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When will #Ukraine fall and what will trigger it?
Some thoughts about strategy:
Many people often discussing why Ukraine is holding on some undefendable places in #Donbass and by doing this, sacrificing a huge quantity of people and material.
The best current example is
When will #Ukraine fall and what will trigger it?
Some thoughts about strategy:
Many people often discussing why Ukraine is holding on some undefendable places in #Donbass and by doing this, sacrificing a huge quantity of people and material.
The best current example is
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the battle for #Severodonestk and #Lyssytschansk.
Well, of course I do not have inside information, but here are my assumptions.
The #Donbass (and some neighboring oblasts as well) is the industrial center of #Ukraine. From my point of view all Western, and Ukrainian
the battle for #Severodonestk and #Lyssytschansk.
Well, of course I do not have inside information, but here are my assumptions.
The #Donbass (and some neighboring oblasts as well) is the industrial center of #Ukraine. From my point of view all Western, and Ukrainian
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intelligence and government institutions know very well, that #Ukraine will fall to #Russia. Therefore the question arose how to make it sustainably as painful as possible for the Russians, and thereby for Ukrainians, which will fall back into the Russian sphere.
intelligence and government institutions know very well, that #Ukraine will fall to #Russia. Therefore the question arose how to make it sustainably as painful as possible for the Russians, and thereby for Ukrainians, which will fall back into the Russian sphere.
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To make it a little bit more clear. #Ukraine is currently fighting against #Russia and is commanded fully by Western officers and bought politicians. This will change in 1-3 years. As soon as the war is over, and the successor entities of Ukraine becomes either a part of
To make it a little bit more clear. #Ukraine is currently fighting against #Russia and is commanded fully by Western officers and bought politicians. This will change in 1-3 years. As soon as the war is over, and the successor entities of Ukraine becomes either a part of
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#Russia, or being allied micro states dependent on #Moscow, those states or the greater Russia will be an enemy of "The West". With this knowledge in mind I would argue it is pretty obvious why "The West" is commanding the corrupt #Ukraine|ian elites, to hold industrial places
#Russia, or being allied micro states dependent on #Moscow, those states or the greater Russia will be an enemy of "The West". With this knowledge in mind I would argue it is pretty obvious why "The West" is commanding the corrupt #Ukraine|ian elites, to hold industrial places
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facilities, plants etc. all over eastern #Ukraine.
1) All the main Soviet industrial plants could see similar hostage situations like in #Azot and #Azovstal. The West achieves two objectives --> Massive costs for #Russia to either rebuild them, after the war. This would be
facilities, plants etc. all over eastern #Ukraine.
1) All the main Soviet industrial plants could see similar hostage situations like in #Azot and #Azovstal. The West achieves two objectives --> Massive costs for #Russia to either rebuild them, after the war. This would be
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needed, to guarantee the #Ukraine|ian people employment after the war, to appease them as quick as possible. If they can't rebuild it, they will lose economic potential and risk unrest in the population, when it sits at home without anything to do.
2) Destroying of as many
needed, to guarantee the #Ukraine|ian people employment after the war, to appease them as quick as possible. If they can't rebuild it, they will lose economic potential and risk unrest in the population, when it sits at home without anything to do.
2) Destroying of as many
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Ukrainian people as possible. This has two goals: a) Today they fight #Russia, tomorrow they will fight "The West" as part of the Russian sphere. b) By throwing a million Ukrainian people into the battle, and we can assume that ALL will either be dead or captured within 1-2
Ukrainian people as possible. This has two goals: a) Today they fight #Russia, tomorrow they will fight "The West" as part of the Russian sphere. b) By throwing a million Ukrainian people into the battle, and we can assume that ALL will either be dead or captured within 1-2
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years, "The West" achieves, that every family in #Ukraine has dead members and therefore an eternal hate against Russians. This ensures, that a true realignment with #Russia could take approx. 30-40 years. Which is not that bad considering the life-cycle of a nation.
years, "The West" achieves, that every family in #Ukraine has dead members and therefore an eternal hate against Russians. This ensures, that a true realignment with #Russia could take approx. 30-40 years. Which is not that bad considering the life-cycle of a nation.
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If we sum this up, than we can conclude, that "The West", by commanding #Ukraine leadership, is destroying intentionally #Ukraine as a whole in an attempt to retreat out of it, by using the "scorched earth" strategy, that #Russia used against #Napoleon.
If we sum this up, than we can conclude, that "The West", by commanding #Ukraine leadership, is destroying intentionally #Ukraine as a whole in an attempt to retreat out of it, by using the "scorched earth" strategy, that #Russia used against #Napoleon.
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There will be many more such "hold" orders in #Donbass, at several industrial complexes, as well as in #Kharkiv, #Zaporizhzhia, #Dnepropetrovsk, #Nikolayev and #Odessa. Incl. the very well known hostage situations (#Azot and #Azovstal types).
There will be many more such "hold" orders in #Donbass, at several industrial complexes, as well as in #Kharkiv, #Zaporizhzhia, #Dnepropetrovsk, #Nikolayev and #Odessa. Incl. the very well known hostage situations (#Azot and #Azovstal types).
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Now the question arises of course, for how long can this go on? Well, I recommend you to read my former threads for a better understanding. But I think I can say the following. There is a rate of attrition of both, resources (man and equipment) and motivation/morale of the
Now the question arises of course, for how long can this go on? Well, I recommend you to read my former threads for a better understanding. But I think I can say the following. There is a rate of attrition of both, resources (man and equipment) and motivation/morale of the
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people, to keep up fighting.
The struggle for the whole of #Ukraine (there will be only a full surrender or the collapse of resistance, to hinder #Russia to drive right trough to #Lvov in a certain period of time), will eventually end, when one of both attrition subjects
people, to keep up fighting.
The struggle for the whole of #Ukraine (there will be only a full surrender or the collapse of resistance, to hinder #Russia to drive right trough to #Lvov in a certain period of time), will eventually end, when one of both attrition subjects
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rise so high, that it simply can't be replenished anymore by Western means. This point would have been reached maybe 50 days ago already, if "The West" wouldn't pay ALL relevant Ukrainian wages and promote to the people, that its army is winning big against #Russia.
rise so high, that it simply can't be replenished anymore by Western means. This point would have been reached maybe 50 days ago already, if "The West" wouldn't pay ALL relevant Ukrainian wages and promote to the people, that its army is winning big against #Russia.
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#Russia is grinding the #Ukraine|ian resources ever faster down. The attrition rate is rising by the day. The replenishment will get ever more difficult, as more training grounds, infrastructure and logistics hubs get destroyed. The West will exactly delivering ammunition and
#Russia is grinding the #Ukraine|ian resources ever faster down. The attrition rate is rising by the day. The replenishment will get ever more difficult, as more training grounds, infrastructure and logistics hubs get destroyed. The West will exactly delivering ammunition and
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heavy weapons, as long as they see, that this weapons can serve to the goals, mentioned above (kill Russians and Ukrainians and destroy its infrastructure, by forcing Ukrainians to hold such objects and die there). When "The West" sees, that a final collapse is near, it will
heavy weapons, as long as they see, that this weapons can serve to the goals, mentioned above (kill Russians and Ukrainians and destroy its infrastructure, by forcing Ukrainians to hold such objects and die there). When "The West" sees, that a final collapse is near, it will
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pull out all its assets and resources, that they rationally can, and stop all future deliveries.
Regarding the attrition of moral and motivation I guess, that the propaganda, spread by "The West" in #Ukraine, to keep the Ukrainians fighting "to the last Ukrainian" will
pull out all its assets and resources, that they rationally can, and stop all future deliveries.
Regarding the attrition of moral and motivation I guess, that the propaganda, spread by "The West" in #Ukraine, to keep the Ukrainians fighting "to the last Ukrainian" will
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blow up badly, as soon as the graveyards all over #Ukraine will get filled that much, that they will need new areas, where to bury their man. Currently it is still good covered, because they can label thousand of fallen soldiers, as "missed in action" MIA. So no graves and
blow up badly, as soon as the graveyards all over #Ukraine will get filled that much, that they will need new areas, where to bury their man. Currently it is still good covered, because they can label thousand of fallen soldiers, as "missed in action" MIA. So no graves and
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compensations are needed. I assume this will change radically as ever more information of the state of the battlefield will come out of the #Donbass.
When will this attrition rates conclude in a collapse?
Well, since most of the #Ukraine|ian army is concentrated in the
compensations are needed. I assume this will change radically as ever more information of the state of the battlefield will come out of the #Donbass.
When will this attrition rates conclude in a collapse?
Well, since most of the #Ukraine|ian army is concentrated in the
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#Donbass, and it will be destroyed, as soon as Donbass falls, this could be one possible point, where it could happen. But it hasn't to. I consider at least #Kharkiv, #Zaporizhia and #Dnepropetrovsk as strategically important, for The West, to get destroyed by fighting.
#Donbass, and it will be destroyed, as soon as Donbass falls, this could be one possible point, where it could happen. But it hasn't to. I consider at least #Kharkiv, #Zaporizhia and #Dnepropetrovsk as strategically important, for The West, to get destroyed by fighting.
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I guess, "The West" will do all it can, to keep the #Ukraine|ian army up fighting, until all of this oblasts got fully destroyed by "house to house" fighting. After this is achieved, I assume Ukraine will fall like a hot potato, since The West will have achieved its strategic
I guess, "The West" will do all it can, to keep the #Ukraine|ian army up fighting, until all of this oblasts got fully destroyed by "house to house" fighting. After this is achieved, I assume Ukraine will fall like a hot potato, since The West will have achieved its strategic
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aims in this part of the world.
The question is, though, whether the #Ukraine|ian army, or the morale/motivation of the population, will last that long, or will it collapse sooner (maybe after #Donbass liberation?) and the war will be over?
As I hear from #Russia|an sources,
aims in this part of the world.
The question is, though, whether the #Ukraine|ian army, or the morale/motivation of the population, will last that long, or will it collapse sooner (maybe after #Donbass liberation?) and the war will be over?
As I hear from #Russia|an sources,
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the assumption is, that this point will be reached at the end of this year. (General Winter will join the game on #Russia|n side).
Considering this time frame I would give it the fall of #Donbass and one additional urban oblast. (#Kharkiv or #Zaporizhia?)
the assumption is, that this point will be reached at the end of this year. (General Winter will join the game on #Russia|n side).
Considering this time frame I would give it the fall of #Donbass and one additional urban oblast. (#Kharkiv or #Zaporizhia?)
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