependent. Drought this year in Kansas allowed it to be the only Crop Watch corn field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 added #soybeans in South Dakota, W Iowa and Ohio last week. Just North Dakota remains, and the potential timing is totally unknown yet. Things are day by day in ND right now, and the focus is on corn. W Illinois is the only bean field planted earlier than in 2021.
#CropWatch22 planting comparison w/ 2019. Only 3 of 8 #corn fields were planted earlier in 22 than 19. 6 of 8 #soybeans earlier in 22 than 19 (unsure if ND will make it 7 of 8). CW had 8 corn/8 soy fields in 2019; SD, W IA & W IL were added in 2021.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
It's finally a beautiful evening to plant #corn in western Illinois. This is the last of four Illinois #CropWatch22 fields to be planted, and the 8th of 22 total.
It was a decent night to plant #corn in Minnesota Saturday night, though rain was forecast Sunday, so the #CropWatch22 corn was finished 4:30 am Sunday morning. The South Dakota corn also went late into the night Sat-Sun, finishing at 2 am. Needing to beat some weather.
Not the common early sight for #CropWatch22 this year, but the SE Illinois fields, both planted April 23, have emerged. This was the earlier stuff the producer planted this season - his planting is still in progress.
Read 4 tweets

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