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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Aug 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#Ukrainian officials confirmed that #Russian forces are using #Iranian-provided drones in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces conducted several limited ground assaults to the north, northwest, and southwest of #Donetsk City. Image
#Russian forces continued to focus on preventing #Ukrainian forces from creating conditions to resume a counteroffensive on the #Kharkiv City Axis on August 5. Image
#Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on #Lozove, #Kherson Oblast, likely targeting the #Ukrainian bridgehead over the #Inhulets River. Image
#Russian federal subjects (regions) continued to form regionally-based volunteer battalions. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
May 20
Iran threatened to disrupt international commercial shipping if the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear or energy facilities.

Recent instances of GPS interference in the Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian harassment of a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf suggest that Iran may be trying to signal to the U.S. that it can threaten freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf to deter a potential US strike on Iran.Image
Iran may have jammed vessel navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz on May 18 in order to set conditions to seize vessels that inadvertently enter Iranian territorial waters as a result of navigation issues.

Iran previously conducted GPS jamming in 2019 to try to lure vessels into Iranian waters in response to US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure strategy.Image
The GPS disruptions on May 18 come after a possible Iranian vessel recently harassed a commercial vessel in the Persian Gulf on May 10.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a small craft collided with a merchant vessel. The merchant vessel later received Very High Frequency messages from unidentified individuals claiming to be local authorities.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 13
NEW | Iran is preparing for a potential escalation with the United States by positioning military assets on key islands in the Persian Gulf and signaling its intent to target US bases, commercial shipping, and regional allies. Image
Iranian officials continued to categorically reject US demands for zero uranium enrichment, which may stall US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Houthi air defenses appear to have prevented US forces from establishing air supremacy over Yemen, though the Houthis did not create sufficient disruption to prevent US operations.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Apr 3
NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and create opportunities to threaten NATO's southern flank.🧵Image
The three foreign ministers from the AES states traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on April 3 and 4 as part of the first sessions of “AES-Russia consultations.” 2/7
The AES is a strategic project for Russia that advances its goals to supplant Western influence in Africa and assert itself as a revitalized great power.

The AES functions as a pro-Russian economic, military, and political bloc. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Apr 2
Reports of Houthi fighters’ formation of the Nasrallah Battalion in Iraq and Houthi fighters’ integration into PMF units, if accurate, may be consistent with growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months.🧵 Image
Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria after the fall of the Assad regime have formed the “Nasrallah battalion” in Iraq.
The director of the Iraqi Observatory for Rights and Freedom similarly stated on April 1 that the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is integrating Houthi fighters from the Nasrallah Battalion and Houthi drone and missile experts into PMF units in Diyala, Baghdad, and Jurf al Sakhr.

The director is likely referring to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that are part of the PMF.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 24
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia.🧵⬇️🇸🇴Image
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Al Shabaab has escalated attacks around Mogadishu, including an attempt to assassinate the Somali president, and increasingly infiltrated the capital outskirts since the beginning of Ramadan at the end of February. 2/9
The group had not escalated the rate or severity of its attacks in Mogadishu or its southern outskirts as of mid-March.

The brazenness of al Shabaab's activity, however, highlights the group’s infiltration around Mogadishu and the heightened publicization of this activity. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 19
NEW I President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations. 1/6Image
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Trump’s May 2025 nuclear deal deadline would expire one month before the E3’s (Germany, France, and Italy) reported June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the reimposition of snapback sanctions. 2/6
Prior negotiations, including the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have taken much longer and fell well short of the current US goals in negotiations. The JCPOA took 20 months to negotiate. 3/6
Read 7 tweets

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