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Aug 18 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian forces are likely preparing to defend their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the #Melitopol-Tokmak-Berdyansk triangle by mining settlements on the eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast frontline. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug… Image
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully conducted a platoon-size assault and a reconnaissance-in-force operation near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the #Inhulets River. /2
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian strongholds and ammunition warehouses in northwestern and northern #Kherson Oblast on August 17. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Ukrainian officials also reported that partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack near one of the Russian military occupation administration commandant offices in #Melitopol. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Aug 20
NEW: Recent #Ukrainian strikes on #Russian military and transportation infrastructure in #Crimea and #Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas. Read the latest: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug… ImageImageImageImage
Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes in #Crimea are affecting the Russian information space despite the fact that these reports were likely overblown. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Available open-source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces did not conduct a successful kinetic attack against either the Stary Oskol Air Base in Belgorod or Belbek Air Base in #Crimea on August 18. There is no visual evidence of damage to either air base of as August 19. /3
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 19
New: There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in #Ukraine today for the first time since July 6.

Russian officials may be setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug… ImageImageImageImage
Meanwhile, Russian sources reported explosions across #Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air defenses, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack.

More in tonight's report w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
It is unclear at the time of publication whether the reported explosions in #Crimea are due to #Ukrainian attacks or reconnaissance, poor Russian handling of military equipment, successful #Russian air defenses...
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 18
Russian leadership and the Russian nationalist information space are falsely framing recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military assets in #Crimea as acts of terrorism to shift the information narrative away from Russian violations of international law. 🧵isw.pub/RusCampaignAug… Image
#Russian sources on August 17 inaccurately described the recent #Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, an ammunition depot, and the #Saki Airbase in Russian-occupied #Crimea as acts of terrorism. /2
The Russian-appointed head of occupied #Crimea claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Crimea had neutralized cells of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization & accused the Ukrainian government of coordinating Hizb ut-Tahrir's operations without providing evidence. /3
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 17
New: Attacks on #Russian positions in and around #Crimea are likely part of a coherent #Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the #Dnipro River.

Read tonight's full report w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at an airfield and a critical Russian supply nexus in #Crimea on August 16, specifically a Russian ammunition depot and a transformer substation in Dzhankoiskyi District and an airfield near Hvardiiske, Crimea. /2
#Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) from #Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland #Ukraine including those in western #Kherson Oblast. /3
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 15
.@TheStudyofWar assessed yesterday that #Russian and proxy troops in #Ukraine are operating in roughly six force groupings. We take a closer look at their likely composition in the following🧵
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
Group 1: Kharkiv City and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast

Russian force composition around Kharkiv City is at least in part composed of Western Military District (WMD) units. /2
The Ukrainian General Staff has identified that Russian forces concentrated WMD units around Kharkiv City and in border areas of Russia’s Kursk and Bryansk Oblasts (northeast of the city). /3
Read 11 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Aug 15
NEW: #Russian and proxy troops in #Ukraine are likely operating in 6 force groupings oriented on Kharkiv City & NE Kharkiv Oblast; along the Izyum-Slovyansk line; the Siversk-Lysychansk area; Bakhmut; the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area; and Southern Ukraine.
isw.pub/RusCampaignAug…
The #Kharkiv City and #Siversk-Lysychansk groups are likely built around cores drawn from the Western and Central Military Districts respectively. The #Izyum-#Slovyansk axis is increasingly manned by recently formed volunteer battalions that likely have very low combat power. /2
#Wagner Group private military company (PMC) soldiers are in the lead around #Bakhmut, while forces drawn from the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) predominate in the #Avdiivka-#Donetsk City area. /3
Read 8 tweets

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