This is by far the best analysis I have read on the matter. Bottomline is: Russia is too big and a colossal integral part of Europe and EU with all its dysfunctional institutions can‘t hold it together, let alone handle it.
https://twitter.com/NathalieTocci/status/1555536670577016832
„These divisions in the #EU are precisely what #Putin had hoped for. Convinced that #Europe’s liberal democracies are weak and morally corrupt, the #Russian leader has banked on the assumption that the West’s unity on #Ukraine will crumble and could ultimately break in the coming
months. By playing cat and mouse on gas, creating a world food crisis by blockading the export of #Ukrainian grain through the #BlackSea, and pursuing a scorched-earth strategy in Ukraine, Putin may wager that it is just a matter of time until the West, starting with Europe,…
is pulled apart by competing pressures. As #Moscow sees it, liberal democracies have a low pain threshold: they are not capable of playing a long game if it comes at a high social or economic price.“
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