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Jun 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Lots happening in the last couple of days, huge fires break out in the last hour at the #Verkhnokamianka refinery due to shelling and strikes, the first of which started last night, and intensified greatly today. This large refinery is at the last critical junction of the Image
Lysychansk salient. Capture of this junction and/or #Siversk would complete the Lysychansk Severodonetsk encirclement. Will update further soon, travels once again delayed my updates, as brave soldiers on the ground on each side battle furiously for these critical positions. Image
#Popasna itself, the supply point for the RU forces executing the encirclement from the south and rear, is being mercilessly shelled by #Ukrainian forces. Despite their claim to being outgunned 10 to 1 in artillery, it certainly lately does not seem so in these areas where
shelling has been very intense from both sides. It is possible that certain arriving western weapons are started to improve UA's artillery situation. As opposed to 4 weeks ago, we see UA artillery activity being more intense, numerous and at longer ranges.

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More from @ZimermanErik

Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 24
The southern sector of the #Lysychansk - #Severodonetsk salient, that is the Hirske - Zolote sector, is surrounded by #Russian forces and quickly being reduced. We were right on the mark, as this is now confirmed by many additional sources. The question is what is next?
Firstly we must note how the western media, as a mouthpiece for #Ukrainian announcements had not even acknowledged the capture of #Vrubivka, key to the closing of the cauldron, when the entire cauldron in fact was closed. Here we knew what had occurred.

With Vrubivka now well in the rear, we have some footage released showing the village is well within Russian lines. The encirclement completed the questions are how long UA forces within it can hold out, if they can break out and if they can be relieved or resupplied?
Read 25 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 22
Ladies and gents, we have our first complete major encirclement in the #Donbass. Not only long awaited but very hard fought, the UA regime, desperate to show the western powers that with support, it can in fact win, used (or abused) its troops to hold the salient to the maximum.
We are talking about the Hirske - Zolote cauldron, the southern part of the larger Lysychask salient. UA forces did not retreat from the cauldron until the very last possible moments. The best combat ready units have in the last day or two, withdrawn but other units remain in
their positions. We will look at evidence of this, but first let us note that what occurred, while UA sources still do not admit the loss of #Vrubivka (the key point for this maneuver), is the seizure of the Lokutivka - Rai-Oleksandrivka - Pidlisne complex along with Myrna Dolyna
Read 16 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 16
An update on this rapidly disappearing salient. Though reporting even from good sources was mostly silent on this, #Russian forces agreed with the importance of this salient, and are eliminating it as we expected. In the first major instance in the war #Ukrainian forces retreated
rather than become encircled, with Russian forces behind them on the main road (M03), ahead in the main front, and closed in by the Vuhlehirske Reservoir on their west. The small cities of Svitlodarsk, Luganske & Myronivkyi quickly fell to RU forces.

The highly fortified & entrenched front line that had held for years was gone, but the UA forces were saved. Though the power plant was reported seized (after UA forces tried to blow the dam and flood the area, thankfully unsuccessfully (for the citizens of the area) by RU, it
Read 15 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 15
We may have our answer, not 18 hours after the post, we had the first unconfirmed reports of the #Russian capture of #Vrubivka. VIIRS data lends supporting evidence to this as it has been 54+ hours since the last hotspot data from Vrubivka on the 12th (captured in previous post).
There was heavy shelling on the 11th (preparation), less so on the 12th (in support of advance) & none (that we can see) thereafter. This pattern coincides with a RU assault on the town. At the same time, strikes continued north of Vrubivka around Loskutivka & Novoivanivka
towards where we would expect a additional advances to seal the #Zolote - #Hirsk cauldron, itself part of the larger & rapidly enveloping Severedonetsk - Lysychansk salient. If true, the town's capture seals the fate of the entire salient, by first sealing the fate of the smaller
Read 15 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 14
Since nightfall, we have seen signs of a #Russian counteroffensive in the #Kherson region where previously, RU forces had been content to resist #Ukraine's much touted offensive in the region that has yet to achieve any significant advance. RU forces may be going to the the coast
and the Halytsynove area (where they had been earlier in the war), in order to cut off UA forces fighting to take Oleksandrivka and #Stanislav. Indeed, around the same time we see the latter was shelled. It is also possible that RU forces are simply advancing north along the bank
headlong into the UA offensive, but more likely that they are attacking from the east, towards the Ukrainian flank as they attack south towards Stanislav. We shall see what if anything results from these actions, which seem like an escalation in scale from what we have seen in
Read 4 tweets
Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jun 10
An update on this operation. The #Russian crossing was indeed successful. While fighting continued in the area until the 8th, #Sviatohirsk is fully in RU control. #Tetianivka across the river was captured, as well as #Pryshyb & its high grounds. Fighting in Bohordychne continues
& it has held already longer than I first expected. However the RU forces retain fire control over the bridge & large parts of the town & should fully control it in the near future. As of our last known data, the bridge remained standing, though RU forces already have alternative
crossings in the area. Reports indicate RU forces are already advancing towards #Sydorove which is a key town to hold as we discussed earlier. However, the more interesting question is the RU direction after that or even before that. Strong UA forces still hold the front at
Read 9 tweets

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