1. @ELuttwak correctly warns that #Putin cannot give up the #Donetsk and #Luhansk regions, as he would loose face, and that he will therefore fight for them to the end. 1/4
unherd.com/2022/04/how-th…
unherd.com/2022/04/how-th…
2. But #Luttwark also thinks that #Putin would be ready to allow, conduct, and accept genuine #plebiscites in the regions which could leave #Russia without the #Donbas. 2/4
CC: @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @ukraine_world @intercourier_ua @TerekMedia @KyivIndependent
CC: @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @FiS_Heidelberg @ukraine_world @intercourier_ua @TerekMedia @KyivIndependent
3. However, we and Putin know from many opinion polls that support for #separatism was always much lower than 50% in the #Donbas. See the relevant opinion polling data collected by #KMIS @PA3yMKOB @dem_initiatives and other Institutes. 3/4
4. #Luttwark's proposal sounds like a #Minsk-3 that would be as much a pseudo-solution as the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements were until recently. More on the latter in this @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden @ResearchUI report with @HugovonEssen: sceeus.se/en/publication…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
