- They come up w/ a plan to return $$ over time to anyone that wants to withdraw (highly likely IMO since they are illiquid, not insolvent)
- They stabilize the business (albeit smaller) while the market bounces back pre-election US
1/
- $CEL continues to trend 🆙due to #CelShortSqueeze, slow release f/ App, higher trading volume, yield from cxCEL deployment, and more utility
- They uncover/prove coordinated FUD campaign & market manipulation that regains some of the trust lost (perhaps some $$ too)
2/
They:
- Launch free @Visa Signature credit card w/ $CEL benefits (Jul-Aug)
- Roll out on/off ramps in most US states (Jul-Aug) and abroad (Q4)
- Expand free #swaps (minimal spreads) to more countries (Q3)
- Create a #DAO to self-insure against counter-party risk (Q1 '23)
3/
- They roll out #StakingRewards & #NFTs custody services with 100% insurance through their custody arm @GK8_Security for everybody (incl US unaccredited & institutions) Q4.
- As capital markets recover & obtain SEC approval, they go public with their mining division Q1 2023.
4/
- By Q2/Q3 '23, they are operating business as usual & the community is stronger as a result.
This is my base case scenario to which I assign 75-80% probability (not FA).
What's your probability?
5/
@CelsiusNetwork vertically integrated #CeDeFi services, strong mgt & community, operating in a fast-growing industry with a screaming need to replace #TradFi makes me an (objective) optimist.
And for those naysayers, I'd stay away from shorting a strong community (FA).
6/
- Minimal exp to #UST (Pulled out of #Anchorprotocol early following risk mitigation process)
- No directional exp to #luna
- No forced selling of stETH at discount (withdrawals paused & @Mashinsky stated 'plenty of ETH').
ON stETH:
- Current Discount is 5.4% (and closing) on ~$400M-$500M = ~$25M
- Discount represents ~0.25% of $10B in AUM.
- Discount likely has a floor (arbitrageurs/speculators will intervene as PoS date approaches).
- Plenty of FUD online around this low risk exposure.
2/
- Over-collaterized retail lending (no risk)
- Nearly 100% collaterized institutional lending (including potential loans to #3AC directly or indirectly)
- On-chain borrowing is known & public. Liquidation levels have been lowered/loans repaid (situation stabilized)
3/
Mixing and matching ASSETS and PROTOCOLS to take your liquidity where it will be treated best represents such a massive market that it is difficult to grasp the potential.
1/
It will be particularly beneficial to $CEL token.
@CelsiusNetwork team is not hyping this (conservative on the regulation side), but I see yield paid on $CEL going up in the next few months (along with its demand) as the #CEL treasury is more efficiently deployed.
2/
Hope @Zach_HODL_ON and team are pushing to find added utility for $CEL in addition to being a liquidity generating asset (ie gas requirement?)
3/
She is a 70-yr old Argentinean whose husband recently passed away. Worked all her life to raise 4 kids. Middle class. Her income consists of only a portion of her husband's pension fund that does not keep up with 50%+ inflation.
1/4
She had a small amount of US$ stored under the mattress to protect it from bank/government confiscation (as history taught her). I convinced her family to open a @CelsiusNetwork and deposit 75% USDC/25% CEL token.
2/4
Her USDC now earns ~10% & her CEL will soon earn 6%+. This generates enough yield to double her income & her funds are now protected. Now, waiting for swap function to buy her some #btc 😎
3/4