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TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
@TrumpsTaxes
Aug 24, 2022 • 31 tweets • 32 min read • Read on X
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🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Race: #CA27

Democrat: Christy Smith (@ChristySmithCA)

Republican: Rep. Mike Garcia

2020 Margin: Biden +12.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we… ImageImage
Race: #IL13

Democrat: Nikki Budzinski (@Nikki4Congress)

Republican: Regan Deering

2020 Margin: Biden +11.3

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/nikkifo… ImageImage
Race: #OH01

Democrat: Greg Landsman (@VoteLandsman)

Republican: Rep. Steve Chabot

2020 Margin: Biden +8.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/landsma… ImageImage
Race: #MI03

Democrat: Hillary Scholten (@HillaryScholten)

Republican: John Gibbs

2020 Margin: Biden +8.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/sch_web… ImageImage
Race: #NY22

Democrat: Francis Conole (@FDConole)

Republican: Brandon Williams

2020 Margin: Biden +7.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/fc-webs… ImageImage
Race: #NE02

Democrat: Tony Vargas (@TonyVargas)

Republican: Rep. Don Bacon

2020 Margin: Biden +6.4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/tvargas… ImageImage
Race: #CA45

Democrat: Jay Chen (@jfchen)

Republican: Rep. Michelle Steel

2020 Margin: Biden +6.3

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/jfc-web… ImageImage
Race: #NM02

Democrat: Gabriel Vasquez (@Gabe_NM)

Republican: Rep. Yvette Herrell

2020 Margin: Biden +5.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vas-web… ImageImage
Race: #PA01

Democrat: Ashley Ehasz (@ashely_ehasz)

Republican: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick

2020 Margin: Biden +4.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/ehasz-w… ImageImage
Race: #CA40

Democrat: Dr. Asif Mahmood (@DrMahmood40)

Republican: Rep. Young Kim

2020 Margin: Biden +2

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/dram-we… ImageImage
Race: #NC13

Democrat: Wiley Nickel (@wileynickel)

Republican: Bo Hines

2020 Margin: Biden +1.8

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2200-wn… ImageImage
Race: #AZ01

Democrat: Jevin Hodge (@JevinHodge)

Republican: Rep. David Schweikert

2020 Margin: Biden +1.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/blu-hod… ImageImage
Race: #AZ06

Democrat: Kirsten Engel (@EngelForArizona)

Republican: Juan Ciscomani

2020 Margin: Biden +.3

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/engel-f… ImageImage
Race: #NY01

Democrat: Bridget Fleming (@bridgetmfleming)

Republican: Nicholas LaLota

2020 Margin: EVEN

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/bridget… ImageImage
Race: #FL27

Democrat: Annette Taddeo (@Annette_Taddeo)

Republican: Rep. Maria Salazar

2020 Margin: Trump +.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/tad_web… ImageImage
Race: #MI10

Democrat: Carl Marlinga (@MarlingaForMI10)

Republican: John James

2020 Margin: Trump +.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/marling… ImageImage
Race: #CA41

Democrat: Will Rollins (@WillRollinsCA)

Republican: Rep. Kevin Calvert

2020 Margin: Trump +1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/rollins… ImageImage
Race: #NY02

Democrat: Jackie Gordon (@VoteJackie4NY)

Republican: Rep. Andrew Garbarino

2020 Margin: Trump +1.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/gordonw… ImageImage
Race: #CA03

Democrat: Dr. Kermit Jones (@DrKermitJones)

Republican: Rep. Kevin Kiley

2020 Margin: Trump +1.9

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/kj_web?… ImageImage
Race: #WI01

Democrat: Ann Roe (@AnnRoe4Congress)

Republican: Rep. Bryan Steil

2020 Margin: Trump +2.4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/annroe?… ImageImage
Race: #IA01

Democrat: Christina Bohannan (@BohannanIowa)

Republican: Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks

2020 Margin: Trump +2.9

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/bohanna… ImageImage
Race: #MI04

Democrat: Joseph Alfonso (@AlfonsoforMI4)

Republican: Rep. Bill Huizenga

2020 Margin: Trump +4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/alfonso… ImageImage
Race: #VA01

Democrat: Herb Jones (@herb4virginia)

Republican: Rep. Robert Wittman

2020 Margin: Trump +4.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/hj_soci… ImageImage
Race: #PA10

Democrat: Shamaine Daniels (@ShamaineDaniels)

Republican: Rep. Scott Perry

2020 Margin: Trump +4.2

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/daniels… ImageImage
Race: #WA03

Democrat: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (@MGPforCongress)

Republican: Joe Kent

2020 Margin: Trump +4.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/mgp?ref… ImageImage
Race: #IA02

Democrat: Liz Mathis (@LizMathis1)

Republican: Rep. Ashley Hinson

2020 Margin: Trump +4.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/liz-mat… ImageImage
Race: #NJ02

Democrat: Tim Alexander

Republican: Rep. Jeff Van Drew

2020 Margin: Trump +5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/ta-soc?… ImageImage
Race: #CO08

Democrat: Dr. Yadira Caraveo (@YadiraCaraveo)

Republican: Barbara Kirkmeyer

2020 Margin: Biden +4.7

Bonus! Technically not a flip as it's a new district, but we still need to win it!

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/yc-soc?… ImageImage

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More from @TrumpsTaxes

TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Apr 29
Time for a tutorial in right-wing media propaganda.

I came across this local print edition of the Epoch Times delivered to the mailbox of someone I know.

It has the look and feel of a standard local paper, w/ a front page featuring local stories.

But let’s look closer… Image
First let’s zoom in on the top of the front page.

The paper slyly promotes the Epoch Times video website featuring a documentary about “The Real Story of January 6” and a story about “Unusual Blood-clotting” (anti-vax conspiracy theories).

But that’s just the start… Image
Remember that Page 1 lures in the reader with the promise of local news coverage, with a small-print hint about the paper’s true intent.

But Page 2 is dives in with snippets and quotes and brief items that have a distinct conservative theme. Image
Read 12 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Mar 12
We’ve now had *2* major accusations against Biden that have been refuted:

1. Robert Hur’s accusation about Biden’s cognition, which was belied by his own words in the transcript.

2. The GOP’s accusation of Biden taking bribes, which fell apart when their witness was indicted.
Republicans have relied heavily on both of these false narratives, and both have crumbled away.

Impeachment is going nowhere and Biden’s SOTU killed their ‘Sleepy Joe’ approach.

That’s a big problem for the GOP.

Why? Two reasons.
1. Now the GOP needS to formulate new lines of attack. It wont be easy.

2. Those two false Biden narratives were supposed ‘cancel out’ the *accurate* liabilities for Trump: his obvious cognitive decline and his blatant corruption. That strategy is gone now.
Read 4 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Feb 21
I really encourage everyone to read this conversation with @SimonWDC (posted by @atrupar without a paywall; thank you Aaron!).

There are some great electoral and political insights that cut through many of the BS media narratives that we are being fed.
publicnotice.co/p/simon-rosenb…
I love this part.

Many of us are still so traumatized by 2016 that we've created this mythology around Trump and his abilities.

But the data points to 2016 having been - dare I say - a fluke.

Don't get me wrong, a fluke could happen again.

But not if we put in the hard work. Image
I see this trauma every day in my conversations with like-minded friends and family.

I see the anxiety, I see the fear, I see the pessimism.

It's as though they are stuck in '16, and the subsequent seven years of elections never happened.

It's a mindset we have to break.
Read 4 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Feb 9
Yesterday was a test.

Some passed. Others failed.

And there are many lessons to be learned.

A thread on Hur, Biden, the Special Counsel report, and those who reported on it.

⬇️⬇️⬇️
Yesterday’s biggest failure easily belongs to the media.

They gullibly reported Robert Hur’s blatantly partisan opinions as though they were facts of the case.

Hur played the media like a fiddle, and they danced along to the beat.
Any news outlet with even a hint of experience with the subject matter should have known that Hur’s biased editorializing was as unprofessional as it was irregular, and reported it through that prism.

But they didn’t.
Read 10 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Feb 8
Quick story/thread:

Today I remembered that I have an old-coworker/friend who lives in #NY03.

So naturally I texted her to find out whether she was going to vote early (or at all), what she's seeing on the ground, etc.

Couple of interesting tidbits...
First, my friend is a registered Independent who pretty consistently votes blue. Her husband is also an independent, but I'm not sure how he votes.

Anyhow, she's been getting Suozzi people knocking on her door one a week and 3 fliers a day, also for Suozzi.

She's in Nassau btw.
Of note: Despite being an Ind, NO ONE from Mazi Pilip's camp has knocked on her door.

She hasn't voted early yet, but will try to this weekend with family.

I told her - per @SimonWDC's Vote on Day 1 Rule - the sooner she votes early, the sooner the doorknocking will stop lol. Image
Read 5 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Dec 15, 2023
🎉TOP 10 ELECTION WIN COUNTDOWN OF 2023🎉

I’ll take actual election results over pointless polls any day.

So instead of fretting, let’s take a moment to celebrate our big electoral wins this year.

We’ve earned it!
10. Virginia State Senate Special Election

This January 2023 Special Election - which saw Democrat Aaron Rouse flip a red seat blue - foreshadowed what was to come in November:

A good night for VA Democrats and a bad night for VA Republicans. Image
9. Jacksonville Mayor

Florida has been a major downer for Democrats the last few years, so seeing Democrat Donna Deegan flip the Jacksonville Mayor’s office was a sorely needed, morale-boosting victory. Image
Read 10 tweets

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