1/🧵So, remember when word spread that P.1. was exploding &⬆️young people seriously ill but BCPH narrative re: VOC prevalence was murky at best? Well, what if I told you there's published proof that P.1 cases were almost 4X the disclosed total by #DrHenry @adriandix & @CDCofBC?
2/ Let's travel back to Mar/Apr 2021 when doctors were sounding the alarm wrt to the seriousness of P.1. & #DrHenry emphasized "the small # variants represent" & that they were, as usual, "watching carefully," as per this @PennyDaflos news article: #bcpoli bc.ctvnews.ca/it-really-hit-…
3/ When #DrHenry said they were "watching carefully" she really meant it! You see, as it happens there was a BC study wrt P.1. ongoing headed by BCCDC's Dr.Hogan w/co-authors incl. Dr.Krajden, hosp docs from Kelowna/Victoria/St.Paul's & none other than #DrHenry herself. #bcpoli
4/ This study took place Jan to Apr 2021. An excerpt from its Abstract: "We combined quantitative PCR & WGS to assess relative contribution of VOCs in nearly 67,000 infections during the 1st 16 weeks of 2021 in BC." Wow, that's alot of WGS! Full study here:ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
5/ Emphasizing P.1 rhetoric are quotes from this @PennyDaflos article. While Dr.Romney/study co-author said St.Paul's lab "identified⬆️P.1 than entire U.S. & immune escape is concern, #DrHenry said P.1 mostly in VCH & doubled down on "watching carefully."bc.ctvnews.ca/more-cases-of-…
6/ Just wanted to add an housekeeping item re: ethics stmt. After reading the study several times, all I could find was this at end of "Data Linkages & Analysis" section: "This work was conducted under the PH mandate & institutional review board approval was waived.” #bcpoli
7/ Okay, let's re-visit the Abstract where truth is laid bare when it pinpoints timeframe when P1 started⬆️& exploding in BC: “P.1 accounted for <10% until wk 10, increased rapidly to peak at wk 12, & by wk 13 co-dominated w/i 10% of rates of B.1.1.7."ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
8/ So re:above when P1⬆️to peak & then co-dominate w/B117 btwn Epi-wks 10-13 (Mar7-28) that was Spring Break. Whistler wide open/no mandated travel restrictions. Not until Mar29 did #DrHenry announce 3 wk circuit breaker & Whistler closure re:@CityNewsVAN: vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/03/29/bc-…
9/ Even still, it wasn't until the 15th Epi-week, starting Apr 12th, that all Whistler residents aged 18-54 were offered vaccinations as per this announcement by VCH: #bcpoli vch.ca/about-us/news/…
10/ And these restrictions came well after BCPH officials had been observing the rapid⬆️in P.1 for weeks, with #Covid19 cases at an all time high & culminating to 400 cases in Whistler btwn Apr2nd & Apr8th as per Penny Ballem & reported by @MBernardoNews:
https://twitter.com/MBernardoNews/status/1381392047802707970
11/ At the time, all these dots re:complete lack of transparency about P.1 prevalence, Whistler open for Spring Break & Penny Ballem's admission about the skyrocketing #Covid19 cases there, were all being aptly connected in this thread by @InspiredAquaCA:
https://twitter.com/inspiredaquaca/status/1381350716174782465?s=21&t=1Kqg3L5VOC2q26MiK9hSlg
12/ And thanks to @frozen, here's some on-camera flashbacks w/#DrHenry, incapsulating what was being said about P.1 during this time by BCPH. The operative words are "cluster" & "contained"...until suddenly, P.1 is far too widespread to keep track! #bcpoli
https://twitter.com/frozen/status/1380583672219242496?s=21&t=q8MCkgb21dDouAkPdZjl1w
13/ Anyway, it appears the P.1 in Whistler bolstered findings re: Results:“...when we restricted the analysis to a single smaller geographic unit of region 3 (VCH) in which B.1.1.7 h/b circulating for >8 wks, we observed a rapid⬆️in P.1, after which the 2 lineages coexisted.”
14/ Here's the crux, the study concludes that by 16 wks:“66,982 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified in BC” (this #=BCCDC) & then, “of which 19,768 (31.9%) were identified as infections w/VOC." This is more than triple the 6178 BCCDC VOC total: bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si…
15/ Specifically, by Epi-wk 16 as per study Appendix, these researchers recorded cumulative totals of 11,614 (B.1.1.7), 75 (B.1.351) & 8,079 (P.1.) while only 4,039, 76 & 2,063 were disclosed for B.1.1.7, B.1.351 & P.1 respectively in the above BCCDC Epi-Wk 15 Situation Report.
16/ To further emphasize the disparity of VOC disclosure by BCPH & the MoH versus the actual research data compilation behind the scenes, here are #DrHenry & @adriandix reiterating the BCCDC's final VOC tallies in this Apr20/21 joint statement: #bcpoli news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021H…
17/ So, just to be crystal clear, the final cumulative VOC totals in this study at the end of the Epi-week 16 (April 18th) were 11,614 cases of the B.1.1.7 (almost 3X the BCCDC total) & 8,079 cases of the P.1 (almost 4X the BCCDC total). #bcpoli
18/ Why I'm citing Epi-wk 15 re: BCCDC VOC totals is b/c there's no VOCs in Epi-wk 16 report. Re:@ybrend CBC article spotlighting public outcry for VOC info, #DrHenry: VOCs so prevalent that WGS "will no longer be routinely done."(also study concluded) cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
19/ These study Results reflect what authors knew: “Most VOC case-patients were young adults, median age 33 (range <1 to 99) & sex distribution approx equal...however P.1 case-patients were younger & more likely to be men than case-patients who tested positive for other 2 VOCs.”
20/ All these alarms were being sounded thoroughly wrt the need for continued full-scale WGS to inform about P.1 prevalence due to its seriousness & the communication happening behind the scenes as per this detailed informative thread by @InspiredAquaCA:
https://twitter.com/inspiredaquaca/status/1380037317004390400?s=21&t=EuqeymlUk9S7TY3kbI1pqg
21/ & these BC researchers knew all about Brazil. In fact, this sobering pre-print from Brazil warning about “increased case-fatality rates among younger age groups coinciding w/ this [P.1] lineage” is linked & reviewed in the study “Discussion” section: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
22/ This additional hard-hitting @PennyDaflos piece sums up the shocking disparity btwn #DrHenry's front-facing words to the public wrt the # of VOCs circulating in BC & those being sequenced & compiled at that time for a study she was co-authoring: bc.ctvnews.ca/researchers-be…
23/ One final thing. Who else was involved in this B.C. study? Well, let’s follow the money: “This work was funded “by Genome BC, Genome Cda/CanCOGen, CIHR, MetroVancouver (to N.P) & funded by a PHAC COVID-19 Immunology Task Force COVID-19 Hotspots Competition Grant (to M.G.R).”
24/ So, not only was PHAC aware of BC’s P.1 but it awarded a grant to support the study of it. Instead of pressuring #DrHenry, PHO/study co-author to put out the fire, it looks very much like PHAC gave a green light to go ahead w/surveillance of the “hotspot” fire, as it burned.
25/ In reply to q re:vaccines & P.1, Tam said: "we do not have an actual vaccine effectiveness estimate that is even solidified in terms of evidence & if Cda is seeing evolution of spread of P.1, we might be a country..able to produce some of this data.” bc.ctvnews.ca/it-really-hit-…
26/ &“produce this data" they did. As per “Results” sec: “1,280 breakthrough infections were identified. Among those, 497 (1.7%) cases in persons who had received 1 vax dose were attributed to B.1.1.7 & P.1 lineage strains &18 (0.2%) cases in persons who had received 2 doses.."
27/ To wrap up, thanks to @frozen, here's #DrHenry summarizing the P.1 situation on-camera during GenomeBC's Event last May/21 when she was a guest speaker for "PH Lessons from #Covid19 & Getting Ready for Future Pandemics" topic:
https://twitter.com/frozen/status/1390839547118817280?s=21&t=q8MCkgb21dDouAkPdZjl1w
28/ And if you are also curious wrt what #DrHenry had to say about VOCs and WGS just a month after the P.1 study concluded, here is my transcript from the GenomeBC event & her full answer to this question can be found on page 8: docs.google.com/document/d/1tA…
29/ This concludes my 2nd Segment of BC Research Overview Part 2. If you wish to read it in it's original form, here it is: docs.google.com/document/d/1fz…
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