Thread by @ZimermanErik

An update on this rapidly disappearing salient. Though reporting even from good sources was mostly silent on this, #Russian forces agreed with the importance of this salient, and are eliminating it as we expected. In the first major instance in the war #Ukrainian forces retreated

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1529076607650078720

rather than become encircled, with Russian forces behind them on the main road (M03), ahead in the main front, and closed in by the Vuhlehirske Reservoir on their west. The small cities of Svitlodarsk, Luganske & Myronivkyi quickly fell to RU forces.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1529076604672040965

The highly fortified & entrenched front line that had held for years was gone, but the UA forces were saved. Though the power plant was reported seized (after UA forces tried to blow the dam and flood the area, thankfully unsuccessfully (for the citizens of the area) by RU, it

remains contested. Ukrainian forces have maintained strong positions on the west bank of the reservoir, specifically at Novoluhanske. Images before the war show some of the entrenchments in the area. As RU forces took Dolomitne, which is smaller & can be outflanked more easily

than Novoluhanske at the reservoir, there is a chance for a small but significant encirclement of UA forces by RU ones, within this fading salient. The capture of Dolomitne plus the advance of PMC Wagner forces across the M03, finally cutting it completely, & seizure of #Vershyna

set up the encirclement. An advance north from Dolomitne and/or south from Veryshna to either Kodema or Semyhirja would cut off the UA troops. Due to the supply roads in the area, it does not seem feasible for UA forces to stop this small advance over open ground. Thus, we shall

see if UA continues the emerging trend of evacuating forces when about to be surrounded or reverts back to its usual tactic of not ever doing so. Once this small road is captured, the advance west to cut off the T0513 highway is straightforward enough. This is a major blow to the

entire northern Horlivka front, and a turn of events much like we expected, after the fall of Troitske as we discussed back on May 20. A final overlooked aspect of this cauldron and its implications involved the railway and Popasna.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1527480429019799552

As much as Popasna has been critical for the breakthrough for RU forces around the Severodonetsk - Lysychansk salient, as we have discussed often, and while it removed a rail-supplied fortress city from the UA front, it has not yet provided the same asset to Russia.

The winding railway goes through Zolote east of Popasna, and is not yet secure nor out of artillery range. A smaller lines goes to (but not through) Pervomaisk, who itself is fed by another line. This still remains the battles of the Popasna front, now in Vrubivka and Berestove

20 km from Popasna and 33 km from a main railhead. The capture of this southern salient (from Popasna) secures the double-track railway line from Popasna to the major city of Horlivka. Because that line continues north from Popasna to Vrubivka, the supply lines are shortened very

significantly and can allow Russian forces to project the necessary power to finish closing the large Lysychansk cauldron, even without the need of seizing Siversk from the north and west by the forces across the river. This line continues to Siversk & so has many implications

future operations including the upcoming battle for the Slovyansk line. Of course, seizing of the M-03 and the T-0513 are also part of the capture of main arteries leading in and out of Bakhmut. Overall, very significant operations happening in this area, which UA forces do not

seem positioned to prevent. We will see if all this finally forces them to a retreat to the Slovyansk - Kramatorsk line which is much more defensible and much more difficult to encircle or UA will continue to try to reinforce cauldrons. Hopefully will get to an update on the

possible reasons for this shortly. As we are reaching a turning point in the war more visible even to mainstream media, would like to also have a chance to discuss the broader situation.