Ted Darling Profile picture
Jul 15 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
Hello Friday!

China reporting -2.6% Q/Q growth on the back of Q2 ๐Ÿฆ ๐Ÿ”’๐Ÿ”ป and US retail sales ๐Ÿ›๏ธ on tap.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asian equities closed the week โ†”๏ธ with ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณโ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 26788 +0.55%
$SSEC 3228 -1.65% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWII 14551 +0.8%
$HSI 20304 -2.15%
$KOSPI 2331 +0.35%
$IDX 6652 -0.55%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6606 -0.7%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 53517 +0.2%
Europe opens โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 12738 +1.75%
$FTSE 7120 +1.15%
$CAC 5968 +0.9%
$AEX 669 +1.35%
$IBEX 7909 +1.35%
$MIB 20882 +1.6%
$SMI 10860 +0.55%
$MOEX 2057 -0.3% ๐Ÿช†

$VTSOXX 31.01 ๐Ÿ›—

$DAX range 12425 - 12925 ๐Ÿป
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures trading โ†—๏ธ into #opex
$XLX showing ๐Ÿ’ช into yesterday's close

$ES 3803 +0.35%
$NQ 11817 +0.4%
$RTY 1712 +0.25%

$VIX 26.33 ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿชฃ

$SPX range = 3685 - 3945 ๐Ÿป
$VIX range = 24.20 - 31.80โ™‰๏ธ
GOLD and metals continue to get ๐Ÿ”จโ†˜๏ธ

$GOLD 1700 -0.35%
$SILVER 18.17 -0.3%
$COPPER 3.17 -1.35%
$PLAT 819 +0.2%
$PALL 1884 -0.5%
$ALI 2322 -0.25%
$ZINC 2846 -0.7%

$GVZ 19.60 ๐Ÿ”บ

$GOLD range = 1677 - 1790 ๐Ÿป
$COPPER range = 3.13 - 3.68 ๐Ÿป
Hydrocarbons bouncing around break โ†”๏ธ

$WTIC 96.11 +0.35%
$BRENT 99.84 +0.85%
$NATGAS 6.601 unch
$GASO 3.192 +0.15%

$OVX 53.03

$WTIC range = 90 - 105.45 ๐Ÿป
Grains โ†”๏ธ

$WHEAT 798 +0.4%
$CORN 608 +0.45%
$SOYB 1470 -0.05%
$SUGAR 19.00 +0.05%

$COFFEE 196.90 +0.65% after getting ground -5.8% yesterday

$DBA range 19.01 - 20.53 ๐Ÿป
EUR holding onto parity

$EUR 1.003 +0.15%
$GBP 1.182 +0.03%
$AUD 0.6737 -0.15%
$USD 108.40 -0.01%
$USDJPY 138.82 -0.05%
$USDCHF 0.9803 -0.36%
$USDCAD 1.3115 -0.02%
$USDRUB 58.12 -0.31% ๐Ÿช†

$USD range = 105.51 - 109.40 โ™‰๏ธ
#cryptocurrencies โ†—๏ธ

$BTCUSD 20817 +1.4%
$ETHUSD 1207 +1.2%

$BTC range = 18840 - 21940 ๐Ÿป
UST yields โ†˜๏ธ
10/2s @ -19 BPS

MOVE 137.76 ๐Ÿ›—

$TLT range = 113.50 - 117.30 ๐Ÿป (T) โ™‰๏ธ (t)

Global 10Ys โ†˜๏ธ
$SPX closed well off intraday lows yesterday and $XLK and $BTC showed particular strength

Covered my $XLK short and took off some of my $KBA. Continuing to ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ $TLT long

Flows dictate today into #OPEX

Watch for possible head fake, have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day, and great w/e!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Jul 17
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review 07/17/22

1/7

Has #inflation peaked?

June #CPI +9.1% โ™จ๏ธ, but core +5.9% ๐Ÿ”ป
@NYFedResearch consumer inflation expectations 1-year +6.8% ๐Ÿ”บ, but UMich +5.2% ๐Ÿ”ปfrom 5.3%

And firms +3.7% unch per @AtlantaFed

Letโ€™s dig into more ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
2a/7

#Commodities

Chart: Since the June 10 peak at 329.59, the $CRB is -15.75% โ€“ and deeply oversold Image
2b/7

Metals have been ๐Ÿป Trend since May
(T) = Trend = 3 mos price momentum

$COPPER -8.5% (w) -31.55% (T)
$SILVER -3.4% (w) -27.65% (T)
$PLAT -6.0% (w) -16.5% (T)
$GOLD -2.2% (w) -13.75% (T)

Chart: Base metals โ†˜๏ธ with $DBB -6.45% (w) -31.0% (T) Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 3
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review 07/03/22 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
1/9

Powell is committed to fighting #inflation and cares not whether you lose ๐Ÿ’ฐ during the war.

โ€œThe process is highly likely to involve some pain, but the worst painโ€ฆโ€

Letโ€™s dig into the early campaign results ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/9

The $USD +0.91% โ™‰๏ธ is becoming more dear against major currency pairs with $AUD -1.97%, $GBP -1.49%, and $EUR -1.17% on the week

Chart: $USD +6.3% (T) = 3 mos, +9.75% YTD
3a/9

The UST curve both flattened and steepened with 10/2s โ†˜๏ธ to 5BPS and 30/5s โ†—๏ธ to 23.2 BPS

Chart: $IVOL +2.76% (w), +4.9% (T)
Read 16 tweets
Jul 1
Led by the US Federal Reserve, Central Banks in developed markets across the globe committed to inflation fighting and "demand destruction."

What follows is what happens to asset markets with aggressive ๐Ÿ‘Š ๐Ÿฅฃ removal

1/n
The $USD ๐Ÿ’ช +2.64% as the Fed cut ๐Ÿ’ฆ
2/n
Short-rates rose to pre-pandemic levels before pausing with the UST2Y to 2.92%
3/n
Read 16 tweets
May 29
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

๐Ÿป market rallies are wicked, like a ๐Ÿ•ท luring the ๐Ÿชฐ into her ๐Ÿ•ธ

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the ๐Ÿ˜ฌ of #QT
1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to ๐ŸŽฌ the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

๐Ÿ’ฆ is already โ†˜๏ธ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22
2/9

Big winners on the week, vol ๐ŸŒŠ sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low
Read 18 tweets
May 27
Hello Friday and the week to date!

Week to date

$NATGAS +10.05%
$COFFEE +5.0%
$WTIC +3.45%
$GASO +2.8%
$LUMBER +2.35%
$COPPER -0.35%
$WHEAT -2.2%

$EUR +1.6%
$GOLD +0.3%
$USD -1.25%
$BTC -4.1%

$SPX +4.0%
$CAC +2.0%
$SSEC -0.75%
$KOSPI -1.0%

$TLT +0.25%

Let's dig into the๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia finished the week on an โ†—๏ธ๐ŸŽต

$NIKK 26782 +0.65%
$SSEC 3130 +0.25%
$TWII 15266 +1.85%
$HIS 20683 +2.8%
$KOPSI 2638 +1.0%
$IDX 7026 +2.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7183 +1.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 54865 +1.15%
Europe building on weekly gains โ†—๏ธ at the open

$DAX 14332 +0.7%
$FTSE 7573 +0.1%
$CAC 6472 +0.95%
$AEX 697 +0.65%
$IBEX 8909 +0.25%
$MIB 34575 +0.1%
$SMI 11555 +0.55%
$MOEX 2431 +0.75% ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 25.66๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
May 15
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD ๐Ÿ’ฃ around the ๐ŸŒ with #crypto ๐Ÿ’ฅ and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond โ™‰๏ธs finally caught a ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ, but equity โ™‰๏ธs - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains ๐Ÿ›—

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ ๐Ÿ”จ is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Read 17 tweets

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