This THREAD is for those, who doesn’t know precisely, how myth about “separatism” in #Donbas appeared in 2014. It was invasion of #Russia and occupation with only difference from now – RU troops were without insignia. Here are some numbers on public opinion. #StopRussiaNOW 1/
March 2014. #Russia has already captured administrative buildings in #Luhansk and Donetsk and organized “protests” around them. They already had weapons and first killing of UA activists happened. Meanwhile Ukrainians continued to go out and protest. 2/
In 03/2014 @dem_initiatives made national public opinion poll about possible “separatism”. 89% in Donbas considered UA to be homeland. Both “independence” of #Donbas or its accession to another country were not popular at all. No widespread separatism! dif.org.ua/article/chi-vl… 3/
Particularly: How many #Donbas residents supported in 2014 secession from #Ukraine and having “independent state” –17%. How many supported Donbas joining “another state” –24%. Absolute majority wanted neither separation, nor independence from UA. 4/
#Russia succeeded in creating “image” for foreign audience about separatist “majority” in #Donbas. They captured administ. buildings, they were armed. They kidnapped and tortured pro-UA activists. In May, 2014 it became fully dangerous to protest against armed groups.5/
In 11/2014 we conducted opinion polls in liberated from RU cities – Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. 72% of locals said, that #Donbas had to be part of #Ukraine. So called “L/DPR” were supported by 7%(!) of locals, who lived under occupation for several months.6/ dif.org.ua/en/article/obs…
2015: when asked about self-identification, majority of respondents in Donetsk and Luhansk obl (UA-controlled part), named “citizen of UA” identity (53% and 63%, respectively). Local and regional self-identities altogether lost to nationwide. Polls by @dem_initiatives 7/
Feeling first and foremost citizens of UA was further strengthened in #Donbas. After partial occupation of Donbas in 2014 #Russia has reached the opposite result in UA-controlled part of the region: no Russia, no concessions, only united #Ukraine 8/
Almost no one in the East (#Donbas, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhya and Kharkiv) supported political future for “L/DPR” as independent states (6%) or parts of #Russia (2,5%) in 2021. Since 2014 this secession scenarios had no support on nationwide level as well.9/
Before #RussiaInvadedUkraine, in early Febr. 2022 Russian-speaking Ukrainians considered RU to be the main source of military threat and war for #Ukraine. Like Ukrainian-speaking population did. There are no “two Ukraine’s”, divided by language. This is RU fake 10/
Now UA is more, than ever, united in its attitude to Russia as aggressor. And NO territorial losses are acceptable for Ukrainians. 82% are against this option in exchange for “peace”. In currently occupied areas (68%) are against such @NYT scheme kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=… 12/
Thus, when #Putin crossed out #MinskAccords by recognition of “L/DPR” independence, when he started invasion of UA, even this artificial frontline in #Donbas disappeared! There is no two different parts of Donbas, like there is no two different Ukraine’s #StopRussiaNOW
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🧵#Russia is continuing attack using no sophisticated tactics: just burn everything out using its domination in artillery and air bombardment. Goal is clear: push stronger to prevent some Western states from sending heavy weapons to 🇺🇦 and make them think about negotiations. ⬇️
Now its a turning point for several states: large weapons supply will make UA definitely win. We lack only offensive weapons in needed quantities. Some on the West still have to make final decision: send it and defeat #Russia completely, or not send and use half-measures 2/
The latter mean fear and lack of understanding, what to do with defeated (and collapsing afterwards) #Russia. But half-measures don’t work this time. It’s not 2014. UA military victory now is the only key to predictable regional and Europe-wide security. 3/
Regiment #Azov continues to be absurdly accused of being “neo-nazi/extremists/far-right”. Working with media as an expert I state: journalists in many cases do not dig deep, don’t understand context and use myths about Azov without attempt of fact checking. Here is a 🧵
Where are media often wrong? 1.Biletsky isn’t a leader of Azov. He neither commands it, nor influences commanders. He has no formal relation to regiment, which is part of National Guard of UA. He is leader of party “National corpus”, but commanded Azov only several months in 2014
No, Azov isn’t a military wing of the party “National corpus”. Azov was founded by Biletsky, and he has been benefiting from its image since than. There are personal links btw former and current soldiers of Azov, but that doesn’t mean Azov is guided or commanded from outside.
🧵We should stop weapons supply to #Ukraine, cause the more weapons, the longer war and the more casualties! Risky and manipulative argument, used by loyal to #Russia experts and politicians to stop soppier of UA. Here are several counter arguments to that. 1/
Military counter argument. UA army is efficient in repelling massive offensive. RU had to leave Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and almost all Kharkiv regions. 4 weeks of attacks in Luhansk obl. didn’t bring RU control over main cities, besides of Kreminna. RU occupied there rural areas
Success in repelling RU offensive happened BEFORE massive weapons delivery to UA. Decisions on new massive supplies, including of heavy offensive weapons, started being made on the edge of March-April and continues now.
THREAD with quotations of the story about attempts to leave Mariupol. People have to pass dozens of #Russian check-points and filtration camp. For lot of civilians it is road of death. Link to original story will be at the end of THREAD.
“The camp is not a settlement, it's just a column of cars. There were 500 cars in line in front of us, thousands more behind us. Getting out of cars, looking for food, water, going to the toilet was forbidden. Soldiers with weapons went everywhere, threatened, checked” 2/
“Here's how filter camp works: they have a checkpoint. There comes a car, where they check every pocket, trunk, every bag, clothes and what's under it. Men are undressed outside near cars. Soldiers are looking for tattoos, some labels. Looking for "nationalists"” #StopRussia
THREAD. Day 52d since #RussiaInvadedUkraine. How does situation look on the ground? Below find overview on 1)military situation. 2)developments in temporary occupied areas 3) negotiations 4)what to expect ⬇️1/
1)Military situation. #Russia seriously changed its tactics. After failure of RU land operation in the North (#Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv) RU is concentrating its efforts in fixing its presence in the South, occupation of whole #Donbas and ensuring land corridor btw Russia and Crimea 2/
Donbas is needed for #Russia for 2 reasons. 1)Ideological: to show success before May,9. If #Putin can’t occupy even Donbas (that is not enough for RU), he is complete looser and propaganda won’t explain it. 2)Military: RU wants to weaken the most efficient part of UA army 3/
THREAD on What’s next between #Russia and West? This is crucial Q-n, directly influencing Western reaction of RU aggression. Declaration, that RU is commenting #WarCrimes doesn’t necessarily mean readiness of the West to reshape and rebuild its relations with RF 1/
Scenario 1. West wants to preserve relations as such, continue business with RU while accusing it for aggression and authoritarianism. It means support to “peace deal” btw #Ukraine and #Russia regardless, whether it will bring strategic security either for UA, or for Europe 2/
In this case, RU will be treated as aggressor, but won’t be economically and politically punished to possible maximum. After “peace deal” or in case of protracted conflict, West will return to “rational” co-existence with RU, meaning “business” cooperation. 3/