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Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
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Aug 15 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Heartbreaking to see the Kenyan elections fall apart

Explosive claims being made, including by 4 IEBC commissioners

Interesting that despite making a statement that may rip the country apart they provided no evidence + took no questions

Watch this space

#KenyanElection2022
Sadly all hopes of a consensual process + accepted outcome are now dashed

The question is now whether IEBC will go ahead + announce today

Those watching from outside might be surprised to know that in terms of the digital process of forms 34A + B this was much better than 2017 Image
Chebukati now on stage at Bomas presumably to announce the result.

Security forces seem to have done their job by returning order to Bomas.

For those asking, I believe the Chair can legally announce even if some commissioners disagree. Image
For those who would like to see claims of electing rigging fact checked, please take a look here:

democracyinafrica.org/fact-checking-…
William Ruto has been declared the winner of the Kenyan presidential election with 50.49%.

He wins outright in the first round.

Expect a lot of controversy. Expect a court case. Expect this to run and run …

#kenyaelections2022
#KenyaDecides2022

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More from @Fromagehomme

Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Aug 17
Having fact checked + challenged some election rigging accusations, it is worth making it clear that the election was not perfect

There are areas where @IEBCKenya will want to perform better next time + make for reasonable criticism

Here are a few:

🧵1/5

#KenyanElection2022 Image
1. There was inconsistent use of the manual register in some areas. This seems to have been because court decisions changed the process twice *after* the IEBC completed training, so maybe not IEBC's "fault", but it is nonetheless an inconsistency

citizen.digital/news/court-of-…
2. The IEBC did a much much better job with the digital scans of forms 34A and forms 34B than in 2017, which is great, but it is still the case that the portal is missing 28 forms 34A (though, as of now, is not missing any forms 34B).

This is an area for further improvement. ImageImage
Read 22 tweets
Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Aug 16
Serena 4 presser now on

Started very badly for their credibility

Claim a big problem is that the results stated added to 100.1% which is “mathematically impossible”

It’s not impossible it’s the product of rounding the numbers …

#KenyanElection2022
#KenyaDecides2022 Image
Proceeds to suggest there are 142,000 votes not counted.

Again, there is a basic misunderstanding of mathematics.

There are no 142,000. The 100.1% is due to rounding the numbers.

These claims could not be weaker so far.

#KenyanElection2022
#KenyaDecides2022 Image
Also rather surprised Azimio have scheduled this - and screened the Serena presser at their own event - to make it clear they are coordinating with the Serena 4

Very bad optics, especially given the timing of the Serena 4 statement and the Azimio wall out from Bomas Image
Read 5 tweets
Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Nov 3, 2020
On Kenya BBI & the gender quota. Am I missing something or does it fail to *guarantee* that no more than two-thirds of Parliament will be of the same gender? I have read the proposals & it is not clear to me that it does 1/5 @MitullahWinnie @karutikk @gathara @Nanjala1 #BBIReport
BBI mandates parties to have 30% women on their candidate lists. But this doesn’t ensure they win - if they contest against other male candidates many may lose. Only 27 women in the current parliament did not come through the reserved county seats. 2/5 @kopalo #BBIReport
That means that securing the threshold will likely depend on the 70 seats to be appointed by the parties on the basis of their vote share. But reports suggest only 35 of these have to go to women. That’s a *loss* of 12 compared to the 47 county women’s representatives. #bbi 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Nov 3, 2020
The world holds its breath as voters go to the polls in a deeply divided country. Political violence seems more likely than not due to pronounced ethnic divisions and irresponsible leadership. #ElectionDay #Election2020 #thread 1/5 google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…
Despite growing fears of electoral manipulation and conflict, international observers have been denied access to some parts of the country, exacerbating fears that the president will refuse to leave office if he loses power. 2/5 #USAElections2020 google.co.uk/amp/s/theconve…
Much will depend on the electoral system, which is disorganised and controversial - & is likely to lead to contradictory claims about who has won early on Election Day, further radicalIsing & polarising a fractious and distrustful society. 3/5 #ElectionDay google.co.uk/amp/s/globalne…
Read 6 tweets
Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Jun 10, 2020
To all those saying that slavery happened a long time ago, that it didn't benefit them directly, and that they not racists so why should they care - THIS is why you should care. #thread #slavery #blacklivesmatter #ukprotests #bristolstatue #RhodesMustFall 1/4
You may think that you don't personally benefit from slavery, but you almost certainly do. Many of you may be surprised to find your ancestors + people with your name in this database - like Thomas J. Cheeseman a British slave over. Check it out here: 2/4 ucl.ac.uk/lbs/project/de…
Even if you don't find your own name in the database, you live in a county whose infrastructure and economy benefitted massively from slavery and other immoral acts, and those benefits created advantages - in education, business, healthcare - enjoyed by subsequent generations 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Nic Cheeseman Profile picture
Mar 26, 2020
The impact of #COVID19 on democracy, a #thread. There is a lot of discussion of this but some is a bit simplistic. We need to distinguish different mechanisms through which this works. I can see at least three. (Anyway wants me this up just DM me) 1 #COVID2019 #protectdemocracy
The most obvious mechanism is that authoritarian leaders use #COVID19 to ban rallies and protests, and in some cases cancel elections, eg by declaring states of emergency. We might call this the covid *sleight of hand*, which is used by authoritarian regimes in trouble 2
A less obvious mechanism is that authoritarian leaders simply do more oh what they have always been doing in the knowledge that no one is paying attention. In other words for these leaders #COVID2019 represents a good period to bury bad news. These are *corona opportunists* 3
Read 6 tweets

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