Karen Braun Profile picture
May 31 7 tweets 4 min read
North Dakota is planting #corn & #soybeans at a record slow pace, corn by a comfortable margin. Only 56% of ND's corn was planted by May 29, and May 25 was the last day for most ND farmers to plant 🌽 and be fully eligible for elected crop insurance. ND grows 3% of U.S. corn. Image
North Dakota grows 5% of U.S. #soybeans, a large portion of which get exported to China. Only 23% of ND's beans were planted by May 29 vs 86% last year. Final crop insurance planting date is June 10, but to complete planting, ND cannot have any more rainy episodes from here. Image
North Dakota's spring #wheat planting is no longer slowest ever (but it's close) at 59% complete by May 29. Final planting date is either May 31 or June 5, but 91% of ND's wheat should be planted by now. ND grows half of the country's protein-rich spring wheat. Image
Some feedback from the North Dakota #CropWatch22 producer on prevent plant (PP; govt payments you can get when you can't plant a crop): he has never seen PP payments pencil out to a profit. It is still expensive (rent, weed control, other debts, etc). PP is not preferable.
I have seen some chatter about PP payments being profitable this year, or the "govt paying farmers to not plant crops." At least for the Crop Watch producer, PP is truly a last resort and is not attractive at all. Maybe someone else has a different experience, likely not tho.
These dates exist because it is risky to plant past a certain date. Chance of losses increase significantly as it gets later and later. Farmers will plant past these dates, but not too far past because again, they know the risks of doing so.
The precipitation % of normal map shown here explains why North Dakota & northern Minnesota have had so much trouble planting this spring. Equipment cannot enter fields when it's so wet, and planting crops in very wet soils doesn't work out well.
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More from @kannbwx

May 31
U.S. spring #wheat planting was near record slow as of Sunday at 73% complete, as wet weather has delayed top growers North Dakota & Minnesota. Spring wheat accounts for 32% of the full U.S. wheat crop, and last year's spring harvest was the smallest since 1988 due to drought. Image
North Dakota grows about half of the U.S. spring #wheat, but Minnesota, accounting for 14% of production, is planting at the slowest pace ever. Almost no wheat got planted in the state until last week. Still, it is uncertain just how many of MN's intended acres will get planted. Image
Only 29% of U.S. winter #wheat was in good/excellent health as of Sunday, the lowest for the week since 2006. Other years with similarly low ratings had terrible yields. However, the winter wheat problems have been known for some time now. Wasn't much room for spring crop errors.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
USDA will allow U.S. farmers to plant on acres currently parts of the federal conservation program with no penalty in order to ease global food supply worries. The offer is open to farmers in the final year of their contract with USDA's CRP program.
I've discussed this before on here. Given that June is in less than a week, I believe farmers would have needed significantly more notice in order to make anything happen this year. Don't forget, planting crops is incredibly expensive this year.
Just one year ago (when grain prices were already at multi-year spring highs), USDA was attempting to add more acres to CRP in both the short and long term for climate mitigation purposes. That announcement is here:
fsa.usda.gov/news-room/news…
Read 4 tweets
May 24
May 24: Most-active CBOT #corn futures settled below the 50-day moving average for the first time since Oct. 21, 2021. The settle of $7.71-3/4 per bushel is 6.4% off the April 29 high of $8.24-1/2. 100-day avg as of Tuesday is about $7.14. Image
A longer term picture. Closing below the 50-day avg is generally a negative technical sign, but it isn't guaranteed. Corn settled below the 50-day on March 30, 2021 for the 1st time since Aug. 12, 2020, then didn't do it again til June. Though now, corn is near historic highs. Image
U.S. planting progress and China/Brazil trade prospects weighed down the corn market Tuesday. U.S. corn planting is still historically slow, but not 2019, no-end-in-sight slow. China cleared Brazilian corn for import, causing concerns for US competitiveness into China.
Read 4 tweets
May 24
USDA's attache in #Ukraine has just published its first report since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. Topic is role of Ukrainian households in agricultural production, now extra important for food security given the war. Households occupy 30% of ag land. Potatoes are a top crop. Image
We missed Grain & Feed/Oilseeds annual reports, incl. 2022/23 projections. USDA hasn't necessarily said its Kyiv attache is not operating, but info remains thin. Report says #Ukraine's State Statistics Service has officially stopped publishing all new data until the war is over.
So really, question is: is USDA's info stream out of Ukraine sufficient? Reliable? I asked that Q at the USDA Data Users' meeting in April and got a kinda evasive answer. But lack of reports instills at least some doubt, some question. Here's the report: apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api…
Read 4 tweets
May 24
#China has signed an agreement with #Brazil to allow imports of 🇧🇷 #corn, previously subject to phytosanitary restrictions.

These are Brazil's top customers. Iran, Egypt & Spain in particular overlap with Ukraine, China's usual go-to supplier. Japan and S Korea overlap w/ USA. Image
Those original 7 countries I showed account for 2/3 of #Brazil's annual #corn shipments. Taiwan also overlaps with USA, as does Mexico when adding some secondary Brazilian buyers.

Will be lots of secondary overlaps because countries that don't grow corn NEED corn! 🌽 Image
Here's a reminder of where USA, #Ukraine & #Argentina export #corn for comparison. Two USA charts: 1 shows recent buyers and then another shows buyers' shares pre-#China (China started buying US big in 2020). Argy chart is from USDA/FAS.

USA+BR+AR+UA = 85% of world corn exports ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
May 23
U.S. spring #wheat planting is advancing at the slowest pace in more than 20 years and was only 49% complete as of Sunday. Average for the date is 83%. Minnesota is only 11% planted vs 90% avg. North Dakota 27% vs 80% avg. Those two states grow two-thirds of the U.S. crop.
Just a reminder, this has to do with extremely wet spring weather in much of the Northern Plains. That area faced a bad drought last year, but too much rain in April and some rains/cool weather since then has kept farmers and their heavy equipment out of fields.
Update: U.S. spring #wheat planting progress at 49% complete as of May 22 is the SLOWEST in records back to 1981. Next slowest for the date is 1995, but 2011 is the slowest from late May forward.
Read 5 tweets

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