🧵 [1] JUST OUT: A statement from the @FSIStanford @McFaul-led International Working Group on Russia Sanctions calling on Canada to reverse #NordStream1 turbine sanctions waiver decision & for German & US governments to politically endorse the reversal👇

drive.google.com/file/d/13IfWfw…
[2] Working Group co-signers of this statement calling for a reversal of the Siemens turbine sanctions waiver include: @McFaul, @JohnEdHerbst, @Nataliia_Shapo, @edwardfishman, @FukuyamaFrancis, @kath_stoner, @steven_pifer, @ben_moll, @MSnegovaya, Richard Morningstar & many more!
[3] The export controls waiver sets an unacceptable sanctions precedent that only emboldens the Putin regime to weaponize its energy leverage over Europe under the guise of dubious technical justifications.
[4] Rather that “countering Russia’s efforts to weaponize energy” the turbine transfer decision sets a troubling precedent that Moscow’s energy pressure can coerce Western leaders to accede to unjustified demands of the Putin regime.
[5] Multiple statements from the German government & technical offices have cast doubt that the turbine demand from Putin is anything but a false technical pretext - and Russia regularly uses dubious technical justifications for its political gas cutoffs & energy pressure.
[6] This is why it is particularly baffling that Berlin still reportedly pressured Ottawa to undermine Canada’s own export controls regime against certain energy technology transfers to Russia in spite of publicly debunking Putin’s false technical pretext.
[7] And even if Russia’s dubious technical justification were merited, it could immediately increase gas flows to the EU via the ample spare capacity along its other routes, like the underutilized Ukrainian gas transmission system.

Russia hasn’t done this.
[8] That Moscow isn’t diverting gas to other routes it has cut off, but instead is making dubious claims about the need for turbines for #NordStream1, and Putin has made calls to instead start #NordStream2, shows the political nature and false justification of the cutoff.
[9] Decision also undermines current technology export restrictions in place against Russia, telegraphing to the Kremlin that energy pressure against Europe is an effective strategy against sanctions relief in the future.

This will be the lesson Putin draws from this waiver.
[10] This is especially concerning as technology export controls are reportedly having a significant impact on a range of sectors, including limiting technologies needed by the Russian military to wage war against Ukraine.

More tech sanctions, rather than waivers, are needed.
[11] At a time when sanctions unity is vital, #Berlin’s pressure on #Ottawa to exempt the Siemens turbines from sanctions undermines Western unity on #Russian export controls measures & degrades #Transatlantic sanctions consensus.
[12] This is why Working Group co-signers call on:

1️⃣ Canada to reverse its turbines waiver decision.

2️⃣ Germany to block transfer of first turbine reportedly sent from Canada to Germany from reaching Russia.

3️⃣ Berlin & Washington to politically endorse these actions.

[END]

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More from @BLSchmitt

May 28
[1] “Once one dismisses the rest of all possible worlds, one finds that this is the best of all possible worlds”

This @washingtonpost retelling of the #NordStream2 sanctions saga borders on the Panglossian by missing key elements:

👇THREAD👇

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
[2] First, the article suggests that the metric by which the July 2021 “deal” to drop mandatory, bipartisan Congressional sanctions to stop the Kremlin-backed #NordStream2 pipeline was an agreement focused such that if Putin invaded Ukraine, Berlin would stop the project:
[3] The article then includes a statement from Germany’s Ambassador to the US, calling the July 2021 “deal” to give the Putin regime’s marquee energy influence project a pass from mandatory sanctions “a sublime form” of “partnership management”:
Read 20 tweets
May 14
🧵[1] The Kremlin & other defenders of #Russia’s state-owned oil & gas firms have long claimed variations on the theme that #Moscow’s energy projects are “just commercial” & “Russia has always been a reliable energy supplier”

Really⁉️

👇Roll highlights👇
cepa.org/natos-eastern-…
[2] 👀 “Russia has always been a reliable energy supplier”

(13 May 2022)

rferl.org/a/31848687.html
[3] 👀 “Russia has always been a reliable energy supplier”

(12 May 2022)

reuters.com/world/europe/r…
Read 26 tweets
May 10
🧵 [1] JUST OUT: The 2nd report I’ve coauthored with the recently-formed International Working Group on Russia Sanctions, coordinated by @FSIStanford @McFaul outlining urgent comprehensive energy embargoes & sanctions on Putin’s regime.

👇Highlights👇

fsi.stanford.edu/working-group-…
[2] 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦Working Group is comprised of a stellar lineup of Transatlantic security experts that coauthored this report, including: @Nataliia_Shapo, @AmbDanFried, @maria_shagina, @edwardfishman, @RichardMNephew, @FukuyamaFrancis, @kath_stoner, @steven_pifer, @OlgaBielkova & more!
[3] For our second report, we have focused on a comprehensive set of “smart embargoes”, sanctions, and policy measures to rapidly limit the ability of the #Kremlin to raise further state revenues via energy sales abroad to the greatest extent possible.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 27
🧵 [1] ALERT: Kremlin-controlled #Gazprom informed #Polish & #Bulgarian officials that it suspended natural gas deliveries to both countries, once again demonstrating how #Moscow continues to weaponize energy against Europe.

👇Details below & in thread👇

apnews.com/article/russia…
[2] 👀 First, the latest flow rates reported by the EU @ENTSOG natural gas network flow transparency portal. According to ENTSOG, Gazprom physical flows at the Kondratki entry point to the Yamal transmission pipeline at the Poland-Belarus border is near zero:
[3] 👀 Meanwhile, @ENTSOG shows the gas flows across at Strandzha-2 interconnector, the entry point of Gazprom’s #TurkStream2 pipeline to the Bulgarian gas transmission system operated by #Bulgartransgaz sharply decreasing in last few days:
Read 21 tweets
Apr 20
🧵
🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦
[1]JUST OUT: Report that I’ve coauthored with the recently-formed International Working Group on Russia Sanctions, coordinated by @FSIStanford @McFaul outlining an urgent comprehensive sanctions package on the Putin regime.

👇Highlights below👇

fsi.stanford.edu/working-group-…
[2] 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇺🇦The Working Group is comprised of a stellar lineup of experts that coauthored this report, including: @AmbDanFried, @maria_shagina, @edwardfishman, @FukuyamaFrancis, @kath_stoner, @steven_pifer, @fromTGA & many more!
[3] The Group placed an outsized focus on measures that will rapidly & drastically reduce the Kremlin’s ability to continue its criminal war of aggression against Ukraine - targeting Russian hydrocarbon export & banking sector, as well as tightening critical tech export controls.
Read 20 tweets
Mar 11
🧵 [1] 🛰 Proud to announce the launch of @DukeU’s SPACE DIPLOMACY LAB - a new program I’ve co-founded at @DUCIGS from my perch @Harvard @CenterForAstro

Our 1st Focus: How will 🇷🇺’s invasion of 🇺🇦 impact space cooperation & how can SpaceTech help 🇺🇦 now.

today.duke.edu/2022/03/new-la…
[2] Recently my @DUCIGS Space Diplomacy Lab Co-Director Prof Giovanni Zanalda & I hosted a roundtable focused on space issues posed by 🇷🇺‘s war on 🇺🇦 & long-term space security challenges w/ space media leaders @LorenGrush, @RaminSkibba & @Jeff_Foust:
👇👇
[3]🚀Recall in Nov, during Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine, the Russian military launched a reckless direct-ascent anti-satellite test, that created a major space debris event & endangered US, EU & Russian personnel on International Space Station

nytimes.com/2021/11/15/sci…
Read 18 tweets

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