Thread by @YugoSurfer

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With this thread I want to re-explain in short, why #Russia is making little gains these days in #Ukraine. Especially amidst the steady reporting of the Western #MSM and various Western "intelligence" (propaganda) reports, that Russia's offensive is stalling.

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Of course I explained it in detail in my previous threads, which you can read as well.
See here.
The reason, why I decided to re-write it, is a conversation, that I had recently with some smart Western business and academic partners.

https://twitter.com/YugoSurfer/status/1533484923247546370?s=20&t=2zwb-Meahrb8sRMbFeTx_A

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They are actually smart people, but when it comes down to #Ukraine, they reiterate 1:1 the #MSM content. #Russia is done, Russia will collapse, Russia lost a million men, Russia doesn't gain any ground anymore, etc. etc. etc.
So feel free to share my thread with such people :)

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One of the "number one" goals of #Ukraine, is to hold as much ground as possible, to improve its negotiation position. One might think that I am talking about this position against the #Russia|ns. But that's not the case, there is not much to negotiate with the Russians.

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Why? #Russia will take the whole of #Ukraine under any circumstances and pretexts. Everyone of the involved parties knows this very well. The previous negotiations are designed only for the public opinion of the global south.
What does Ukraine need to negotiate with The West?

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- Supply of further weapons. Therefore it needs to show to the Western Public, "that it is worth it"/"not a lost cause".
- Supply of further financial "support" (bribing) of the #Ukraine|ian elites and for the payment of public services and soldier salaries.

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(so #Ukraine doesn't collapse for as long as it takes)
- Secure for all the elites good positions and extraction guarantees after the war to live in The West somewhere with a nice house at the beach.

What are the goals of The West?
- Bleed #Russia dry (failed)

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- Ruin #Russia economically and financially (failed)
- Coup #Putin away (failed)
- Isolate Russia (failed)
- Weaken Russia's army so it can't fight anyone (defend itself) anymore (failed)
- Provide scorched earth to #Ukraine, so Russia inherits a country, where it will need

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to invest a great deal of its economic potential to rebuild. (The West knows very well, that #Ukraine is going back to #Russia) (This plan will partially succeed)
- Let as many Russians and Ukrainians kill each other (The West hates both as hell), so every Ukrainian family

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has some dead members and the hate against #Russia|ns would last for many decades. (This plan will succeed partially as well)
- Destroy #Ukraine|ian industrial potential (Ukrainian army mostly fights within the valuable industrial complexes, that get always destroyed to a

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great degree)(Russia inherits a broke country) (This plan will most likely also succeed to a great degree)

Having said that, I try to explain now, why #Russia is "advancing" slowly. While #Ukraine needs to hold every inch, to please its foreign handlers, the Russians doesn't

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have this pressure.
#Russia can afford, to literally bleed the #Ukraine|ians dry in areas, that suits them.
If Ukraine considers the defense line of #Severs, #Soledar and #bahmut as essential, to hold the #Donbass and defend #Slaviansk and #Kramatorsk, then this suits Russia

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well.
Why? Those are not very big cities, there are not that many industrial objects and civilians concentrated.
#Ukraine needs to hold the line, to prevent #Donbass to collapse, and therewith Western support. By taking beneficial offensive positions, without moving in,

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the #Russia|ns are able, to destroy one human wave after another, that #Ukraine is throwing into these towns, to defend them. We can think of a massive meat grinder, that works only, to destroy as much human potential as possible from the Ukrainians without risking the own

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soldiers. That's why #Russia is letting them moving in reinforcements into this towns and between them. There will come a time, when #Ukraine isn't able to sustain this anymore physically. Then #Russia will simply move in and repeat this tactic with the next town.

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I recommend the YouTube channel "MilitarySummary". There you can follow the reduction and destruction of all brigades and battalions in this direction every day.
In other words, not moving further is very beneficial for the #Russia|ns. They spare own soldiers, civilians

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and the industrial potential of towns, further West.

Well, the goal is, that #Ukraine simply collapses, after as much human (military/drafted/conscripted etc.) potential was destroyed, that Ukraine isn't physically able to resist anymore. Then #Russia will simply move in

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capture the whole of #Ukraine with some local resistance nests, that will be easily destroyed.

So, just in case you have friends, that are arguing, that #Russia is collapsing, and doesn't gain any ground... The grim truth is, that this strategy will lead, unless #Ukraine

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doesn't collapse earlier, to the death of the biggest part of the able-bodied #Ukraine|ian population. The same fate, that its German predecessors experienced in #ww2. Everyone can decide then, for itself, whether it is a sign of weakness, that #Russia isn't advancing quickly

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or not.

Please share this thread if you like it.

#Russia #Ukraine #Kiev #Donbass #Soledar #Seversk #Kramatorsk #Slaviansk