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Jun 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Since nightfall, we have seen signs of a #Russian counteroffensive in the #Kherson region where previously, RU forces had been content to resist #Ukraine's much touted offensive in the region that has yet to achieve any significant advance. RU forces may be going to the the coast
and the Halytsynove area (where they had been earlier in the war), in order to cut off UA forces fighting to take Oleksandrivka and #Stanislav. Indeed, around the same time we see the latter was shelled. It is also possible that RU forces are simply advancing north along the bank
headlong into the UA offensive, but more likely that they are attacking from the east, towards the Ukrainian flank as they attack south towards Stanislav. We shall see what if anything results from these actions, which seem like an escalation in scale from what we have seen in
this part of the Kherson front in a while. Fighting also continues along the rest of the Kherson line in 3 main sectors.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 15
We may have our answer, not 18 hours after the post, we had the first unconfirmed reports of the #Russian capture of #Vrubivka. VIIRS data lends supporting evidence to this as it has been 54+ hours since the last hotspot data from Vrubivka on the 12th (captured in previous post). Image
There was heavy shelling on the 11th (preparation), less so on the 12th (in support of advance) & none (that we can see) thereafter. This pattern coincides with a RU assault on the town. At the same time, strikes continued north of Vrubivka around Loskutivka & Novoivanivka
towards where we would expect a additional advances to seal the #Zolote - #Hirsk cauldron, itself part of the larger & rapidly enveloping Severedonetsk - Lysychansk salient. If true, the town's capture seals the fate of the entire salient, by first sealing the fate of the smaller
Read 15 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 10
An update on this operation. The #Russian crossing was indeed successful. While fighting continued in the area until the 8th, #Sviatohirsk is fully in RU control. #Tetianivka across the river was captured, as well as #Pryshyb & its high grounds. Fighting in Bohordychne continues
& it has held already longer than I first expected. However the RU forces retain fire control over the bridge & large parts of the town & should fully control it in the near future. As of our last known data, the bridge remained standing, though RU forces already have alternative
crossings in the area. Reports indicate RU forces are already advancing towards #Sydorove which is a key town to hold as we discussed earlier. However, the more interesting question is the RU direction after that or even before that. Strong UA forces still hold the front at
Read 9 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 10
Related to this front around #Balakliia, and the #Izium supply hub, which I spoke about in the quoted thread, I wish to speculate about another possible future development. The forests west of Izium are scenes of some of the fiercest & least reported aspects of the war recently.
As I have mentioned, UA forces' ability to operate in dense wooded areas has steadily increased. It is clear to everyone that the Izium supply hub, road & rail junctions, and river/forest passageway to the south are critical to the RU offensive. While RU forces achieved an
important & impressive victory in its capture, which UA forces fought desperately to prevent, the breakthrough remained narrow for a long time. Only recently has Russia widened it towards the east (less dense territory) & connected it by rail to the Kupiansk line as discussed.
Read 11 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 10
Massive forest fire has broken out south of #Andriivka (Kharkhov oblast), due to #Russian shelling. This intensity of fire ensures that in this sector, UA forces have been forced south of the Siverskyi donets river. This is an important part of the front, as RU forces have tried
to push #Ukrainian forces south of the river and away from the main R78 highway and more importantly the railway (#Izium - #Kharkhov). UA forces have learned to very stubbornly & effectively cling to forested areas. In fact most of the active front today is along the forest belt
between Kharkhov and Lugansk. UA forces do not do well in open terrain, nor do they wield field units that can maneuver in them, but they do defend doggedly in urban centers, prepared entrenchments, and dense forest. The combination of the long river and dense forest on its banks
Read 13 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 8
Updated satellite imagery indeed shows that the bridge at #Bohorodychne remains intact (as of yesterday June 7th), as we supposed. #Russian forces have indeed crossed here and are fighting for the town south of the Siverskyi donets river. There is also potentially a new crossing ImageImageImageImage
set up west of the bridge, but it is unclear as it may be cloud or smoke disruption. We cannot make out the bridge at #Svyatogorsk near the Cave Monastery due to cloud cover though RU drone footage shown here indicates that it has been partially destroyed by retreating UA forces.
The monastery seems to be largely intact as we can see, thanks in part to an agreement between the combatants, potentially including the mayor of the city who is already being accused (typically) by #Kiev as a traitor. We can see that as of yesterday the town was still under fire ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 7
In the wake of highly exaggerated reports from #Ukrainian officials about an offensive towards #Melitopol, we have signs of significant fires in the area. This could be sabotage (things are getting dry and easy to light) and/or something related to UA's Yevgeny Balitsky claim Image
that more than 50 Tochka-U missiles (which would be a very large attack) were fired at the city. This may spark some speculation that the Ukrainian offensive did in fact take place (and is succeeding). I believe this could be sabotage, strikes of some sort, or coincidental fires Image
and likely related to the announcement yesterday of a Russian referendum to be held in #Melitopol, but I see no signs of a breakthrough of Ukrainian formations at this point. Independently, the claim of shooting 50 Tochka-U missiles at one time is also quite unlikely.
Read 4 tweets

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