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jeroen blokland Profile picture
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Aug 23 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Yikes! The US Composite #PMI just fell to 45.0! That is near #recession levels. The Services PMI is down to 44.1, where an increase to 49.8 was expected.
And the key cause was 'lack of demand!'
This does not match market expectations for company #earnings, with or without #energy stocks. If you love the chart, wait until you see what we do with it regarding trading ideas.

linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

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More from @jsblokland

jeroen blokland Profile picture
Aug 21
Economists ALWAYS believe #inflation will quickly fall to 2%.

Forecasting inflation is incredibly hard!

It is impacted by demographics, supply chains, productivity, war, monetary policy, globalization, and luck

Too many factors to correctly ‘model.’

chart via @biancoresearch Image
An earlier note to our clients showed that since 1950 there were just two major moves in #inflation: one up from 1955 until 1980, and one down from 1980 until last year. Before that, inflation was all over the place and more often negative. The last 70 years may be the outlier. Image
Maybe we don't understand #inflation after all.
true-insights.net/maybe-we-dont-…
Read 4 tweets
jeroen blokland Profile picture
Aug 16
Valuation thread 1/7

The S&P 500 Index is up 18% from the low in mid June.
Valuation thread 2/7

#Earnings-per-share are up less than 2% since then and guidance has become significantly more cautious.
Valuation thread 3/7

As a result, the realized PE ratio of the S&P 500 Index has increased to a lofty 21. The forward PE has risen to 19.
Read 8 tweets
jeroen blokland Profile picture
Jan 28
It has always been a bit of a puzzle to me why everything in #bitcoin is so extreme. Perhaps it is partly because it’s characteristics as an asset class are pretty extreme. Yet, that does not mean it cannot add value to a well-diversified portfolio. 1/7
In fact, that is exactly what #bitcoin has done since it was created, but also during more recent periods. By allocating a modest portion of your #portfolio to bitcoin, you would have increased portfolio return, without adding #volatility. 2/7
Like for any asset class, it’s possible to derive future returns for #bitcoin. For example by using the market cap of investable #gold, or the value of the insurance policy against fiat currency debasement. You can look and mining costs, network effects, and so on. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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