Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #soybeans

Most recents (24)

As #tech sold off in the last 2 weeks, there were still places that were resilient during this time period. Whether tech gets through the consolidation phase or breaks lower, time will tell.

Meanwhile few ideas on longs and shorts going forward. 1/
On the long side, equity exposure in #transports, #materials and int'l mkts like #Germany and #Korea worked well. Exposure in these areas continues to stay bullish.

Vols are showing upticks as well, so should stay careful.

Commodities in bullish trend while #Gold and #Silver are consolidating for the time being: #Palladium, #Copper, #Coffee, #SoyBeans


Read 7 tweets
At the top of the hour- farmdoc webinar, May 26th.

* Updated Perspectives on the #Pandemic and Policy Responses

* Register Here: Image
Jonathan Coppess Image
Policy Responses: Payments & More Payments. Image
Read 30 tweets
An unprecedented amount of #soybeans are headed from South America to Asia right now. #Brazil shipped an unheard-of 16.3 million tonnes of soybeans in April, including 11.8 million to #China.

Such a big difference in traffic from seven weeks ago. ImageImage
Another cool view, looking at all vessels carrying ag goods, January 30 vs. May 11. Most of the traffic, esp. on May 11, is #soybeans heading from #Brazil to #China.

Not much #corn shipped lately, but Brazil's #pork exports have easily hit records every month so far in 2020. ImageImage
Another anecdote about these graphics.... there were SO MANY vessels in view that I had a really hard time getting them to all display at once (and not just say, "200 vessels in this area"), especially with #soybeans. Had to expertly maneuver the view. Has never happened before!
Read 3 tweets
Inspections (proxy to exports) of U.S. #soybeans need to avg around 740,000 t/wk to hit USDA's 19/20 exports of 1.775 bbu. Shipments haven't been that strong since Feb.

That's = to 2018's pace and < 2019's pace, but the problem is low sales. And prob only #China can fix that. Image
As of April 30 (w/ 4 months left in 19/20), U.S. #soybeans were 8.6 mmt (316 mbu) short on sales for USDA's 1.775 bln bu total.

In 2016, May-Aug old-crop sales were 6.6 mmt, but in the last 3 years they were 3.6-3.8 mmt. So 8.6 mmt is A LOT. And only #China could need that much.
And recall the 2016 sales spike was when #Brazil's crop came up short. It was also right before USA and BR really got ahead of #China's huge demand surge and ramped up production (remember 90 mln U.S. acres in 2017??).

Brazil is having no trouble supplying China this year.
Read 3 tweets
At the top of the hour- farmdoc webinar, April 28.

* @farmdocDaily Live | #COVID19 and Ag.

* @nickdpaulson and @JoeGlauber1 on #Agricultural #Trade.
Nick Paulson
Importance of Ag #Export Markets
Export Share of U.S. Production, 2017/18
Read 32 tweets
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Chinese Commitments

1/ To purchase at least an additional $200 billion in U.S. exports over the next 2 years (base: 2017).

2/ To do more to crack down on the theft of American technology and corporate secrets by its companies and state entities.
3/ To avoid currency manipulation.

4/ To bring forward the planned opening of its capital market.

5/ To set up a system to resolve conflicts over drug patents.

6/ To endorse an enforcement system.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Phase One #Trade Deal: Full Texts En/Cn

#China’s Ministry of Finance published both English and Chinese versions of the text - Statement
*Link (Chinese):
Read 28 tweets
This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion.
And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.
I posted this as a reply below, but worth repeating:

The max annual combined export value of U.S. #pork and #soybeans to ALL destinations: $31 billion in 2012.

Add in #corn (TOTAL, to ALL buyers): $41 billion in 2014.
Read 7 tweets
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 #China Hints U.S. Blacklist Imminent in Threat to #Trade Talks - Bloomberg

@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Here’s What Happens to Markets If U.S. Tariffs on #China Kick in Dec. 15 - Bloomberg…
@niubi 🇨🇳 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 #Huawei plans to shift research center to #Canada from U.S.: Globe and Mail - Reuters…
Read 219 tweets
@niubi 🇨🇳 🌎 🇺🇸 #China to Raise Penalties on #IP Rights Violations - Bloomberg
*Guidelines (Chinese):…
@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Another reason for #Trump administration to reach a partial trade deal with #China soon.

@niubi 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 US moves closer to resuming chicken exports to #China as #Beijing approves processing plants - SCMP…
Read 218 tweets
In light of the Grain Stocks report, a comment was made a 'model' wouldn't have gotten you there for #corn. I found this presentation I gave at a Grain Stocks session for @AMISoutlook in China (of all places) in 2015 to talk about stock survey's vs feed demand surveys. #corn
@AMISoutlook It is definitely for the #WASDE nerds. This was also the same meeting where the China rep had 30 min to speak and who's whole presentation was 'In China grain stocks are a state secret, I cannot tell you them, any questions?" #corn #soybeans
@AMISoutlook So the presentation goes into the components of the balance sheet for #corn and tries to convince the Chinese to do a stock survey (even if just commercials) and ignore calls for a feed survey (who can count all those ducks?!) #corn #wasde. Again just for the #WASDE nerds.
Read 42 tweets
CBOT Dec19 #corn around $3.74/bushel today. Perhaps lower than what some had been thinking back in June but not "low" by any means - it's a 4-year high for the date. December corn hasn't been above $4 after mid-August since 2013.
Looking at 6 years of Nov #soybeans, there are 2 distinct packs, but 2019 is leading the lower one around $8.88/bu today. Last year was the lowest & we are above 2015. But if you look at supplies in late 2015 vs. now/2018, wow. By today's standards, is that beans in the teens? 😉
To elaborate, Sep forecasts, US ending stocks, s/u:
2015: 450 mbu 12% (final 197 5%)
2018: 845 mbu 20% (final ? but ~1 bln bu, 25% ish)
2019: 640 mbu 16%

By the way, back in 2015/16, 450 mbu was less than 7 weeks worth of #China's demand for #soybeans.
Read 3 tweets
While #China’s #export to US has been negatively impacted due to #trade war, that to other countries were less affected, which has been more associated with global demand than shift in industrial chains, according to a recent report by Zhang Bin…
In response to US #tariffs, China has taken reasonable countermeasures to reduce negative effects on its own economy - not target technological products that account for large proportion of imports for which it’s difficult to find substitutes
China’s dependence on some of the US’s #technology-intensive industries is relatively high. It belatedly imposed tariffs on these goods, and the number of specific goods subject to China’s tariffs is relatively small. Image
Read 5 tweets
Bad weather in the United States and disease in China are threatening food shortages globally and massive inflation. Our national security and stability is at stake over the next few years.
One of the biggest reasons inflation has remained so low over the past half decade is record growing seasons in the United States and Russia for #corn #wheat and #soybeans However this year is the worst season on record as cold, rainy weather delayed #plant19 by several weeks.
Planting progress for all three crops was beyond dismal this year. In fact, it was the slowest planting progress ever on record and many farmers simply chose to skip this year.
Read 21 tweets
#China’s #imports fell by 2.5% in May from a year earlier. In #dollar terms, the imports decreased by 8.5%, the biggest drop since July 2016.
3 possible reasons for this:

1. Base effect. #China's imports surged by as high as 15.6% in the same period last year, a high base. So the growth rate of exports this May declined slightly.
2. Impacted by #trade frictions, imports of bulk #commodities such as crude #oil and natural #gas fell. #Imports of #soybeans fell by 24% to 7.362 million tons.
Read 4 tweets
Only 67% of U.S. #corn was planted as of June 2, well below the five-year average of 96%. That is +9 points on the week and below the trade guess of 71%.

The planting pace has been RECORD slow for 2.5 weeks now. #plant19
U.S. #soybeans were 39% planted as of June 2, now the SLOWEST on record and well below the average of 79%. That is +10 points on the week. The trade was expecting progress at 42%. #plant19
#Corn planting, June 2 (5yr avg):
Illinois 45% (98%)
Indiana 31% (94%)
Ohio 33% (90%)
Iowa 80% (99%)
Minnesota 76% (98%)
Nebraska 88% (98%)
S Dakota 44% (96%)
Michigan 42% (87%)
Missouri 69% (97%)
Wisconsin 58% (91%)
N Dakota 81% (93%)
Kansas 79% (93%)
Read 5 tweets
A view of the #CropWatch19 #corn field in southern Illinois. Half of the 90 acres needs replanting but it is far too wet to attempt that now. And more rain may be coming early next week. Planted May 18.
Here's the end rows on the higher ground. #Corn in this part of the field is looking average at best right now.
The #CropWatch19 #soybeans in southern Illinois, right next to the corn, are in better shape than the corn but at least 10 acres of the 90 need replanting - if it ever dries up.
Read 5 tweets
USA planted 8.4 million acres of #corn in the week ended May 26, but there is still almost 39 million to go. Illinois planted the most (1.2 mln acres) but they still have the most to plant (7.3 mln). South Dakota still has 4.5m to go and Indiana 4.3m. #plant19
Nebraska's final planting date for full insurance was May 25, as was most of North and South Dakota. Just the corn-heavy southeast portion of SD, as well as a couple counties in SE ND, have until May 31. All of IA, MN, WI. MO, and KS will also be at the cutoff by May 31.
As of May 26, U.S. farmers still had 60 million acres of #soybeans left to plant. North Dakota planted 1.43 million acres last week - the most by far of any state. Illinois has the most left to do at 9 million. Insurance dates are still 2-4 weeks away. #plant19
Read 3 tweets
Only 58% of U.S. #corn was planted as of May 26, the slowest pace on record. That is only +9 points on the week and drastically lower than the average of 90%. The trade was expecting 63%. #plant19
U.S. #soybeans were 29% planted as of May 26 versus 19% in the previous week and an average of 66%. Trade expected 31%. Spring #wheat was 84% planted versus 70% in the previous week and an average of 91%. Trade expected 83% on spring wheat. #plant19
#Corn planting progress, May 26:
Illinois 35% (5yr avg 95%)
Indiana 22% (avg 85%)
Iowa 76% (96%)
Minnesota 66% (93%)
Nebraska 81% (94%)
Ohio 22% (78%)
N Dakota 63% (85%)
S Dakota 25% (90%)
Wisconsin 46% (82%)
Missouri 65% (95%)
Kansas 70% (88%)
Michigan 33% (73%)
Read 7 tweets
U.S. planting progress, May 12:
#Corn 30% (23% last week, 66% average, trade guess 35%)
#Soybeans 9% (6% last week, 29% avg, trade guess 15%)
Spring #wheat 45% (22% last week, 67% avg, trade guess 35%)
Notable delays, #corn:
Illinois 11% (5y avg 82%)
Indiana 6% (avg 57%)
Iowa 48% (76%)
Minn 21% (65%)
Ohio 4% (47%)
Nebraska 46% (72%)
N Dak 11% (43%)
S Dak 4% (54%)
Michigan 5% (34%)
Wisconsin 14% (46%)
Missouri 52% (87%)
Notable delays, #soybeans:
Illinois 3% (5yr avg 34%)
Indiana 2% (26%)
Iowa 13% (31%)
Arkansas 21% (53%)
Mississippi 33% (69%)
Louisiana 53% (75%)
Minnesota 3% (36%)
N Dak 5% (20%)
S Dak 0% (19%)
Wisconsin 4% (17%)
Michigan 3% (17%)
Ohio 2% (20%)
Nebraska 20% (32%)
Read 3 tweets
FRIDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: And I’d like to talk energy, but really, I’ve got to talk trade first after we’ve got new tariffs coming, a lot of research notes, and very nervous markets… #OOTT #tradewar #China #trade
… as always you can follow our coverage here on Our lead story right now is, the US escalated the trade war with more tariffs after the Chinese made major changes in the agreement that blew everything up earlier in the week.…
Trump has said he’s in no rush to complete the deal. So we’ve got that going for us. #trade #china Ttradewar…
Read 26 tweets
Tweets from Trump just now:

"With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance."
And next in the chain:

"Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped."
Not sure which agricultural products he's talking about, but we have an oversupply of soybeans and we're heading there on corn. Poor & starving nations don't have robust livestock industries so I'm not sure how this is supposed to work. People don't eat corn/soybeans.
Read 8 tweets
Read 819 tweets
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
Read 736 tweets

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