🌽It's hard to tell 2023 (so far) apart from 2012 or 2013 on a new-crop #corn chart. Nearly identical.
But 2012 and 2013 are about to break up in a BIG way, and U.S. weather was the catalyst. Where 2023 heads depends on (much needed) Midwest rains in the coming weeks. Look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day U.S. weather outlooks from June 5, 2012 & 2023. Prices softened into June 2012 because weather outlooks weren't disastrous (yet). I'm not saying AT ALL (seriously) that 2012 is our eventual outcome, but I highly value reviews of past thinking.

Harvested area for U.S. #soybeans fell toward the low end of the trade range. The overall 580k drop was driven by mid-south & eastern states, along with a 900k acre combined reduction across IL-IA-SD. Planted acres = 87.5M (was 88 in Aug). Trade's been wanting higher soy acres since the low side shocker in June. IMO, we might be placing too much emphasis on FSA data or are drawing incorrect conclusions from it. The way the data is collected has changed in recent years, so "completeness" analyses prob aren't useful.

🇺🇸A brief history of U.S. #corn yield growth since the 1860s 🌽 Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example). I didn't include all possible difference makers on the chart, just the top ones, but there are probably other things I could include. Anyone have suggestions?

This shows just how bad the 1988 & 2012 droughts were (you can also see 1983, 1993, etc in there).

U.S. spring #wheat planting was near record slow as of Sunday at 73% complete, as wet weather has delayed top growers North Dakota & Minnesota. Spring wheat accounts for 32% of the full U.S. wheat crop, and last year's spring harvest was the smallest since 1988 due to drought. North Dakota grows about half of the U.S. spring #wheat, but Minnesota, accounting for 14% of production, is planting at the slowest pace ever. Almost no wheat got planted in the state until last week. Still, it is uncertain just how many of MN's intended acres will get planted.

North Dakota is planting #corn & #soybeans at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant 🌽 and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn. North Dakota grows 5% of U.S. #soybeans, a large portion of which get exported to China. Only 23% of ND's beans were planted by May 29 vs 86% last year. Final crop insurance planting date is June 10, but to complete planting, ND cannot have any more rainy episodes from here.

USDA will allow U.S. farmers to plant on acres currently parts of the federal conservation program with no penalty in order to ease global food supply worries. The offer is open to farmers in the final year of their contract with USDA's CRP program. I've discussed this before on here. Given that June is in less than a week, I believe farmers would have needed significantly more notice in order to make anything happen this year. Don't forget, planting crops is incredibly expensive this year.

May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14. A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs.

USDA's attache in #Ukraine has just published its first report since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. Topic is role of Ukrainian households in agricultural production, now extra important for food security given the war. Households occupy 30% of ag land. Potatoes are a top crop. We missed Grain & Feed/Oilseeds annual reports, incl. 2022/23 projections. USDA hasn't necessarily said its Kyiv attache is not operating, but info remains thin. Report says #Ukraine's State Statistics Service has officially stopped publishing all new data until the war is over.

#China has signed an agreement with #Brazil to allow imports of 🇧🇷 #corn, previously subject to phytosanitary restrictions.

These are Brazil's top customers. Iran, Egypt & Spain in particular overlap with Ukraine, China's usual go-to supplier. Japan and S Korea overlap w/ USA. Those original 7 countries I showed account for 2/3 of #Brazil's annual #corn shipments. Taiwan also overlaps with USA, as does Mexico when adding some secondary Brazilian buyers.

Will be lots of secondary overlaps because countries that don't grow corn NEED corn! 🌽

U.S. spring #wheat planting is advancing at the slowest pace in more than 20 years and was only 49% complete as of Sunday. Average for the date is 83%. Minnesota is only 11% planted vs 90% avg. North Dakota 27% vs 80% avg. Those two states grow two-thirds of the U.S. crop. Just a reminder, this has to do with extremely wet spring weather in much of the Northern Plains. That area faced a bad drought last year, but too much rain in April and some rains/cool weather since then has kept farmers and their heavy equipment out of fields.

The Indiana #CropWatch22 #corn was planted May 19, the 9th of 11 total. North Dakota & Ohio plan on this week, but highly weather dependent. Drought this year in Kansas allowed it to be the only Crop Watch corn field planted earlier than in 2021. #CropWatch22 added #soybeans in South Dakota, W Iowa and Ohio last week. Just North Dakota remains, and the potential timing is totally unknown yet. Things are day by day in ND right now, and the focus is on corn. W Illinois is the only bean field planted earlier than in 2021.

It's finally a beautiful evening to plant #corn in western Illinois. This is the last of four Illinois #CropWatch22 fields to be planted, and the 8th of 22 total. It was a decent night to plant #corn in Minnesota Saturday night, though rain was forecast Sunday, so the #CropWatch22 corn was finished 4:30 am Sunday morning. The South Dakota corn also went late into the night Sat-Sun, finishing at 2 am. Needing to beat some weather.

🌽Global #corn export thread🌽

🇺🇸USA, 🇧🇷#Brazil, 🇦🇷#Argentina & 🇺🇦#Ukraine account for 85% of the world's corn exports. But who ships where?

🇺🇸Let's start in top exporter USA. China, Mexico & Japan were the destinations for 69% of all shipments last year. 🇺🇸USA only started shipping heavily to #China again in the last two years, so here is the 3-year average prior to that. Mexico, Japan & South Korea accounted for 58%.

#China's COVID lockdowns have worsened global supply chain woes. One-fifth of the world's container ship fleet is estimated to be stuck in port congestion (not just in China), and the number of ships awaiting berth at Shanghai are up 34% from last month. Here's a look at Shanghai. Zooming in on that one clump of vessels shows they are mostly stationary (at anchor) waiting for their turn. Shipping something from a warehouse in #China to one in the USA now takes 74 days longer than usual.

U.S. #drought conditions this week versus the previous 3 years. Dryness expanded considerably in Nebraska this past week, but other Corn Belt areas are slightly improving. More than half of North Dakota is now drought-free for the first time since Aug. 4, 2020. Here's the same week in the previous four years just for fun. The core Corn Belt states have not often started spring planting in widespread drought conditions. The HRW wheat crop in the S. Plains was heavily affected by drought in 2015 and 2018.

Soils are a bit too cold across Iowa right now for any widespread #corn planting. Soil temps as of Sunday were hovering around 40F, but 50F and above is most preferable to plant corn. Air temps will be chilly most of this week, but warmer weather is forecast this weekend. Here's going back 4 years on the same date:

An important #wheat thread:

The world grew a record wheat crop in 2021/22, but don’t let that deceive you when it comes to actual availability.

You must look at the projected year-end stocks and most critically, the expected demand relative to those stocks, also record high. Global #wheat stocks-to-use in 2021/22 of 28.5% would be a six-year low. Excluding #China, that ratio falls to 16.6%, a 14-year low.

But most of the actual available global supplies lie in the major exporters. Stocks-to-use in those countries of 14% is close to all-time lows.

U.S. quarterly stocks won't be the main event Thursday, but supplies are tighter than usual so they can't be forgotten. Trade estimates would be:
#Corn: +2.4% YOY, -5.7% on 5yr avg
#Soybeans: +22% YOY, -8.5% on 5yr avg
#Wheat: -20% YOY, -30% on 5yr avg, 13yr low for date Don't be fooled by +22% YOY for #soybeans when it comes to Sept. 1 possibilities. 2nd half use in 20/21 was a 6yr low and 18% below the 5yr avg. Exports were extremely light for the period after the big effort in H1, and the remaining 21/22 book is much bigger than usual.

Lot's of discussion yesterday on the surprisingly light U.S. acreage intentions. This is total 2021 acres versus March 2020 intentions (I posted these numbers versus 2020 final yesterday). Most states reported fewer planted acres for 2021 than they did for 2020. But I asked farmers yesterday to give insight on why acres were light and got a BUNCH of good answers (thank you!). Some of those explanations (high cost of inputs, prices of other crops - hay for example, rotations, etc) all make sense. Check out that thread if you haven't.

March 1 #corn stocks come in slightly below expectations while those for #soybeans just a bit above. #Wheat stocks came in higher than the trade guess. Versus what was reported in January, December 1 stocks came in:

#Corn 28 million bushels lighter
#Soybeans 13 mln bu heavier
#Wheat 29 mln bu heavier

No change to Sept. 1 stocks! 🥳

This again.

#China agreeing to make $50 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases in 2020.

The RECORD value for annual U.S. ag product exports to China was in 2012 at just under $26 billion. Compare commodity prices then and now. For reference, 2017 was $19.5 billion. And if you consider Ag & Related Products (includes fish & forestry products) - max was $29 billion in 2013. So this is the absolute max previous ceiling considering all exports that could be considered ag.

I'm not seeing how $50B is possible in 2020.