CRFB.org Profile picture
Jun 3 7 tweets 6 min read
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The latest #SocialSecurity projections show that the program is only 13 years from insolvency and faces large & rising imbalances. Though finances have improved slightly, they remain perilous, and time is running out to save the program.

crfb.org/papers/analysi….
1️⃣ #SocialSecurity is only 𝟭𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The theoretical combined trust funds comprising #SocialSecurity (OASI+SSDI) will exhaust their reserves by 2035, when today's 54-year-olds reach full retirement age and today's youngest retirees turn 75. ⤵️
2️⃣ #SocialSecurity faces large and rising imbalances.

The Trustees project the program will run cash deficits of nearly $2.5 trillion over the next decade – the equivalent of 2.1% taxable payroll or 0.8% of GDP. 75-year actuarial imbalance totals 3.4% of payroll or 1.2% of GDP.
3️⃣ #SocialSecurity's finances remain perilous.

Though finances are slightly better than projected in 2021, the program's 75-year shortfall is the second largest it has been since before reforms in 1983, and the economic assumptions appear outdated relative to current #inflation.
4️⃣ Delaying fixes to #SocialSecurity is costly.

With only a few years left to restore solvency to the program, policymakers should act sooner rather than later to allow more policy options, phase in changes gradually, and provide time for work and savings adjustments.
➡️Without reforms, #SocialSecurity will not to be able to pay full benefits to many 𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 beneficiaries, let alone today’s workers and future generations. Action must be taken soon to avoid a 20% across-the-board cut to all beneficiaries in just 13 years. ⤵️
➡️...Fortunately, many options exist to fix #SocialSecurity's finances and could be enacted+implemented with political will.

Find our full report along with potential #TrustFundSolutions at crfb.org/papers/analysi….

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More from @BudgetHawks

Jun 3
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 The #Medicare Trustees' report shows that the Part A HI trust fund is only 6 years from insolvency, facing a large shortfall with rapidly-growing spending. The outlook is slightly improved, but substantial structural imbalances remain.

crfb.org/papers/analysi….
1️⃣ The HI trust fund is only 𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 from insolvency.

The Trustees project the trust fund will be insolvent by 2028, just six years from now but two years later than projected last year. At that point, provider + insurer payments would have to be cut by 10% (20% by 2046).
2️⃣ Total #Medicare spending will grow significantly.

All parts of Medicare will grow rapidly in the coming decade. Gross Medicare spending will ⬆️ from 3.9% of GDP in 2022 to 5.4% in 2032 and 6.2% in 2045. This rise is driven partially by the rising cost of #MedicareAdvantage.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
🚨NEW🚨 Today's trustees reports show that the #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) #trustfunds are rapidly approaching insolvency; these funding imbalances will require #TrustFundSolutions to prevent broad benefit cuts.

More: crfb.org/blogs/trustees…. ImageImage
➡️OASI depletion will occur by 2034, while SSDI will not deplete within the projection window.

On a theoretical combined basis, assuming revenue is allocated between the trust funds in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, #SocialSecurity will become insolvent by 2035. ⤵️ Image
➡️Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries will face a 20% across-the-board benefit cut, which will grow to 26% by 2096. The Trustees estimate a 75-year actuarial shortfall of 3.42% of taxable payroll for #SocialSecurity – lower than 2021's estimate, but higher than any prior year.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
🚨The #SocialSecurity and #Medicare Trustees released their annual reports on the state of the trust funds today, finding that #Medicare HI will be insolvent by 2028 and theoretically combined #SocialSecurity by 2035.

The following is a statement from @MayaMacGuineas:
"#SocialSecurity is only 13 years from insolvency and #Medicare is only 6 years. Policymakers need to get their heads out of the sand and stop pretending these vital programs’ funding issues will fix themselves." crfb.org/press-releases….
"Today’s youngest retirees will be 68 years old when #Medicare runs out of reserves and 75 years old when #SocialSecurity becomes insolvent. Workers under the age of 55 will retire into an insolvent system."
Read 10 tweets
May 31
🚨NEW🚨 Under alternative, fiscally-irresponsible scenarios based on @USCBO's baseline – including likely policy extensions and more deficit-financed actions – #deficits could surpass $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 and #debt could reach 𝟭𝟮𝟱% of GDP by 2032.

➡️crfb.org/blogs/debt-cou…. ImageImageImageImage
➡️Last week, @USCBO projected that debt will reach a record 110% of GDP and deficits will reach $2.3 trillion by 2032.⤵️

But the baseline is based on current law, and ignores future legislation, administrative actions and temporary policy extensions.
➡️We've mapped debt, deficits & interest payments based on two alternative, more realistic scenarios:
➤With extensions of temporary policies & with spending growing faster than inflation;
➤With the above extensions, plus other debt-financed legislative & administrative actions. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3, 2021
Although the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill under consideration addresses some key needs, some pieces could be better targeted. A redesigned plan could still provide the support necessary to fight the virus and support a strong economic recovery.
The House #COVIDrelief package includes about $312B of policies developed long before the #COVID crisis, not in response to it. Many of these policies are worthwhile but should be paid for and made permanent parts of the tax code or budget.
Policymakers could offset these policies by raising the top individual income tax rate for high earners back to 39.6% or increasing the corporate income tax rate.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21, 2019
NEW: The CBO update shows that the recent budget deal made a bad situation worse. From our statement: "The recent budget deal was a budget buster, and now we have further proof. Both parties took an already unsustainable situation and made it much worse." crfb.org/press-releases…
"Debt is now going to grow to almost the size of the economy within the decade. If Congress keeps extending tax cuts, debt will likely exceed the size of the economy within the decade."
"Between the budget deal, the tax cuts, and other recent unpaid-for legislation, policymakers have roughly doubled near-term deficits over just the past few years."
Read 7 tweets

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