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Aug 24 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
"From 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 21 August 2022, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 13,477 civilian casualties in the country: 5,587 killed and 7,890 injured." 1/ ohchr.org/en/news/2022/0…
"OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol..." #Ukraine 2/
My research-based estimate is about 8-10 thousand civilians killed in #Ukraine during #UkraineRussia war, about 70-80% in #Donbas. Estimate is based on UN confirmed 5,587 casualties plus unaccounted casualties in Mariupol & other Donbas based on 3 thousand graves in #Mariupol. 3/
June 11: "Roughly 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the Russian invasion began in late February, a military adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said." He said that “200 to 300 die, no less” daily." 4/ washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/…
"At the beginning of June, you shocked the public when you announced the figures of the losses of the Armed Forces, 100 to 200 people who die every day.
Podolyak: I think that the numbers decreased by 2.5-3 times. I think there are about 30-50 people." 5/
bbc.com/ukrainian/feat…
#Ukrainian combat casualties are circa 15-20 thousand killed based on June 11 admission of about 10,000 soldiers killed, plus casualties of police, border guards, National Guard & foreign volunteers, casualties since based on admissions of their daily rates, & MIA but killed. 6/
BBC counts 5,701 individual #Russian military, National Guard, FSB, etc members killed during #Ukraine️war. Along with Wagner group, killed MIA & BBC estimate that it can be half of casualties, Russian combat casualties can range 6-12 thousand killed. 7/ bbc.com/russian/featur…
Ombudsperson of separatist DNR reports 2,780 killed DNR military, police etc members. Based on population such number corresponds to 1,700 killed in separatist LNR. Along with killed MIA, total combat casualties in separatist #Donbas are circa 5 thousand. ombudsman-dnr.ru/obzor-soczialn…

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 25
"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who arrived in Kyiv, said that holding peace talks between Ukraine and Russia now would be a disaster for the whole world." #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia 1/ strana.news/news/404783-dz…
Boris Johnson: “There is a certain logic in the position in which we find ourselves, because now there are no negotiations, there are no proposals. And even if there were such a proposal, I don’t see under what circumstances the Ukrainians would agree to these negotiations." 2/
""Considering aggression, tyranny that is happening in Ukraine, such negotiations would be a disaster for the whole world," Johnson said."

His 3d sudden visit to #Ukraine & his statement suggest that he came to tell again #Zelenskyy not negotiate peace deal with #Russia. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 22
My @LeDevoir interview: "Ivan Katchanovski, ... a long-time specialist in Ukraine's conflicts, says the current situation is very dangerous for the future of the country. "This is the most dangerous situation for Ukraine since its independence..." 1/ ledevoir.com/monde/europe/7…
@LeDevoir My @LeDevoir interview: "and even before," he said, recalling that it was done peacefully. The expert does not believe that Ukraine will lose its independence, but he believes that the impacts of the war are devastating and he is pessimistic about the future of the country." 2/
“Large parts of Ukraine will be occupied and annexed. And the chances that Ukraine will be able to dislodge the Russian forces are very small,” thinks Ivan Katchanovski... “There is rallying around the Ukrainian flag and resistance against the invader." #UkraineRussiaWar 3/
Read 5 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 21
Admission of responsibility for the assassination of #Dugin daughter and declaration of intentions to conduct other such assassinations in #Russia signify escalation of the conflict.
Ex-opposition member of Russian parliament, who lives in exile in #Ukraine, relays admission by "National Republican Army" of assassination of #Dugin daughter in revenge for killing of POWs from Neo-Nazi-led Azov in separatist prison in #Donbas & plan to assassinate both of them
Ex-member of Russian parliament in exile in #Ukraine states his support for NRA that admitted assassination of #Dugin daughter. He admits links to NRA & to group of Russian neo-Nazis, who were reportedly linked to neo-Nazi-led Azov & were recently killed in Volgograd in #Russia.
Read 10 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 19
In July, "Europe’s six largest countries offered Ukraine no new bilateral military commitments, according to new data. The fresh data, covering the U.K., France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland ... comes from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy." politico.eu/article/data-s…
"US to ship $775 million aid package of arms, drones to Ukraine, official says: Live updates."
#UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar #UkraineWar usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 19
Ukrainian intelligence corroborates my research findings that initial goal of #Russian invasion of #Ukraine was regime change, in particular, installing Yanukovych as leader. He was removed from power in 2014 as result of Western-backed violent overthrow. washingtonpost.com/world/interact…
"As part of that plan, Ukrainian officials said, the FSB had lined up at least two pro-Russian governments-in-waiting— not just one as the British government had warned. One, positioned in Belarus, centered on Yanukovych."
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Aug 17
"United States has tied its own reputation to the outcome of the conflict... It hard to imagine Washington backing down; if Russia prevailed in Ukraine, the United States’ position in the world would suffer a serious blow." #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukrainewar 1/ foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playin…
"Over the course of the war Russia has captured large swaths of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and there is growing evidence that Putin now intends to annex all or most of that land, which would effectively turn what is left of Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state"
"Ukraine, for its part, has the same goals as the Biden administration. The Ukrainians are bent on recapturing territory lost to Russia—including Crimea—and a weaker Russia is certainly less threatening to Ukraine. Furthermore, they are confident that they can win" #UkraineWar 3/
Read 6 tweets

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