Thread by @MD_Nalapat

"The South China Sea is fast becoming a Chinese lake, given the density of PLAAF and PLAN military bases created within its waters."

In the case of “Mao’s heir” Xi, although almost all such activity remains hidden from the outside world, criticism of the functioning of the Office of the General Secretary (OGS) has been growing inside the higher ranks of the CCP.

More than the party secretariat or the civilian side of the central government, it is the military that has the most influence in the thinking of the present 🇨🇳 CCP General Secretary.

As a consequence, the three “active” fronts of the PLA have witnessed an acceleration of attention and activity since Xi took charge of the PRC in 2012. These are the South China Sea, the Himalayan massif and Taiwan.

Mao took the decision to intervene in Korea in 1950 as a consequence of his belief that General Douglas MacArthur was planning to cross into the PRC from North Korea to set up a base area for operations by the KMT.

In contrast, the PLA invasion across the Himalayan massif into India in 1962 worked as a diversion drawing attention away from the economic woes (including famine) that were sweeping across China at the time.

Although the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India has come under attack multiple times by the PLA and its satellite GHQ Rawalpindi, neither the US nor the rest of NATO appears overly concerned about this.

President Biden and the rest of the leaders of NATO are lavishing resources and attention towards an ultimately futile effort at preventing the Russian military from overcoming Ukrainian resistance.

The PLA is known to be working on military options that involve action across both the eastern as well as the western fronts with India.

The greatest prize for Xi would be the conquest of Taiwan. Choosing the Taiwan option would necessitate the takeover of the entire country by the PLA rather than just its offshore islands.

As conditions in China continue to deteriorate and patience within the public as well as those in the ranks of the party diminish, the CMC under Xi is studying a possible military diversion in any of the three “active” fronts.

Given a situation when Xi may resort to the military option to draw the focus away from the economic woes and reduction in freedoms of PRC citizens, India under PM @narendramodi is on guard. A similar preparation for the worst is in progress in Taiwan under President @iingwen.

Problem for democracies in Asia is the Putin obsession of POTUS Biden,who together with European leaders is eager to continue seeing Russia as Enemy #1 even though that country is not what it was in the Soviet era,& has been replaced as the primary systemic challenger by the PRC.

Full article: ❛Xi Jinping examines military options to offset rising disquiet❜

i.mdnalapat.com/tsg030722

#Taiwan #India #China #Russia #QUAD #BRICS #FreeAndOpenIndoPacific #geopolitics #US #NATO #Ukraine