Thread by @ZimermanErik

The southern sector of the #Lysychansk - #Severodonetsk salient, that is the Hirske - Zolote sector, is surrounded by #Russian forces and quickly being reduced. We were right on the mark, as this is now confirmed by many additional sources. The question is what is next?

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1539643980853350400

Firstly we must note how the western media, as a mouthpiece for #Ukrainian announcements had not even acknowledged the capture of #Vrubivka, key to the closing of the cauldron, when the entire cauldron in fact was closed. Here we knew what had occurred.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1536917502030225409

With Vrubivka now well in the rear, we have some footage released showing the village is well within Russian lines. The encirclement completed the questions are how long UA forces within it can hold out, if they can break out and if they can be relieved or resupplied?

Normally we would expect RU forces to take days to consolidate their lines around the cauldron. Gaps must be closed to stop troops from fleeing and supplies and/or reinforcements from entering. Expecting UA to send their daring Mi-8 pilots to do either can also be expected and so

anti-air positions have to be established. Positions and patrols around the cauldron are not enough, as forces must prepare not only to stop fleeing soldiers and back-country supply efforts but also proper breakout attempts. That is the entire perimeter must be able to sustain

the entire brunt of the surrounded forces forcefully trying to break out fighting. Likewise the cauldron must resist external forces relieving the siege by "breaking in". This all requires much work, from building basic fortifications and seizing high ground, to patrolling gaps

and setting up kill zones by zeroing in artillery to possible escape/supply routes. Only after the cauldron is secured and hermetic, can the work of reducing it start. Despite all this, in this case, it seems that RU forces may rush the cauldron and end it fairly quickly. While

we cannot tell how long the last units may hold out, we do see early indicators of a speedy reduction. Firstly, we know that many of the best and most combat-ready UA units were withdrawn before the enrichment was completed. The remaining troops are likely to be largely

undertrained and undersupplied units, who may feel abandoned, betrayed or abused by higher command to one degree or another. They do not have a large city or massive industrial sector (like Azovstal) from where to make a sustained defense. They certainly don't have the kind of

bunkers that can sustain massive bombing, such as what we saw at Azovstal. There are already reports of large surrenders, and we may expect them to continue. The reduction of the cauldron is not likely to be a lengthy event. This leaves us with Lysychansk and Severodentsk proper,

and the main part of the salient in the north. Some forces including foreign mercenaries or volunteers, are trapped within the industrial sector (Azotal) of Severodonetsk. The rest however still have the possibility of withdrawal and resupply, we shall see what the UA

command prefers. The battle for the complete encirclement of the salient is still significant. I believe Russian forces will first make every effort to advance on #Vovchoyarivka & the surrounding high ground. This ridge commands the low lying surroundings including the remaining

open road to Lysychansk. With the ridge secured, the large oil refinery at #Vekhnokamyanka, Topolivka & the T1302 highway are the main targets. I then expect Russia forces to advance on Bilohorivka or its surroundings. This is where RU forces infamously attempted a river crossing

from the north; a failed crossing which resulted in significant (though exaggerated in mainstream coverage) losses for Russia. Bilohorivka will now be threatened from at least two sides. Attacking a position from opposing sides has numerous advantages and is a force multiplier.

It is hard to overestimate its benefits for the attacker (and detriment to the defender). Firstly supplies to the defending position can be reduced or cut completely since the enemy is coming at it from both sides. Positions which are very strong defensively towards one direction

may not be so against the other. Very importantly, artillery, 'the god of war", which can be corrected and aimed from more than one direction is exponentially more effective. Likewise long range direct fire from both directions can easily stress, confuse, paralyze and overwhelm

an enemy. The seizure of the main highway at the junction or elsewhere will surmount to an operational encirclement of the salient. Capturing Bilohorivka (or areas nearby) & reaching the Siverskyi Donets river will mean the complete and total closing of the cauldron. After this,

we can expect Russian forces to attempt an advance on #Siversk, the strategic road and rail hub in the northern sector. Though a key target, #Ukraine has been able to defend it trough stubborn reinforcement and the help of the river. The upcoming advance on Siversk we can expect

to likewise come from two or more axis. RU forces across the river will pressure the city from the west (Zakitne area) and north, while the Popasna forces advance from the east once Bilohorivka and the oil refinery are secured. Additionally, Siversk might face an advance from the

south and southeast from Vyimka along the double track railway line. These advances are likely to be achieved by Russia in the near future but they are by no means a cakewalk. The distances, given stubborn resistance by UA forces are still significant. But if the collapse that we

are seeing continues, then it will proceed speedily & seal the fate of thousands of UA troops who will be forced to surrender. Because of the inaccurate reporting by UA authorities (parroted by western media), these events may have a strong demoralizing effect noy only among the

#Ukrainian public but also among the Western public who will question their open ended support of Ukraine. A more realistic and honest reporting of the war by UA authorities, admitting how difficult the situation and how much courage among its men is needed to stop the Russian

advance, rather than mocking it while repeating that only this piece of artillery, this many dollars, or this drone, or that many fighter jets, is all Ukraine needs to win, would have left #Ukraine much better positioned to whether such defeats. It would also allow it to sustain

territorial losses while preserving its army (by withdrawing strategically), but the PR path that it has chosen does not allow such flexibility. Hence Ukraine chooses to send its undertrained & undersupplied men to hold every meter of land to the death. While it bought UA some

time in its PR game, and afforded it some mor western support, as the cauldrons close more will wonder about the wisdom of such a strategy.

#UkraineRussianWar #RussianUkrainianWar