Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 – Jul 12 to Jul 18 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 – Western Europe
- Rise/increase/plateau in #COVID19 epid. activ: FR (R-eff=1.14); IT=1.14 CH=1.14; BE=1.17; DK=1.16; ICL=1.10; SE=1.11/NL=1.08; AU=1.07; SP=1.06; FIN=1.06; IRL=1.05/DE=1.02; LUX=1.02
- Landing: NO; PT;
- Medium to very high mort.

3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Albania (R-eff=1.29); Serbia=1.28; Estonia=1.23; Slovenia=1.23; Bulgaria=1.22; Latvia=1.20; Croatia=1.18; Slovakia=1.17;
- Rise: Lithuania=1.15; Greece=1.12;
- Very low to high mortality
- No report from Ukraine

4/9 – Africa
- Surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Mauritania (R-eff=1.25) and Tunisia=1.29, Equatorial Guinea=1.45, very low to low mortality
- Slowly landing in Morocco=0.92, very low mortality
- Green everywhere else, but lot of underreporting

5/9 – Middle-East
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activity in Iraq (R-eff=1.33); Iran=1.41/Lebanon=1.17
- Cyprus=1.18, close to the region, is rising too;
- Plateau in Israel=0.97; Qatar=0.99; UAE=0.97; Kuwait=1.05;
- No to high mortality
- Reported as safe elsewhere

6/9 – Asia & Pacific
- Rapid and worrying surge/surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Japan (R-eff=1.35); SK=1.33/Fiji=1.27, no - very low mort.
- Rise: Malaysia=1.14; NZ=1.15; Australia=1.10, very low - high mort.
- Landing: Taiwan=0.85, high mort.

7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Strict lockdowns which are now back again in several cities of China=1.19;
- Emerging #BA275 in India=1.06;
- Worrying (lack of) news on #COVID19 epidemic activity from North Korea
- Apparently safe elsewhere

8/9 – North America
- Canada (R-eff=1.13) is rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mort. 87.6% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces.
- USA=1.03 is plateauing, medium mort. 79.1% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 6 states, green in N. Dakota.

9/9 – Latin America
- Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid. activ.: Bolivia (R-eff=1.34); Paraguay =1.40/ Peru=1.18; Mexico=1.19; Argentina=1.10;
- Plateau/slowly landing: Guyana=1.03; Colombia=1.01; Brazil=1.01/Chile=0.93; Belize=0.91; Panama=0.92
- Very low - medium mort.

10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil
@KristenN_06

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 –
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0