Reports emerging that #Ukraine, apparently believing itself to be 1960's Israel, and #Russia 1960's Iraq, (not to mention Russian pilots to be Christian Assyrians in Iraq), tried to recruit #Russian pilots to defect with their planes (ie SU-24 / 34). The failed UA intelligence
operation was busted and "flipped" by a successful Russian FSB counter-intelligence operation. The UA intelligence agents were reportedly lured to identify themselves, other trusted sources, and UA anti-aircraft systems details & positions. A defecting pilot for example would
reasonably need to know many such details in order to fly over Ukrainian territory with a reasonable assurance of not being shot down and killed. This was a creative idea, one I could see coming form the likes of #Arestovych or other Ukrainian well read in history, specifically,
Israeli history, as the Mossad famously successfully captured the West's first Mig-21 in 1966 in a similar operation (Operation Diamond). The difference of course is in the quality of execution. This begins by knowing the potential loyalties (& disloyalties) of your foes and
their general mindset and motivations. Ukrainian agents here likely erred badly, since their government's propaganda so incorrectly portrays Russian troops, their loyalties and motivations.
Successful intelligence enemy penetration operations require a very accurate understanding of your foes, not simply repeating lies which do marvelously for CNN and the masses, let alone believing them yourself.

#UkraineRussianWar #Russia #SBU #FSB

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More from @ZimermanErik

Jul 26
The thread being long enough, could not fit all I would have wished. But let me add a last and important point. After the release of this information, we learned of two high level dismissals in the Ukrainian government. #Zelensky fired the First Deputy Secretary of the National
Security and Defense Council Ruslan Demchenko. As part of the Council, which among other tasks coordinates security matters and advises the president, he very well may have been involved in clandestine matters such as this operation. He also worked as deputy minister of foreign
affairs. Perhaps more tellingly Zelensky also fired the commander of Special Operations Forces (SSO), Hryhoriy Halahan. Until 2016 these units were under the Chief Directorate of Intelligence (HUR / GUR), and so are highly correlated with this kind of operation. The SSO includes
Read 14 tweets
Jul 26
Undoubtedly some very interesting developments here. In the immediate aftermath, @bellingcat & its lead #Russia investigator @christogrozev began damage control regarding the announcement. Mr. Grozev claimed that he was not involved in the operation (as RU sources asserted) but
simply had a front-row seat as a film-maker (for a documentary). He also denied that the Ukrainian operation was a failure or a Russian coup. He portrays it as a mutual attempt at playing the other side, in which the UA came out on top and RU FSB blundered & revealed important
information.
(His thread ), calling it a "blunder for the FSB, disclosing unintentionally identities of dozens of counter intel officers, their methods of operation, and their undercover assets.".
Read 37 tweets
Jul 22
Note on a predicted #Ukrainian strategy change. Early on the war, when the public was not accustomed to it, the media got great mileage out of every building that was fired on, assuming all are war crimes. As I discussed in more detail then, people are civilians (or not),
and not buildings. If a defender chooses to defend a city (& an attacker to try to capture it), there will be a fight in the city. Cities are not filled with "designated urban combat buildings", just buildings, and that is where the fighting will take place. Given this reporting
eager to call all events "war crimes" and their intention always "genocide", #Ukraine, whose strategy is always shaped & driven by Western perception, did everything it could to stop civilian evacuations from front line cities. They rationalized that it was the patriotic duty of
Read 19 tweets
Jul 22
This speculative movement, far from the reported fronts seems to finally be in good swing. First discussed it in the quoted tweet (itself quoting a thread about the elusive & unreported forest battles), the last few day of VIIRS data show us a serious #Russian advance to secure
the western forest flank of the #Izium supply line. It is done not as an advance westward from the city, but as a pincer movement from the north & south to advance along the high ground & surround any UA forces still operating within the forest belt. More recently we discussed
these #Ukrainian operations in the forest belt including a river crossing (here ). Also noted that in other threads (such as this one ) that UA would be wise to invest more resources in holding this forest & continuing operations from
Read 20 tweets
Jul 20
Yesterday #Russian sources reported that elements of the #Ukrainian "Kraken" unit infiltrated through the forest belt and attempted an attack on Bilohorivka. This was stopped and some prisoners were taken. Geolocated below. While it is possible that the attack came through the
northern forest belt (meaning UA forces crossed the Donets river twice), and this would be quite a daring mission, it is also possible that these were units that were left in fortified positions in the hilly wooded areas south of Hryrhorivka when the RU forces advanced due west
and attacked took the village (leaving the UA troops in the southern wooded areas). These units could have then advance on Bilohorivka (diagonally) attempting to cut off any remaining troops in Hryhorivka. It is also possible that they simply advanced east from Serebrianka and
Read 25 tweets
Jul 19
We often discuss the all important supply lines, & in the case of #Russia, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies). Given Russia's vast
geography, heavy use of artillery, especially rocket artillery (very supply intensive), limited number of military trucks, and relatively sparse road system the army depends on the railways. From their Imperial Tsarist beginnings, through the Soviet era & up until today, the
Railway Troops have undergone many changes & been part of various ministries. Their modern iteration begins in 1995 when they are established as an independent Federal Service & strengthened. By 1999 they include 4 railway corps, with 28 railway brigades (+ other elements).
Read 18 tweets

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