Erik Zimerman Profile picture
Jul 1 10 tweets 4 min read
As an interesting note to the previous thread, please note that the #Russian footage shows us #Ukrainian troops approaching the river crossing by civilian vehicles. It is possible that #Ukraine thought that this crossing was unknown to Russia for these many weeks (unlikely).
Therefore it resorted to what it believed to be highly covert tactics to keep it unknown. While use of civilian vehicles for this purpose is (perhaps arguably) against the Geneva Conventions, specifically prohibited as an act of Perfidy, & hence war crime; it is something else
as well. Something one would think ought to disturb #Ukraine even more so. This type of behavior clearly endangers civilian lives, specifically those of Ukrainian citizens which the regime at #Kiev claims to care deeply about. While perfidy is an offense against your adversary in
that you relied on his good honor and conduct to gain an advantage over him, the danger to civilian citizens is being created by Ukraine on its own. It may not care much if it only endangers those in the east it considers Russians (though not the land under their feet of course)
and separatists, but by using unmarked civilian vehicles for military purposes, especially "tip of the spear" operations such as this at or near the front lines, it obviously removes the ability of RU forces to assume a civilian vehicle is in fact one, and is carrying civilians.
This makes all civilian vehicles, especially those near the front lines, potential targets for the RU forces. Suspicious activity as small as simply driving through country roads near the front (common enough in Ukraine) can trigger nervous Russian observers. Of course if Russia
categorically continues to refuse to fire at civilian unmarked vehicles, regardless of the circumstances & level of suspicion, then it will indeed be a victim of perfidy as it will be at the disadvantage of its foe being well supplied with transport cloaked in magical immunity.
War is a tough business and no decent nation would subject its soldiers to such a disadvantage, one dishonorably obtained by its foe, and endangering its men's lives. Russia certainly wouldn't and won't. In this very video we see what appears to be a civilian vehicle targeted.
As much as this, like any other Ukrainian violation (or defeat), will go unreported by the mainstream media its impact on the real war on the real ground is also real & significant. If the world citizenry choses to ignore it (as it is not subject to artillery strikes), perhaps
the Ukrainian citizenry (who is) would do well to do otherwise.

#RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar

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More from @ZimermanErik

Jul 1
Additional events on this front and the underreported forest fights on the flanks of #Izium, the vital Russian supply hub & gateway south through the Kharkhov oblast forest belt. Video, reportedly from around Zalyman has emerged from #Russian sources. Shows a #Ukrainian pontoon
crossing, a boat & personnel hit by RU forces. Despite the source's claim, I have tentatively geolocated it to an area southeast of Chepil, the UA stronghold in the area. The area is a good crossing point for UA forces for several reasons. Firstly, it is far from the Russian main
forces around Izium. However, though it is not as far as the far flank (where we may expect all the crossings) around Protopopivka & Zahorodnje, it lies in a continuous dense forest extending far to the east & towards Izium, all the way to Ivanivka. This is perfect terrain for UA
Read 11 tweets
Jun 30
We have discussed this salient, and its likely encirclement for a long time. The #Lysychansk salient is now operationally encircled, that is significant resupply and reinforcement is no longer possible. Units may still run the gauntlet & attempt to flee. Reports indicate the oil
refinery is in #Russian hands, and that the Siverskyi Donets river has indeed been been forced with #Pryvilia already in RU hands as #Ukrainian forces withdrew. Nearly 2 months ago we discussed at the fall of Popasna, the clear danger to the salient & the likely Russian routes of
advance.
()

Once Vrubivka fell, it was almost inevitable.
()

The key junctions & settlements have been clear. This image reposted from the May 8th thread. Vrubivka recently fell, triggering the collapse of the Hirske Zolote section
Read 25 tweets
Jun 29
Quick update on this front. Thermal activity shows us the #Russian forces continue to press northwards into the refinery and along both its (eastern & western) flanks. We have some large fires breaking out. #Ukrainian resistance is still stiff there (as in most industrial areas
well suited for defense. There is defense from the high grounds in the north around Zolotarivka and we can expect more of it around Bilohorivka. Additionally there are some strong strikes around Pryvillia, yesterday and as recently as 4 hours ago near an existing river crossing.
This may indicate a Russian crossing attempt here or simply the tactical and strategic threat of one to maintain troops in the area pinned down and within the rapidly closing salient. There are plenty of reports however of Ukrainian forces, specifically the best units, fleeing to
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Nearly 20 days later we have additional movement on this "speculative" front. Long and difficult artillery battles have finally left the Vesele to Balakilia line secure, across the forest belt south to the Siverskyi Donets river. As we expected, along the rail line there has been
RU expansion of this front westward towards Andriivka. Then a few days ago reports emerged of Russia securing #Nortsivka north of the forest on the western flank of #Izium, which continues to be a place of constant & under-reported battles.

()

It seemed
to many only a move to help control the forest area from this base. Apparently however it was the first move in an attempt to encircle the whole forest sector from the west. This is what I speculated could happen though I thought this drive might come from the north around Bairak
Read 13 tweets
Jun 29
Satellite imagery recent as June 27 shows us the intense battles going on around the Lysychansk oil refinery (Verkhnokamyanka) and along the T-1302 highway (the Bakhmut - Lysychansk road). South of the refinery. most of the activity is west of the road, corresponding to the
#Russian momentum and advance westwards and northwards towards the river. There are intense strikes a far as the outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske (on the way to Siversk) & east of Sprine along the ridge. We see indications of Topolivka already overrun & action moving north of it.
Even in Berestove the activity is on its western outskirts, indicating Russia might be gaining control of the town. Though there are rumors and reports of a Russian river crossing from the north, sat imagery still do not show us evidence of it. Several older crossings remain
Read 12 tweets
Jun 28
An update folks. The southern sector of the Lysychansk salient was liquidated quickly as we expected (), once it was fully encircled.

The #Azotal plant, also as expected played like a fast forward version of #Aozvstal partly due to a creative #Russian hook
which surrounded it within the larger encircling operation. This included drama with civilians with the plant as well as foreign fighters. We did not cover it much since many others were and I believe the more critical story is the wider encirclement happening, rather than the
specific capture of Azotal or even all Severodonetsk. The northern, larger and more important, sector of the salient remains. We discussed what we could expect here:



We can now update for the last 3 days, pretty much as such. The thermal data for
Read 8 tweets

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