It's alarming to see the Dutch government doing absolutely nothing to get the #Groningen #NaturalGas field going again.
A thread
1/6 To be clear, the Dutch government made a big mistake by closing it down in the first place.

And now it has become impossible to move people even if it would come up with ‘an offer you can't resist.’

Understandable if people say ‘no.’
2/6

Mortgage rates are screaming lower house prices ahead! 1/5

You asked, we answered. In a follow-up on the chart below, which understandably raises a few questions, we took an in-depth look at current US house prices vs. mortgage rates. In addition to comparing annual nominal house price levels and mortgage rates since 1986, we also looked at:
- nominal MONTHLY data
- REAL monthly data
- both since 1971 (which includes a period of rising interest rates)
- other factors that forecast US house prices.

2/5

The #federalreserve pivot dream continues! 1/4

US year-on-year producer price #inflation came in significantly below expectations in October.

On a monthly basis, core #PPI did not rise at all. The #federalreserve pivot dream continues! 2/4

The producer price #inflation 'surprise' is less of a surprise if you take #China's #PPI into account.

Chinese producer prices are down(!) from a year ago!
And the correlation with US producer prices is high.

On the #FederalReserve hawkish pivot 1/n

It's about the destination now
Forget the speed of rate hikes
Focus on the terminal rate and
how long the Fed must stay there

= how much cumulative pain is needed to crush #inflation 1/n
Powell: 'If we were to overtighten, we could use our tools to support the economy later on.'

Or in other words, we are willing to risk a #recession to get the 'job done' and push #inflation to target.

#Duration works both ways!
#Austria's '100-year' bond, maturing in 2120, with a duration of 46 years, is down a whopping 72% since late 2020 when global yields bottomed.
short thread 1/9 This also answers the many questions about why the value of (UK) #liability-driven investment funds, used by pension funds to match the #duration of their #liabilities, has plummeted. 2/9

Economists ALWAYS believe #inflation will quickly fall to 2%.

Forecasting inflation is incredibly hard!

It is impacted by demographics, supply chains, productivity, war, monetary policy, globalization, and luck

Too many factors to correctly ‘model.’

chart via @biancoresearch An earlier note to our clients showed that since 1950 there were just two major moves in #inflation: one up from 1955 until 1980, and one down from 1980 until last year. Before that, inflation was all over the place and more often negative. The last 70 years may be the outlier.

Valuation thread 1/7

The S&P 500 Index is up 18% from the low in mid June. Valuation thread 2/7

#Earnings-per-share are up less than 2% since then and guidance has become significantly more cautious.

It has always been a bit of a puzzle to me why everything in #bitcoin is so extreme. Perhaps it is partly because it’s characteristics as an asset class are pretty extreme. Yet, that does not mean it cannot add value to a well-diversified portfolio. 1/7 In fact, that is exactly what #bitcoin has done since it was created, but also during more recent periods. By allocating a modest portion of your #portfolio to bitcoin, you would have increased portfolio return, without adding #volatility. 2/7