Over the past few days, the Twittersphere has been expounding on the impact that several #HIMARS rocket artillery systems are having in #Ukraine. And they are awesome! But some perspective is required before expectations for their impact get too overblown. 1/17 🧵 
2/ HIMARS is a lighter, more deployable version of an older tracked launcher that used the same rockets. And because it is mobile, it can shoot and move quickly, making it a very survivable platform in an era of short times between detection and destruction.
3/ HIMARS, because of its range and accuracy, is a weapon that is designed to attack targets deep in the enemy’s rear. It is used to destroy critical communications nodes, command posts, airfields, and important logistics facilities.
4/ It appears that more than a dozen major Russian supply depots, primarily used to store artillery ammunition, have been attacked by the long range #HIMARS rockets in the past few days.
5/ The Ukrainians, shifting away from the attritional fight they have been drawn into in the Donbas, are re-adopting the asymmetric conventional tactics they used so successfully early in the war. smh.com.au/world/europe/w…
6/ They are attacking the Russian weak points once again – its railway centric logistics, its over talkative battlefield generals, and its over reliance on massed artillery to advance in the east.
7/ One key target is command and control nodes, or in other words, command posts with senior Russian commanders. The ability to rapidly target these, once detected, and use the accuracy of the #HIMARS rockets to inflict maximum destruction is vital.
8/ Additionally, many Russian supply depots, located close to railways, are also proximate to civilian towns. The greater accuracy of the #HIMARS permits the Ukrainians to minimise collateral damage in their long-range attacks on Russian targets.
9/ Beyond the physical, there is a psychological impact. Now, a much greater proportion of the invading Russian force falls within the radius that can be attacked. They will have seen its impact, on social media and in person.
10/ And, as @General_Ben has noted, being an ammunition handler in a logistic depot is probably now the least desirable job in the Russian Army. These psychological impacts have a cost on the effectiveness of a military organization.
11/ So, #HIMARS is changing the character of the fight in Ukraine. It is allowing the Ukrainians to target the Russians at greater distance and in areas that have been denied to them because of Russian air defence systems. kyivindependent.com/national/1234
12/ And it has permitted the Ukrainians to fight how they want to fight, and not in the heavy attritional way preferred by the Russians. The #Russians will have #HIMARS at the top of their targeting lists for their long-range missiles and air force.
13/ Despite this, we must not cast the #HIMARS as the wonder weapon that will change the tide of the war. There has been a tendency since the first Industrial Revolution to look for the single technological wonder that will win wars. This is a mirage.
14/ HIMARS is having an important impact and will continue to do so, but it alone will not win this war. While it has provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a new ‘Long Hand’ to attack the Russian invaders, there is no such thing as a silver bullet solution in war.
15/ Importantly, its impact does not abrogate the responsibility of western nations to continue providing the full range of weapons, munitions, intelligence, training and other forms of support required by #Ukraine.
16/ Military forces are complex entities that need many different capabilities layered in function, range, time & impact, integrated by humans. #HIMARS is just one layer – albeit a vital one – in the overall national and military capacity that #Ukraine needs to win this war. End
17/ Thank you to the following, whose images were used in this thread: @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @General_Ben @WarMonitor3 @RALee85
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