Thread by @alemannoEU

The outcome of the French parliamentary elections is highly consequential for both France’s and Europe’s future. Here’s why 🧵

SPOILER: Macron will eventually have to pick either the left or the right!

#electionslegislatives2022 #France #ElectionsLegislatives

1. Macron’s presidential coalition (Ensemble!) came out on top and remains the largest parliamentary force in parliament, BUT lost its absolute majority

2. This leaves us with unprecedented degree of fragmentation and division in the National Assembly, with both the left wing coalition and the far right largely over-performing and squeezing the centre.

Parliamentary power is back! #Elections2022

3. Macron political power as we know is set to change, but
its sense of direction – towards the right or the left – will depend on the government coalition he will be forced to form.

This is no usual exercise in France 🇫🇷

4. Two options open to Macron:

First, to form a coalition : the most natural ally is the French conservative party, but also the left-wing coalition, being already split in different political groups, may become an interlocutor

5. Second, Macron might contemplate dissolving the new national assembly and call for an early election.

This might backfire but it’s the kind of gambles Macron likes

6. Marine Le Pen’s party is now the largest opposition party in parliament, thus becoming part of the political mainstream as demonstrated by fall of French front republican

7. Marine Le Pen already claims the presidency of the Finance Commission, which, as of 2009, has to be assigned to an opposition MP. Expect for more requests to come…

8. 🇪🇺 While Macron remain formally in charge of foreign and EU policy, his EU stance will have to reflect that approx 50% of MPs are eurosceptics (or at least not aligned to his vision)

No treaty revision seems plausible ahead of #EUCO

#electionslegislatives2022 #cofeu

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