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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 20

NEW | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria. Erdogan said that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance to this end. 🧵 (1/7)

The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River. (2/7)

The SDF deployed forces to clear towns of opposition forces east of Raqqa City on December 19. Local sources reported that opposition forces took control of Madan and five other nearby towns from the SDF. The SDF had seized these areas from the Assad regime on December 6. (3/7)

Read 7 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 20

NEW I Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier when asked to reflect on his 2022 decision to attack. 1/12

Putin insisted that negotiations with Ukraine must be based on the same demands he made before the invasion and at the moment of Russia's greatest territorial gains, despite the fact that Ukraine has secured Kyiv and liberated much of the territory his forces held at that time. 2/12

Putin's insistence on Ukraine's complete surrender reflects his belief that Russia is winning and will outlast Ukrainian and Western resolve. Putin will not likely accept a lesser settlement unless Ukrainian forces inflict other significant battlefield setbacks on Russia and demonstrate to him that he cannot win militarily. 3/12

Read 13 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 20

NEW I Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces. 1/6

Turkey is threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas while also claiming that it will not intervene if HTS addresses the concerns Turkey has about the SDF "properly." 2/6

HTS called for a unitary state without federal regions, which is an implicit demand for the SDF to disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous region. This is consistent with Turkish demands and is the method by which the SDF could avoid a Turkish intervention. 3/6

Read 6 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 19

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4: @Maxar) 🧵⬇️

Russian shipments from Syria to Libya are likely setting conditions for Russia to mitigate or replace its reliance on its Syrian bases by upgrading Russian positions in Libya and securing permission for a Russian naval base on Libya’s Mediterranean coast. 2/8

US officials told @WSJ on December 18 that Russian cargo planes have flown radars for S-400 & S-300 interceptor systems & other air defense equipment to Libya.

Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has asked for air defense systems in negotiations for a Russian naval base in Libya. 3/8

Read 8 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 9

NEW | Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime after only 11 days of fighting. HTS under Julani is beginning to consolidate power in Damascus and across formerly regime-controlled territory. (1/5)

HTS-affiliated forces appear to be taking control of the western bank of the Euphrates River, which the SDF had seized from the Syrian regime. The SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA east of Aleppo City. (2/5)

The IDF deployed units to establish a buffer zone in Syria along the Golan Heights. The IDF also conducted airstrikes targeting ammunition depots and advanced weapons to prevent opposition forces from acquiring those materials. (3/5)

Read 5 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Dec 6

NEW | Opposition forces may continue their rapid advance toward Homs City after capturing Hama City on December 5. Regime forces are likely collapsing as they retreat southwards towards Homs City. (1/8)

The regime does not appear to have established any defensive line between Hama City and the Orontes River. (2/8)

A pro-regime aircraft bombed the Rastan Bridge over the Orontes River, which forms a natural barrier between Hama and Homs, after Opposition forces seized the left, north bank of the Orontes. (3/8)

Read 8 tweets

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