Thread by @ZimermanErik

We may have our answer, not 18 hours after the post, we had the first unconfirmed reports of the #Russian capture of #Vrubivka. VIIRS data lends supporting evidence to this as it has been 54+ hours since the last hotspot data from Vrubivka on the 12th (captured in previous post).

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1536556544883625984

There was heavy shelling on the 11th (preparation), less so on the 12th (in support of advance) & none (that we can see) thereafter. This pattern coincides with a RU assault on the town. At the same time, strikes continued north of Vrubivka around Loskutivka & Novoivanivka

towards where we would expect a additional advances to seal the #Zolote - #Hirsk cauldron, itself part of the larger & rapidly enveloping Severedonetsk - Lysychansk salient. If true, the town's capture seals the fate of the entire salient, by first sealing the fate of the smaller

Zolote cauldron. Taking a look at the whole salient first, note that that the only main roads feeding the Hirske - Zolote front area are through Vrubivka (a secondary road as it is) & the P66 main highway from Lysychansk. However the latter is effectively cut & under fire control

because most of Toshkivka is actually under RU control (cleared by Chechen forces), Only the densely built Tsuprik quarter of the city in the northwest is still in UA hands. Strikes here in the last 6 hours as RU forces continue to push west. The front here is about 1.7 km from

the main (P66 or R-66) road. Additionally RU forces are pressing on Myrna Dolyna further north, & also have fire control over the road here. This is it as far as main roads for the southern sector of the salient. For the encirclement of the entire salient (refer to second image)

RU forces must take either of the main junctions (green circles) at Siversk or around Zolotarivka - Verkhnokamyanka. This is due to the fact that the T1302 is already severed with LN forces entrenched at #Berestove. These may be attacked from north of the Soverskyi river (from

crossings around Dronivka and/or Zakitne, supplied from Yampil), and/or from the south by continuing the push from the Popasna forces, now having taken Vrubivka. Indeed we saw recent serious preparation to advance northwards on the main road around Sprine.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1536563798605168641

This could entail forces from Vrubivka advancing NW through Mykolaivka towards the highway, to then head north towards Verkhnokamyanka, &/or forces from Berestove advancing north. However, RU forces at Vrubivka may be more interested in first completely encircling the southern

sector of the salient, including the possible country backroads that still offer limited supply and retreat opportunities. These small roads (& railway) go through Loskutivka (bombed earlier as we saw) and Pidlisne. Advancing along here would allow the link up with forces pushing

west from Toshkiva & towards Myrna Dolyna, which cuold be attacked from both flanks. It would also allow RU forces to continue to advance along the railway & link its circuit for supplies. The elimination of the southern sector, even as an active (supplied) threat, would free up

forces to work on the rest of the salient. Such an advance will likely entail attacking NE towards the Novoivankivka high ground as well, which dominate the road, and to broaden the front. This may open up the western flank of Hirske to attack as well. Finally, clearing Zolote

would make Popasna fully rail supplied. As it stands, the railway is threatened from Zolote UA positions and may not be working at full capacity if any. A smaller connection goes to Pervomaisk, which is not connected to the main railway that goes through Holubivka, requiring that

the gap be covered by trucking. The rail connection from Popasna in the other direction, SE is also nearing Russian capture, and will be the subject of another post. We shall see if in fact the town fell, which we first indicated as the key to the salient, quite a while ago.

#Ukraine chose to reinforce this salient and fight hard for it, rather than retreat tactically from it to save its forces, who, unless drastic changes occur, will soon face total encirclement.