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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 18

1/6 🇷🇺 reparations to 🇺🇦 are crucial to do justice and rebuild our country after the enormous destruction caused by 🇷🇺 invasion. And although this issue is being actively raised now, still there is no clear roadmap for making this happen. And it’s a problem.

2/6 UK thinktank Ceasefire says neither UN nor international courts would be good for this. UN decisions will be vetoed by 🇷🇺 itself and international courts can’t award reparations soon enough and with the required scope and scale. Changes in legislation would also be needed.

3/6 When it comes to the steps that countries are able to do individually, they can use frozen 🇷🇺 assets (e. g., oligarch’s yachts) and frozen 🇷🇺 central bank reserves held in G7 territories to pay directly to 🇺🇦. Both options create legal concerns in Europe.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 17

1/4 In order to ease the dependency on Russian fuels, EU has signed an agreement with Israel and Egypt to increase the gas shipment from the Mediterranean region.

2/4 These 2 countries together with Cyprus have about 2 trillion CBM of gas in their fields. And a similar amount will be probably found soon. To compare - last year, the EU bought 155 billion CBM from Russia.

3/4 However, this deal concerns quite small amounts, expert says. “The significant increase in gas shipments from this region to Europe would require major long-term infrastructure investments”. And the EU might choose to concentrate on the renewable energy.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 16

1/4 Latvia reports more than 400 attempts to break the sanctions against #russia and #belarus. Most perpetrators are forging their documentation for their cargo to appear legal, as there are some categories of goods to which the sanctions don’t apply.

2/4 EU claims that control is centered around product codes, but the first list of sanctions contained only product descriptions, not codes. Together with Ministry of Foreign Affairs #Latvia, we have compiled a list of permissible and prohibited codes to optimize the process

3/4 The chain of culprits is very long - the customer, supplier, carrier, loader. There are always going to be people playing the russian roulette and trying to cash in on illegal activity. Thanks to brilliant work of Latvian partners, however, all their efforts will fall flat!

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 14

1/4 With European countries decreasing their oil purchases from russia and an approaching embargo on them, russia is looking for new ways to sell and deliver oil. Deliveries by sea and sales to non-EU countries (that did not impose sanctions) seem to be the obvious solution.

2/4 Since the invasion, russia has been actively using "traditional" methods used by smugglers at sea to carry its oil to destination. They switch off vessels' ID systems, trade cargo at sea (unlogged) and transfer ships' jurisdiction to other countries.

3/4 However, this will not make up for the amounts of oil that are about to come to the market. So russia is forced to sell them at a discount, and some countries are happy to restock - India is one of them. China is expected to join as well once it loosens lockdowns.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 11

@TimothyDSnyder

Some thoughts by @TimothyDSnyder I fully agree with:
1/4 "It is certainly in our interests for 🇺🇦 to win the war as soon as possible. Any other outcome would weaken our democracies and encourage aggression, the use of nuclear weapons..A 🇷🇺 victory would be a security nightmare"

2/4 "Diplomacy... will be appropriate later, to discuss an agreement, borders, possible concessions… but only when Ukraine has won the war. This confusion of thinking that diplomacy can substitute for victory worries me. Victory cannot be achieved through diplomacy."

3/4 "This is the goal of this war: to destroy the Ukrainian nation. Affecting the Ukrainian economy, just like deporting women and children, killing men, burning libraries and archives… is part of the same project: eliminating the Ukrainian nation".

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 10

1/3 India has tried to pay russia in rubles instead of dollars to buy Belarus fertilizer. The payment didn't go through. This is not good news for the two countries - they planned to use rupee-ruble exchange mechanism and avoid sanctions imposed on russia by Western countries.

2/3 Only a negligible amount of rupees actually converted to rubles of the Rs 1.77 billion ($23 million) paid. Sberbank has failed to provide any timely explanations. There are opinions that it happened due to the sanctions imposed on russian banks.

3/3 It is thought that the mechanism of rupee-ruble exchange that was actively discussed by India and russia prior to russian invasion in Ukraine, will now be put on hold until the end of the war as a precaution measure for India.
#UkraineRussiaWar

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