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Jul 1 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Russian forces retreated from #SnakeIsland on June 30 following a Ukrainian missile and artillery campaign. The Russian Defense Ministry spun the retreat as “a step of goodwill.”
Read our latest report w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun… ImageImageImageImage
As ISW said earlier, the Russian defeat on #SnakeIsland will alleviate some pressure off the #Ukrainian coast by removing #Russian air defense and anti-shipping missile systems from the island, but it will not end the sea blockade. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
That's because Russian forces have access to land-based anti-ship systems in #Crimea and western #Kherson Oblast that can still target Ukrainian cargo, as well as the use of the remaining ships of the Black Sea Fleet.
Russian milbloggers overwhelmingly defended the Russian decision to withdraw troops and equipment from the island, claiming that Russian forces are prioritizing the “liberation of Donbas.”

Read more from tonight's report: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jul 2
The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30 introducing “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military operations.
The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or on federal holidays.
The Kremlin's amendment noted that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy."
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 1
"The Russian army has multiple routes for supplying Kherson," @georgewbarros tells @Newsweek. Ukraine needs more long-range artillery systems capable of disrupting Russian rear area supply lines, supply depots, C2, and support elements to besiege the city.
newsweek.com/ukraine-retaki…
Here's @georgewbarros's June 24 map for @Newsweek showing Russia's supply lines in the Kherson region: Image
More from @georgewbarros on what it would take to liberate Kherson:

"It's possible that HIMARS and similar Western systems could make a decisive difference in the coming months, but given Russian artillery will be shooting back from positions in residential areas...
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 30
Ukraine’s expulsion of Russian forces from Snake Island is a significant accomplishment for Kyiv and an important defeat for Moscow.

However, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and land-based anti-ship systems in Crimea and Kherson Oblast can still threaten ships sailing to Odesa. Thread:
Ukrainian forces are unlikely to reoccupy Snake Island, but they don’t need to - they needed to get the Russians off it, and they did. (2/6)
Russia needed Snake Island to threaten the sea route to Odesa along the Romanian coast, which is the safest way for ships to skirt the blockade of grain and other exports. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 29
According to ISW, the next phase of the war may depend on Russia’s ability to “recoup combat power” from the captured eastern city of Severodonetsk.

@washingtonpost: Battle may grind on through summer in Ukraine’s east, analysts say
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
More from our June 28 assessment:

The remaining Russian forces in #Severodonetsk will need to cross the Siverskyi Donets River into #Lysychansk from Severodonetsk or its surrounding settlements to participate further in the Russian offensive.

isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
This movement could require some time since the Russians destroyed the three main bridges across the river. However, Russian officials have claimed that Russian forces have already crossed the river from Kreminna and are building bridgeheads for further attacks on Lysychansk.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 24
As @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed, the loss of #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk will not represent a major turning point in the war in Ukraine. (1/6)

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk areas and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective by slowing down and inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces. (2/6)
Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces' overall capabilities while preventing them from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 20
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian sources confirmed that #Russian forces control all of #Severodonetsk except for the #Azot chemical plant, where fights are ongoing on June 20.
isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Russian forces focused on maintaining positions to the SE of #Izyum and west of #Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances towards #Slovyansk on June 20. Russian forces remain unlikely to advance on Slovyansk as they concentrate resources on the capture of Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication east of Bakhmut along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but did not make any confirmed advances on June 20. isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Read 4 tweets

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