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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Aug 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#Ukrainian officials confirmed that #Russian forces are using #Iranian-provided drones in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces conducted several limited ground assaults to the north, northwest, and southwest of #Donetsk City. Image
#Russian forces continued to focus on preventing #Ukrainian forces from creating conditions to resume a counteroffensive on the #Kharkiv City Axis on August 5. Image
#Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on #Lozove, #Kherson Oblast, likely targeting the #Ukrainian bridgehead over the #Inhulets River. Image
#Russian federal subjects (regions) continued to form regionally-based volunteer battalions. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
May 3
Russian forces are now deployed next to withdrawing US troops in Niamey. This supports CTP's assessment that Russian troops will also backfill the US base in northern Niger, which will create several long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe. 1/9🧵


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The 100-person Russian Africa Corps deployment will immediately enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger & consolidate its logistical network in Africa, but will likely remain small in the coming months due to recruitment issues. 2/9 Image
However, greater Russian influence and military presence in Niger will create long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe through energy blackmail, refugee/migration weaponization, and more conventional threats. 3/9
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Apr 19
CNN reported yesterday that Chad threatened to kick out the handful of US trainers in the country. This mostly symbolic move strongly supports CTP's assessment that Chad may increase cooperation with Russia. This thread discusses Chad's reasons for this potential shift. 1/10🧵
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Malian officials recently claimed that Chad expressed interest in joining the Russia-backed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Chadian junta leader Mahamat Deby has also vowed to improve security & signaled openness to cooperating with Russia as part of his presidential campaign. 2/10
Deby aligning with the AES and Russia would help address the internal pressure he faces to distance himself from the West. Chad has not been immune to the regional increase in anti-French sentiment, which has spurred protests against the roughly 1,000 French troops in Chad. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 7
NEW | Al Qaeda–affiliated militants (JNIM) recently conducted the first suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in southern Mali since 2022, likely to support the group’s efforts to isolate a district capital nearly 175 miles north of the Malian capital. 1/4Image
JNIM has rapidly strengthened in the region surrounding Bamako since the beginning of 2022, increasing the rate, geographic spread, and sophistication of its activity throughout the Koulikoro region. 2/4
JNIM will likely increase the rate and sophistication of its attacks farther south as it attempts to isolate other district capitals and amplify pressure around the Malian capital in the coming years. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 15
NEW | The Wagner Group established control over its first gold mine in Mali and will likely attempt to expand its influence over northern Mali’s artisanal mines to bolster the Kremlin’s sanctions evasion efforts. 1/6Image
Wagner and Malian forces captured the Intahaka mine in the Gao region on February 9. Intahaka is the largest artisanal mine in northern Mali, and various armed groups—including the regional al Qaeda (AQ) and IS affiliates—have controlled and taxed the mine in recent years. 2/6
The Kremlin will likely attempt to expand its influence over northern Mali’s artisanal gold mining in the coming year, as Wagner's expansion in the area to fight separatist rebels in the fourth quarter of 2023 put it closer to hundreds of unregulated artisanal mines. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 6
Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades, is reporting some attacks in the central and southern Gaza Strip only after its fighters return to rear areas.
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The delays in reporting to higher headquarters may indicate a loss of command-and-control over some al Qassem Brigades units engaged with Israeli forces.
The al Qassem Brigades have only conducted three rocket attacks into Israel from the Gaza Strip since December 21, indicating that Israeli operations have severely degraded Hamas’ rocket capability. Image
Read 10 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Dec 20, 2023
NEW | Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.
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Israeli special operations forces operated inside a Hamas tunnel system in Gaza city on December 19.
Palestinian militias are continuing to use the relative safe haven of the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate to attack Israeli forces south of Gaza City.

The IDF deployed an additional brigade to Khan Younis on December 19.
Read 9 tweets

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