Mr. Shinzo Abe, unfortunately has been killed. Here 2 videos of the scene released thus far. The shooter, a punk who reportedly served in the Navy seemed to be using a homemade gun. The security ring & response leave much to be desired. Though we do see one guard start running
towards the attacker shortly after the failed first shot. Unfortunately he was in an opposite corner and too far to get there before the lethal second shot. Not sure how fast or correct the medical response was either. Condolences to the Japanese nation on the loss of your
honorable leader and a friend. Hope that if any others were involved in addition to this punk, they are quickly discovered. We see him here on the extreme left. Far closer than he should have been while wielding his lethal contraption. Apparently built from two pipes.
The guards could have done much better. But it is extremely difficult to maintain a high vigilance in a job where 99.9% of the time nothing happens. The guard doing the tackling came from quite far & did well. Others closer appeared to have dropped the ball, though the security
ring in general failed quite obviously. We shall see if more and clearer videos surface. Sincere condolences once again to #Japan and Mr. Abe's family.
We may also conclude that it seems the left will have to ban pipes, plastic, metal and 3D-printers as well as guns.
Continuing the operational update. Siversk will be attacked and is difficult to defend. Bakhmut on the other hand is easier to defend for several reasons.
#Bakhmut is a a larger more sprawling city. It includes rough terrain around it and within it better suited for defense.
It has large sections of dense commercial, residential and industrial areas which we have seen UA forces effectively use for defense. Bakhmut, unlike Siversk is not surrounded by high ground but is partially on high ground itself. While Siversk has one main road & rail as an
open supply route, Bakhmut's main roads shoot out in all directions. With significantly sized towns adjacent to the north and west, it is significantly much more difficult to surround. While RU forces, reportedly including PMC Wagner units have already cut off two main roads and
Time to address "what next", at least at the short to mid term operation level. Also hope to address the wider war in a following post. The #Lysychansk#Severodonetsk salient was closed. The cities firmly in #Russian hands. We were not surprised by these events however much those
only following (& believing) mainstream media may have been. However, the UA forces, having learned from previous mistakes mostly were able to withdraw and avoid a massive surrender within the cauldron. Much in heavy weapons & equipment was left behind, as were troops themselves
but overall the bulk of UA's manpower in the northern part of the salient at least, escaped encirclement. The UA smartly did not withdraw merely to a #Siversk#Bakhmut line, which cannot be defended, but attempted to establish a Bakhmut - Soledar - Berestove - Siversk line.
As an interesting note to the previous thread, please note that the #Russian footage shows us #Ukrainian troops approaching the river crossing by civilian vehicles. It is possible that #Ukraine thought that this crossing was unknown to Russia for these many weeks (unlikely).
Therefore it resorted to what it believed to be highly covert tactics to keep it unknown. While use of civilian vehicles for this purpose is (perhaps arguably) against the Geneva Conventions, specifically prohibited as an act of Perfidy, & hence war crime; it is something else
as well. Something one would think ought to disturb #Ukraine even more so. This type of behavior clearly endangers civilian lives, specifically those of Ukrainian citizens which the regime at #Kiev claims to care deeply about. While perfidy is an offense against your adversary in
Additional events on this front and the underreported forest fights on the flanks of #Izium, the vital Russian supply hub & gateway south through the Kharkhov oblast forest belt. Video, reportedly from around Zalyman has emerged from #Russian sources. Shows a #Ukrainian pontoon
crossing, a boat & personnel hit by RU forces. Despite the source's claim, I have tentatively geolocated it to an area southeast of Chepil, the UA stronghold in the area. The area is a good crossing point for UA forces for several reasons. Firstly, it is far from the Russian main
forces around Izium. However, though it is not as far as the far flank (where we may expect all the crossings) around Protopopivka & Zahorodnje, it lies in a continuous dense forest extending far to the east & towards Izium, all the way to Ivanivka. This is perfect terrain for UA
We have discussed this salient, and its likely encirclement for a long time. The #Lysychansk salient is now operationally encircled, that is significant resupply and reinforcement is no longer possible. Units may still run the gauntlet & attempt to flee. Reports indicate the oil
refinery is in #Russian hands, and that the Siverskyi Donets river has indeed been been forced with #Pryvilia already in RU hands as #Ukrainian forces withdrew. Nearly 2 months ago we discussed at the fall of Popasna, the clear danger to the salient & the likely Russian routes of
The key junctions & settlements have been clear. This image reposted from the May 8th thread. Vrubivka recently fell, triggering the collapse of the Hirske Zolote section
Quick update on this front. Thermal activity shows us the #Russian forces continue to press northwards into the refinery and along both its (eastern & western) flanks. We have some large fires breaking out. #Ukrainian resistance is still stiff there (as in most industrial areas
well suited for defense. There is defense from the high grounds in the north around Zolotarivka and we can expect more of it around Bilohorivka. Additionally there are some strong strikes around Pryvillia, yesterday and as recently as 4 hours ago near an existing river crossing.
This may indicate a Russian crossing attempt here or simply the tactical and strategic threat of one to maintain troops in the area pinned down and within the rapidly closing salient. There are plenty of reports however of Ukrainian forces, specifically the best units, fleeing to