Thread by @ZimermanErik

Time to address "what next", at least at the short to mid term operation level. Also hope to address the wider war in a following post. The #Lysychansk #Severodonetsk salient was closed. The cities firmly in #Russian hands. We were not surprised by these events however much those

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1545239972432814080

only following (& believing) mainstream media may have been. However, the UA forces, having learned from previous mistakes mostly were able to withdraw and avoid a massive surrender within the cauldron. Much in heavy weapons & equipment was left behind, as were troops themselves

but overall the bulk of UA's manpower in the northern part of the salient at least, escaped encirclement. The UA smartly did not withdraw merely to a #Siversk #Bakhmut line, which cannot be defended, but attempted to establish a Bakhmut - Soledar - Berestove - Siversk line.

Defending along the ridges and higher ground further east achieves several things. First, keeps UA artillery, now much longer ranged, accurate and powerful closer to the newly gained Russian road and rail hubs. They have been shelled continuously. Popasna itself as recently as on

the 7th, and areas north of it & around Vrubivka as recently as yesterday (though not today). Secondly the defense line attempts to deny or at least delay control of the Bakhmut Lysychansk highway (T-1302) to RU. This done by trying to hold on to Soledar (ideal for defense) and

Berestove. Holding the line here ensures that the Bakhmut Siversk road (T-0513) remains open to Ukrainian forces. Finally and most importantly, the bulged defense line follows the high ground and ridges in the area. Had the UA forces fallen back from them closer to the straight

Bakhmut - Siversk line, they would be holding an immediately untannable line. Russian supply lines would be further back and at greater ease to organize & less threatened, the road feeding Siversk would immediately have been under partial RU fire control, and due to RU control

of the high ground east of the road and defense line, it would be easily cut and overwhelmed. Because of this we have seen the last few days be a combination of a Russian operational pause before renewed advance, massive artillery duels, and battles for this high ground which

does not involve some of the major or better known settlements in the area. In fact, kilometers have been gained by Russia without names to mark them by. But not easily. The VIIRS data paints us a partial picture. Up to the 7th strikes were seen still in the Bilohorivka area,

Hryhorivka area (especially south of it) and Serebrianka. By the 8th, there were no more strikes west of Serebrianka. The fire was in the settlement & increasingly in the high ground west of it. Shelling in the RU held forest north of the river also began to wane. This seems to

indicate that RU forces secured Bilohorivka (which sealed the cauldron) and moved west and captured Hryhorivka. They control this town at the least and may already also control Serebrianka or part of it. This destroyed UA artillery in the area and/or forced it to retreat.

Further south, RU forces captured Spirne and are attacking Ivano-Darivka and its high ground. They are also advancing along the railway line through Vylemka towards Siversk. The western approaches to Siversk have been heavily bombed, preparing for forces to advance from the west.

Siversk is very difficult to defend, though it is a critical regional road and rail hub. It is not a large city, and not too sprawling. Most importantly it is situated in a low river valley surrounded by high ground. It is the battle for this high ground that is important.

The city is mostly light residential. It lacks dense forests surrounding it which we have seen help #Ukrainian defending forces tremendously in delaying a Russian capture. There are some light industrial areas but not many nor very large, and one dense residential are which we

have also seen serve as a stubborn center of Ukrainian defense (such as in Toshkivka). This along with a higher density area along the railway station is not enough for an ideal defense. Very importantly, Siversk, not considered close enough to the front line in the last 8 years

is not fortified like most of the other areas where we have seen key battles in the Donbass. Of course Ukrainians have had a chance to fortify it in the last few months, but not the same as the efforts over the last 8 years which we clearly see elsewhere. The pre war map shows it

devoid of prepared positions and trenches. The attack on Siversk is coming sooner rather than later and we expect it to come from at least 3 sides. However, though the most obvious line of advance at this point involves a river crossing at Zakitne to advance from the west, we may

see something else occur. Let us take a step back. The key peaks and ridges are as follows. From the west, at about 190 meters dominate the city. From the north about 160 meters, and from the east about the same though this is a table that slowly climbs down from 230 meter

heights around Ivano-Darivka (where there is currently fighting). The point is that while RU could try a crossing from Ozerne to Zakitne (supplied by rail from Yampil), this is the riskier move. While the bridge still stands the UA forces could blow it and certainly would try

to ambush the narrow crossing. A crossing at Dronivka further north may be wiser. But the best course of action is likely what the RU forces are already trying. Their advance westwards along the southern river bank, from Bilohorivka to Serebrianka is the key. Not only does that

allow the attack from the north, but it can continue along high ground to Siversk's western flank. Dronivka and Zakitne would be threatened from the rear, while still facing the RU opponent in the direction they are used to from the west across the river. As we have discussed

previously, few things in warfare are as effective as attacking from multiple (especially opposing) flanks. So we are likely to see Siversk attacked in the near future from east (or SE), north and west. To attack it from the south (or SW) as well requires the capture of Zvanikva

and the Bakhmut Siversk road. While at first this may seem less likely, not cutting off the south would be a mistake because it is Siverk's last remaining main road. IF RU forces hold the high ground N, E & W of it, it will be the only road. This will serve not only for supply &

reinforcement, but also for the defending troops to escape at the decided moment. To cut off this possibility requires the forces that may control the western high ground to cut off the road and railway line south of the city. They may do so partially by gaining fire control over

them or capture Sviato-Pokrovske first & Zvanivka in coordination with forces coming from the east. This would be ideal, but we may see RU forces be economical & not attempt this, content to pressure Siversk from 3 sides & capture it, even if UA forces flee southwards. To be cont