Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT

1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22

2/9

Big winners on the week, vol 🌊 sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low

3/9

🇺🇸 equity markets 🚀

$SPX +6.6% (w) -5.15% (T)
$COMPQ +6.84% (w) -11.4% (T)
$IWM +6.55% (w) -7.35% (T)

(T) = Trend = 3 mos momo

Chart: $COMPQ is -22.45% YTD and remains 🐻 (T)

3a/9

The badly beaten were among the top sectors on the week

$XLY +9.5% (w) -12.75% (T) 🐻
$XLE +8.25% (w) +28.55% (T) ♉️
$XLF +8.05% (w) -9.05% (T) 🐻
$XLK +7.95% (w) -8.35% (T) 🐻

Chart: $XLB +6.0% (w) flipped to ♉️ (t) +2.75% and (T) +3.6%

4/9

Internat’l indices were ↔️ with $EFA outperforming $EEM

$CAC +3.65% (w) -3.5% (T)
$DAX +3.45% (w) -0.7% (T) 🆕 neutral
$HSI -0.1% (w) -9.1% (T)
$KOSPI -0.05% (w) -1.45% (T)
$NIKK +0.15% (w) +1.15% (T) 🆕♉️
$SSEC -0.5% (w) -9.3% (T)

Chart: $EFA +3.95% (w) and ♉️ (t) +2.6%

4a/9

Top country ETFs
$EWP +6.3% (w) +1.5% (T) 🆕♉️
$EWZ +6.25% (w) +8.05% (T)
$EWN +5.74% (w) -10.15% (T)
EWQ +5.7% (w) -5.75% (T)

Chart: $EWP 🇪🇸 ♉️ (t) +8.0% + (T) +1.15%

5/9

Do you honestly think the #FOMC is going to let up before #inflation ↘️

Chart: $CRB +2.5% and a new cycle high

5a/9

$INFL invests in equity securities of companies that are expected to benefitfrom rising prices of real assets

Chart: $INFL +5.6% (w) -3.7% (T) 🆕♉️

5b/9

Hydrocarbons ↗️ remain the primary drivers of #inflation

$BRENT +1.4% (w) +16.9% (T)
$WTIC +4.35% (w) +25.6% (T)
$GASO +5.95% (w) +36.25% (T)
$NATGAS +8.05% (w) +95.3% (T) 😱

Chart: $GASO says happy 🇺🇸 Day weekend +76.1% YTD

5c/9

Grains ↔️ on the week, but remain ♉️

$CORN -0.2% (w) +18.55% (T)
$SOYB +1.6% (w) +39.3% (T)
$SUGAR -1.5% (w) +8.95% (T)
$WHEAT 0.95% (w) +34.625% (T)

Chart: $DBA +0.8% (w) +1.6% (t) +8.35% (T)

5d/9

$COFFEE +5.09% (w) put in a shift and is now neutral (t) +2.25% but remains 🐻 (T) -5.0%

6/9

Metals ↗️ for the week, but remain 🐻 (T)

$COPPER +0.7% (w) -4.0% (T)
$GOLD +0.85% (w) -1.6% (T)
$PLAT +0.2% (w) -10.2% (T)
$SILVER +2.0% (w) -8.0% (T)

Chart: $SILVER back to the failure area 🩳

7/9

The UST yield curve steepened in response to the equity ebullience with 10/2s to 25.9 BPS +5.8 BPS as the 2Y ↘️ more than the 10Y

Chart: 10/2s curve has steepened 26 BPS off the Fool’s Day inversion

7a/9

Volatility 🌊 continued to come out of the bond market

Chart: MOVE 98.48 -11.35% (w) +5.5% (T)

7b/9

Decimated in this bond 🐻, high yield and corporates 🚀

$HYG +4.9% (w) -4.1% (T)
$CWB +3.4% (w) -9.2% (T)
$LQD +2.55% (w) -6.65% (T)
$TIP +1.1% (w) -4.1% (T)
$TLT +0.5% (w) -13.0% (T)

Chart: $LQD flipped to ♉️ (t) +2.4% but remains 🐻(T)

8/9

In #FX, the $USD weakened ↘️ for a 2nd week

$USD -1.4% (w) +5.25% (T)
$GBP +1.1% (w) -5.8% (T)
$AUD +1.55% (w) -0.95% (T)
$EUR +1.6% (w) -4.8% (T)

Chart: $USD is now 🐻 (t) -1.2% but remains ♉️ (T)

9/9

So, what’s it going to be?

You gonna jump on the counter-trend moves and fight 🖕 the Fed?

Or, will you #BTFD in ♉️ Trends and #STFR in 🐻 Trends?

You know what to do!

Have a great 🇺🇸👩🏽‍🏭Day and a super profitable 💰 week!