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Jun 13 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Russian forces should, in principle, be seeking to seize the bridges between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk rather than destroy them, since Russian troops have struggled to cross the Siverskyi Donetsk River. (1/3) isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Russian forces could hope to trap Ukrainian defenders in Severodonetsk by cutting off their retreat, but it seems unlikely that the benefit of catching a relatively small number of defenders would be worth the cost of imposing a contested river crossing on Russian troops. (2/3)
They likely expect instead to break out of their positions either around Toshkivka or from Popasna to the north and then encircle/attack Lysychansk from the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets, thereby obviating the need to seize the bridges or conduct an opposed crossing. (3/3)

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jun 12
#Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. Pro-Russian sources are continuing to spread disinformation to sow anxiety and resentment among the #Ukrainian population.

Read today's report: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the last few weeks.
The UK MoD further noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two BTGs; however, doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells, as these third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 6
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats, followed by a brief thread on recent changes. (1/4)
We recessed Ukrainian counteroffensives in Severodonetsk that we coded on 6/5 and advanced assessed Russian advance to the city's industrial area near the Azot chemical plant given Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai stated on 6/6 that the situation has "deteriorated." (2/4)
Haidai’s June 6 statement marked a significant change in Haidai’s characterization of the situation in Severodonetsk from June 5, in which he stated that Ukrainian counterattacks recaptured half of the city. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 31
New: Moscow’s focus on seizing #Severodonetsk (and Donbas) is creating vulnerabilities for Russia in Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
Sound Ukrainian prioritization of counter-offensive and defensive operations pushed the Russians almost out of artillery range of #Kharkiv City and have stopped the Russian advances from #Izyum—both of which are more important accomplishments than the defense of #Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from #Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 25
#Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of #Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements—enabling them to make incremental gains.

Read the full report: isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
RU forces are likely attempting several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of UKR forces in Donetsk & Luhansk Oblasts: the broader Severodonetsk area (incl. Rubizhne & Lysychansk), Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote (NE of Popasna), and UKR fortifications in Avdiivka.
Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 19
Russia does not need another resort town on the Black Sea. What it does need is the kind of hard currency that a plant like #Azovstal had generated. A brief thread on Russia's Pyrrhic victory in #Mariupol from today's report with @criticalthreats: understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Russian occupation authorities today announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a "resort city," depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.
This announcement directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant and epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 18
Note: The Kremlin may have agreed to a conditional surrender of the Azovstal defenders to hasten its ability to declare full control of #Mariupol. It may also be seeking to deflect criticism of the failed Siverskyi Donets River crossings and the overall slow pace of the invasion.
The Kremlin might refuse to exchange the Mariupol defenders. Some Russian State Duma members are petitioning for laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges for individuals accused of “Nazism." The Kremlin may ignore these concerns or use them to sabotage negotiations w/ Ukraine.
In any case, the surrender agreement generated some outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social media, rather than the celebration of the full capitulation of Mariupol that the Kremlin likely expected - possibly undermining Russian information operations.
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Read 5 tweets

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