1/ The truth is probably not as clear cut as the MSM media would suggest. Just one poll, and an outlier at that. But it suggests that it is entirely *possible* for #Johnson to win the next election. #Labour is not where it needs to be...
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1533845696176177153
2/ By elections are strange beasts. It's important that oppositions win them to show that they are successfully eating in to the support of the Governing Party. But oppositions who win by-elections don't necessarily go on to win General elections...
3/ This is because they tend to be used as protests against the Government, as do local elections. MSM journos are picking & choosing their political precedents. It's true that the vote of confidence means that #Johnson is less likely to lead the Tories into the next election...
4/ But - and it feels odd saying this - @DominicRaab - is also correct to say by election losses aren't that important for judging the likely outcome of the next GE. Ed Miliband's Labour consistently won by elections and went on to lose the 2015 GE, for example. #Johnson
5/ If #Labour fails to win in Wakefield, it is a worse sign for #Labour than it is for the Tories if they lose it. Also worth noting that #Johnson is unpopular but is he less appealing than the available alternatives?...
6/ If he were smart, he'd use the establishment campaign against him to generate (entirely false) "anti establishment" credentials and announce a raft of policies that actually benefit real people to boost his support.
7/7 Finally what happens if #Starmer is fined over #Beergate? It wouldn't be the 1st time #Starmer has rescued #Johnson from seemingly inevitable demise: e.g. the impact of Christian Wakeford's defection. #Johnson may be a calamity but #Starmer's political instincts are awful.
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