Thread by @ZimermanErik

Additional events on this front and the underreported forest fights on the flanks of #Izium, the vital Russian supply hub & gateway south through the Kharkhov oblast forest belt. Video, reportedly from around Zalyman has emerged from #Russian sources. Shows a #Ukrainian pontoon

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542007500936978433

crossing, a boat & personnel hit by RU forces. Despite the source's claim, I have tentatively geolocated it to an area southeast of Chepil, the UA stronghold in the area. The area is a good crossing point for UA forces for several reasons. Firstly, it is far from the Russian main

forces around Izium. However, though it is not as far as the far flank (where we may expect all the crossings) around Protopopivka & Zahorodnje, it lies in a continuous dense forest extending far to the east & towards Izium, all the way to Ivanivka. This is perfect terrain for UA

special forces to advance through and defend in. The rest of the forest belt further south, though very large is less dense and interrupted by roads, agricultural clearings and drier terrain. We can see that through this crossing, UA forces were able to project strength eastwards

and occupy Rudneve, which itself can serve as a small forward operating base and supply hub. From here UA forces can advance both along the dense forest in the north along the river, and through larger minor roads through the less dense terrain in the south. Good for boots and

tracks/wheels. Now this particular crossing has been standing for a while (see next tweet). This was likely a key strategic point for the long running harassment of Russia's supply lines through Izium and threat to even completely cut it off. As we have discussed before, in my

view, Ukraine should have focused more resources on this effort. The pontoon bridge was not present on May 13th, and is clearly there on May 16th. Russia meanwhile, needs to eliminate this threat and it may have finally targeted it now (assuming the video is recent) because it:

1. Could not do so previously.
2. Was not aware of the crossing (unlikely for this long).
3. Was waiting for a more opportune time. As we have been discussing for a while (over 22 days), I suspected Russia may try to outflank the troublesome forest belt & secure its western edge

along the river (See

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1535068295753506817

&

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542007506930700288

if interested). Now that RU forces are across the river on its western bank & advancing to seal the forest from the west, attacking the crossings may be at the right time. This potentially disrupts the ability

of Ukrainian troops to withdraw back west, both to defend against the advance, and to avoid encirclement. Russia may be trying to trap those force within, or at the least disrupt & slow their movement. If this is the case, the attack may have even been premature as RU forces are

still a ways off. Too much fog of war on this front to be certain of anything going on within it, but it remains a little mentioned dynamic front where battles of movement are being carried out by brave men on both sides. Its victory is strategic.

#RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineWar