So it appears as if the #B1G may hold off on further expansion until atleast 2024 (why 2024?, ND/NBC contract expires in April 2025 & the BigTen won't make a move w/out a definitive answer from the Irish). Let's take a look at what Pods may look like from the new 16 team B1G.🧵
Pod 1
USC
UCLA
Northwestern
Illinois

Travel is going to be a nightmare for USC/UCLA. The #B1G would be wise to try and ease that as much as possible. The easiest/closest travel from LA would be to Chicago hence Northwestern. Illinois comes along as NW's biggest rival.
Pod 2
Nebraska
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin

This Pod is fairly self explanatory. Preservation of the historic Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin rivalries is obtained and the new additional rivalries w/ Nebraska are nurtured. #B1G shouldn't spilt these four.
Pod 3
Michigan
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue

This is where it gets tricky. U cant group MSU/tOSU/UM in the same pod & have any semblance of balance. Not putting MSU/UM in the same pod doesnt mean they cant play every yr, might be a designated rivalry? #B1G will have to get creative.
Pod 4
Penn State
Michigan State
Rutgers
Maryland

Still seems awkward not having MSU/UM in the same pod, but like I mentioned; thats where #B1G creativity may have to come in with protected rivalries. PSU/MSU do have a rivalry but on a smaller scale.
The next format that is a possibility would be the traditional Division format. Trying to keep competitive balance in a division format while keeping geography in the realm of semi-sanity is going to be a huge challenge for the #B1G. Here goes.
Division 1
USC
UCLA
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois

Division 2
Ohio St
Penn St
Michigan St
Michigan
Indiana
Purdue
Maryland
Rutgers

See what I mean? Those divisions look horrible. I really hope the #B1G steers clear of divisions.
The third option is for every team to have 3 designated rivals. They then would rotate through the other 6 teams for what has been dubbed a 3-6-6 scheduling model. Still has some warts, but much better than divisions for the new #B1G. Here goes.
USC: UCLA, Penn St, Northwestern

The USC/UCLA matchup is a no brainer. The #B1G is also going to want to matchup #USC w/ a brand. Hard to ask UM or tOSU to play USC. Given they play each other already. I see PSU as the pairing. Northwestern is there for ease of travel.
UCLA: USC, Nebraska, Purdue

Once again USC/UCLA is a no brainer & once again the #B1G is going to want to get a brand into that LA market. UCLA & #Nebraska seems like a good fit. Purdue is another one of convenience.
Nebraska: Iowa, UCLA, Wisconsin

The Iowa/Nebraska game is a must keep, and UCLA has been added for reasons I mentioned above. Wisconsin seems like the best 3rd partner for Nebraska.
Iowa: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota

These are fairly easy. Nebraska/Iowa is there due to proximity and that budding rivalry. The other two are historic and should be kept by the #B1G.
#Minnesota: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan

The first two are fairly easy as they are historic uninterrupted rivalries. The 3rd being Michigan & the annual renewal of the little brown jug.
#Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska

Once again, the first two are historic & should be preserved by the #B1G. The 3rd is a budding rivalry.
#Northwestern: USC, Illinois, Purdue

Northwestern gets USC due to ease of travel through the Chicago hub. The Illinois rivalry is a no brainer & Purdue is the 3rd partner due to proximity.
#Illinois: Northwestern, Ohio State, Indiana

Got to pair with the in-state rival, and although a minor rivalry, the Illi-Buck is restored? Indiana is the 3rd partner here.

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More from @cfb_professor

Jun 23
We are roughly 2 months away from the start of #CFB season! Lets talk expectations. Ill go through each team & give what my model predicts as the % chance each team gets to bowl eligbility, and also the % chance each team gets 10+ Ws given their respective schedules. Lets go!🧵
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws)

#Alabama #RTR 99.9%/89.5%
#Arkansas #WPS 55.3%/11.0%
#Auburn #WarEagle 36.9%/1.8%
#Florida #Gators 81.0%/17.4%
#Georgia #UGA 99.9%/93.3%
#Kentucky #BBN 66.7%/7.3%
#LSU #GeauxTigers 81.8%/29.1%
#HailState 47.8%/2.6%
#SEC (% Chance @ 6+ Ws/% Chance @ 10+ Ws) (cont)
#Mizzou 69.2%/11.6%
#OleMiss 96.9%/41.4%
#SouthCarolina 31.2%/0.8%
#Tennessee #Vols 95.3%/35.6%
#TAMU #GigEm 99.0%/75.1%
#Vanderbilt #AnchorDown 2.3%/ <0.1%
Read 12 tweets
Apr 12
Ready for the #CFB Analytics Spring Top 40? Here we go. This Power Ranking is derived from a model which utilizes full Coach Staff efficiency metrics, roster talent, & returning production among other metrics. No opinion here, I just regurgitate the numbers. #NoOpinionJustNumbers
40 #Kentucky #BBN #SEC Power Rating: 61.726
Returning Production for the Wildcats may be a problem. At 39.72%, it puts them at 113th in the country. The schedule is manageable tho drawing Ole Miss & Miss State out the West. #CFB
39 #Washington #PurpleReign #Pac12
Power Rating: 62.271
Really like the new coaching staff in Seattle. Should put them in a better position to win. Roster talent purge from the prev regime will have an early effect (last 2 classes were 39th, 86th) but the ship has been righted.
Read 42 tweets
Nov 17, 2021
Alright #CFBPlayoff viewers. Lets go through this week's poll. Once again, it was, as it always has been, predictable. The model was off an average of 1 spot per team for the entire Top 25 poll this week. So let's take a look at some resumes shall we? #CFB 🧵
If you took a peak at this projection yesterday, you were prepared for alot of what you saw last night. The resumes are all laid out very similarly to the way the Playoff Committee views them. #ThereIsNoEyeTest
patreon.com/posts/58739176
25 #HailState 6-4
SOS: 29, QW: 4, T25W: 2, GC: 3.3

Despite the horrible game control at 3.3, MSU snuck its way into the poll. They modeled at 26 so this isn't all that surprising. They are riding their good SOS, 4 QWs, and 2 T25Ws at this point. No surprise.
Read 27 tweets
Nov 3, 2021
Ok, lets talk #CFBPlayoff Poll. Time is limited this morning so lets just run through the Top 15. For those of you who signed up as a patron (thank you) or those who have followed long; you know the drill. There is no eye test. The committee uses a well defined process. 🧵
If you read this on Monday, last night was all old news and you already knew what to expect. If you like the suspense of the four letter network's reveal show be warned. #SpoilerAlert
patreon.com/posts/58161598
15 #BYU
SOS: 44, QW: 5, T25W: 0, GC: 4.9

#BYU modeled at 17, so no surprise here. Good SOS, Tied for the most QWs in the poll. Game Control is low, but with a SOS in the Top 50, they'll get a pass. No surprise at 15.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 29, 2021
So far everything Ive commented on in the realm of conference expansion has been make believe. Just day dreams. I did a little reading tho & wanted to go thru what is reality & most importantly, why? Ill be going thru all remaining P5 confs to shed light on their situation. #CFB
First, lets take a look at the #ACC. You can ignore anything you read regarding #NotreDame or any of the the #ACC schools leaving. Just keep right on scrolling, bc it isn’t happening. Why not? The #ACC has a grant of rights agreement which extends until 2036. (continued)
No school is going to be putting their TV revenue on the line for the next 15 yrs. Just wont happen. By the end of this grant of rights agreement tho, the #ACC will be making nearly half of what the #BigTen & #SEC will be in TV revenue (only $34 Million per team in ’19). (cont)
Read 16 tweets
Nov 20, 2019
Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
Read 29 tweets

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