Ted Darling Profile picture
May 27 11 tweets 2 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

Week to date

$NATGAS +10.05%
$COFFEE +5.0%
$WTIC +3.45%
$GASO +2.8%
$LUMBER +2.35%
$COPPER -0.35%
$WHEAT -2.2%

$EUR +1.6%
$GOLD +0.3%
$USD -1.25%
$BTC -4.1%

$SPX +4.0%
$CAC +2.0%
$SSEC -0.75%
$KOSPI -1.0%

$TLT +0.25%

Let's dig into the🧮!
Asia finished the week on an ↗️🎵

$NIKK 26782 +0.65%
$SSEC 3130 +0.25%
$TWII 15266 +1.85%
$HIS 20683 +2.8%
$KOPSI 2638 +1.0%
$IDX 7026 +2.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7183 +1.1%

India ↗️
$BSE 54865 +1.15%
Europe building on weekly gains ↗️ at the open

$DAX 14332 +0.7%
$FTSE 7573 +0.1%
$CAC 6472 +0.95%
$AEX 697 +0.65%
$IBEX 8909 +0.25%
$MIB 34575 +0.1%
$SMI 11555 +0.55%
$MOEX 2431 +0.75% 🪆

$VSTOXX 25.66🔻
🇺🇸 futures ↗️ as the 🌊 of 🌊 ↘️
$VVIX 96.25 a multi-year low

$ES 4070 +0.3%
$NQ 12338 +0.5%
$RTY 1842 +0.2%

$VIX 27.16 🔻
GOLD and metals trading ↗️

$GOLD 1857 +0.5%
$SILVER 22.28 +1.45%
$COPPER 4.31 +1.1%
$PLAT 943.55 +0.65%
$PALL 2020 +1.35%
$ALI 2894 +1.0%
$ZINC 3812 +2.05%

$GVZ 17.81 🔻
Hydrocarbons firm ↗️

$WTIC 114.42 +0.3%
$BRENT 114,67 +0.45%
$GASO 3.89 +0.3%
$NATGAS 8.814 -0.9%

$OVX 46.03 🔻
Grains ↗️ small

$WHEAT 1145 +0.2%
$CORN 764 +0.05%
$SOYB 1729 +0.15%
$SUGAR 19.57 +0.15%

$COFFEE 225.23 -0.25% ☕️
Continued $USD weakness ↘️

$USD 101.69 -0.16%
$EUR 1.0735 +0.1%
$GBP 1.272 +0.18%
$AUD 0.7144 +0.65%
$USDJPY 127.03 -0.07%
$USDCHF 0.9586 -0.07%
$USDCAD 1.275 -0.2%
$USDRUB 67.267 +3.07% 🪆
#cryptocurrencies with continued weakness ↘️

$BTC 29047 -0.55%
$ETH 1780 -0.95%
UST bond yields ↔️
10/2s to 27 BPS

MOVE 102.49🔻

2Y 2.476
5Y 2.717
10Y 2.76
30Y 2.978

Global 10Ys mostly ↘️
CAN 2.794 +0.02
Volatility 🌊↘️ across asset classes is giving investors some reprieve even as the $CRB +2.% as in #inflation is not abating. #NotQuad4

Good spot to start adding back equity 🩳
Vol 🌊 cheaper, complacency ↗️

Have a super profitable 💰 day and an awesome long weekend!

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More from @tdarling1

May 29
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT Image
1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22 Image
2/9

Big winners on the week, vol 🌊 sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low Image
Read 18 tweets
May 15
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Read 17 tweets
May 13
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +1.15%
$CNY -1.8%
$AUD -3.05%
$GOLD -3.1%
$SILVER -7.15%

$SSEC +1.75%
$DAX +0.5%
$CAC -0.85%
$KOSPI -3.55%
$NIKK -4.65%
$COMPQ -6.35%

$WTIC -3.3%
$COPPER -3.9%
$COFFEE +2.3%
$WHEAT +6.35%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian markets finished on an ↗️ 🎵

$NIKK 26428 +2.65%
$SSEC 3084 +0.95%
$TWII 15832 +1.4%
$HSI 19902 +2.7%
$KOSPI 2604 +2.1%
$IDX 6598 -0.05%

Australia ↗️
7075 +1.95%

India ↗️
$BSE 53664 +1.4%
Europe ↗️ at the open

$DAX 13889 +1.1%
$FTSE 7327 +1.3%
$CAC 6276 +1.1%
$AEX 685 +1.6%
$IBEX 8281
$MIB 23800 +1.0%
$SMI 11590 +0.75%
$MOEX 2293 -0.2% 🪆

$VSTOXX 32.40
Read 11 tweets
May 1
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022

1/11

🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
2/11

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
2a/11

Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Read 22 tweets
Apr 29
Hello Friday and the MONTH to date!

$CAC -2.3%
$KOPSI -3.25%
$SSEC -8.55%
$COMPQ -9.5%

$COPPER -8.7%
$WITC +5.05%
$CORN +8.65%
$COTTON +8.85%
$GASO +10.3%
$NATGAS +22.1%

$USD +5.4%
$GOLD -3.2%
$GBP -5.15%
$JPY -7.0%

$TLT -8.25%

$VIX 29.99 +46%

Let's dig into the 🧮
$NIKK closed for the next 6 trading days, but the rest of Asia ripped ↗️ into month end

$SSEC 3047 +2.4%
$TWII 16592 +1.05%
$HSI 21110 +4.1% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.05%
$IDX 7229 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7435 +1.05%

India ↗️
$BSE 57830 +0.55%
Europe also rallying ↗️ into month end

$DAX 14145 +1.2%
$FTSE 7538 +0.4%
$CAC 6585 +1.2%
$AEX 716 +1.4%
$IBEX 8562 +0.6%
$MIB 24281 +0.95%
$SMI 12159 +0.8%
$MOEX 2431 +1.95% 🪆

$VSTOXX 31.28
Read 11 tweets
Apr 24
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 4/24/2022

1/11

We got a parade of FOMC members this week, starting with Bullard 🐻 and ending with Powell 💩

Their message was clear - no 👊🥣 for you!

The equity market 🤮, $CRB ↘️, $TNX ↗️, and $USD 🚀

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1a/11

Indeed the Federal Reserve balance sheet ↘️ -9.5B this week
2/11

With the pending 💦🍋, the $USD has become more valuable - raising havoc around the 🌏

$USD +0.9% (w) +5.8% (T) = 3 months
$USDCHF 3.0% (w) +4.9% (T)
$USDJPY +1.7% (w) +13.05% (T)
$GBP -1.75% (w) -5.3% (T)
$AUD -2.1% (w) +1.0% (T)

Chart: $USD ripping to new cycle highs
Read 23 tweets

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