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TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
@TrumpsTaxes
Aug 24, 2022 • 31 tweets • 32 min read • Read on X
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🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Race: #CA27

Democrat: Christy Smith (@ChristySmithCA)

Republican: Rep. Mike Garcia

2020 Margin: Biden +12.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we… ImageImage
Race: #IL13

Democrat: Nikki Budzinski (@Nikki4Congress)

Republican: Regan Deering

2020 Margin: Biden +11.3

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/nikkifo… ImageImage
Race: #OH01

Democrat: Greg Landsman (@VoteLandsman)

Republican: Rep. Steve Chabot

2020 Margin: Biden +8.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/landsma… ImageImage
Race: #MI03

Democrat: Hillary Scholten (@HillaryScholten)

Republican: John Gibbs

2020 Margin: Biden +8.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/sch_web… ImageImage
Race: #NY22

Democrat: Francis Conole (@FDConole)

Republican: Brandon Williams

2020 Margin: Biden +7.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/fc-webs… ImageImage
Race: #NE02

Democrat: Tony Vargas (@TonyVargas)

Republican: Rep. Don Bacon

2020 Margin: Biden +6.4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/tvargas… ImageImage
Race: #CA45

Democrat: Jay Chen (@jfchen)

Republican: Rep. Michelle Steel

2020 Margin: Biden +6.3

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/jfc-web… ImageImage
Race: #NM02

Democrat: Gabriel Vasquez (@Gabe_NM)

Republican: Rep. Yvette Herrell

2020 Margin: Biden +5.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vas-web… ImageImage
Race: #PA01

Democrat: Ashley Ehasz (@ashely_ehasz)

Republican: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick

2020 Margin: Biden +4.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/ehasz-w… ImageImage
Race: #CA40

Democrat: Dr. Asif Mahmood (@DrMahmood40)

Republican: Rep. Young Kim

2020 Margin: Biden +2

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/dram-we… ImageImage
Race: #NC13

Democrat: Wiley Nickel (@wileynickel)

Republican: Bo Hines

2020 Margin: Biden +1.8

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/2200-wn… ImageImage
Race: #AZ01

Democrat: Jevin Hodge (@JevinHodge)

Republican: Rep. David Schweikert

2020 Margin: Biden +1.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/blu-hod… ImageImage
Race: #AZ06

Democrat: Kirsten Engel (@EngelForArizona)

Republican: Juan Ciscomani

2020 Margin: Biden +.3

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/engel-f… ImageImage
Race: #NY01

Democrat: Bridget Fleming (@bridgetmfleming)

Republican: Nicholas LaLota

2020 Margin: EVEN

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/bridget… ImageImage
Race: #FL27

Democrat: Annette Taddeo (@Annette_Taddeo)

Republican: Rep. Maria Salazar

2020 Margin: Trump +.6

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/tad_web… ImageImage
Race: #MI10

Democrat: Carl Marlinga (@MarlingaForMI10)

Republican: John James

2020 Margin: Trump +.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/marling… ImageImage
Race: #CA41

Democrat: Will Rollins (@WillRollinsCA)

Republican: Rep. Kevin Calvert

2020 Margin: Trump +1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/rollins… ImageImage
Race: #NY02

Democrat: Jackie Gordon (@VoteJackie4NY)

Republican: Rep. Andrew Garbarino

2020 Margin: Trump +1.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/gordonw… ImageImage
Race: #CA03

Democrat: Dr. Kermit Jones (@DrKermitJones)

Republican: Rep. Kevin Kiley

2020 Margin: Trump +1.9

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/kj_web?… ImageImage
Race: #WI01

Democrat: Ann Roe (@AnnRoe4Congress)

Republican: Rep. Bryan Steil

2020 Margin: Trump +2.4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/annroe?… ImageImage
Race: #IA01

Democrat: Christina Bohannan (@BohannanIowa)

Republican: Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks

2020 Margin: Trump +2.9

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/bohanna… ImageImage
Race: #MI04

Democrat: Joseph Alfonso (@AlfonsoforMI4)

Republican: Rep. Bill Huizenga

2020 Margin: Trump +4

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/alfonso… ImageImage
Race: #VA01

Democrat: Herb Jones (@herb4virginia)

Republican: Rep. Robert Wittman

2020 Margin: Trump +4.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/hj_soci… ImageImage
Race: #PA10

Democrat: Shamaine Daniels (@ShamaineDaniels)

Republican: Rep. Scott Perry

2020 Margin: Trump +4.2

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/daniels… ImageImage
Race: #WA03

Democrat: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (@MGPforCongress)

Republican: Joe Kent

2020 Margin: Trump +4.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/mgp?ref… ImageImage
Race: #IA02

Democrat: Liz Mathis (@LizMathis1)

Republican: Rep. Ashley Hinson

2020 Margin: Trump +4.5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/liz-mat… ImageImage
Race: #NJ02

Democrat: Tim Alexander

Republican: Rep. Jeff Van Drew

2020 Margin: Trump +5

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/ta-soc?… ImageImage
Race: #CO08

Democrat: Dr. Yadira Caraveo (@YadiraCaraveo)

Republican: Barbara Kirkmeyer

2020 Margin: Biden +4.7

Bonus! Technically not a flip as it's a new district, but we still need to win it!

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/yc-soc?… ImageImage

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More from @TrumpsTaxes

TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Aug 14
🚨THE TOP 10 SENATE RACES OF 2024🚨

The Senate map is brutal for us this year.

Ds currently sit at 51-49 with a guaranteed loss in WV.

So the strategy of keeping our majority runs through a flawless defense of every other D seat, and hopefully flipping two tough GOP seats. Image
Race: Montana (#MTSen)

Democrat: Jon Tester (@jontester)

Flip/Hold: Hold

Facts: If Tester can put together a coalition (Ds, Rs, Is, Indigenous, environmentalists), he can win against his scandal-plagued opponent. Our toughest race this year.

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/rjt-web…
@jontester Race: Ohio Senate (#OHSen)

Democrat: Sherrod Brown (@SherrodBrown)

Flip/Hold: Hold

Facts: Another tough race, but Sherrod has been blessed with a weak opponent (a familiar theme this year), and with our help he'll have what it takes to win.

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/sbhomep…
Read 11 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Aug 12
🚨NORTH CAROLINA EXTREME GOP STATEWIDE CANDIDATE THREAD🚨

I can’t think of any state that has a statewide Republican ticket as weird and dangerous as North Carolina.

And Democrats have the chance to defeat them all.

Let’s review.
newsobserver.com/opinion/articl…
Republican - Mark Robinson

Election - Governor (#NCGov)

Democratic opponent - Josh Stein (@JoshStein_)

Robinson is a Holocaust-denying, Hitler-quoting, LGBTQ-hating bigot who says that “some people need to be killed” and doesn’t want women to vote.

vanityfair.com/news/mark-robi…
@JoshStein_ Republican - Dan Bishop

Election - Attorney General (#NCAG)

Democratic opponent - Jeff Jackson (@JeffJacksonNC)

Bishop designed NC’s anti-LGBTQ ‘bathroom bill’, which cost NC $3.7B in revenue, and he donated to Gab, a white supremacist social network.

charlotteobserver.com/opinion/editor…
Read 12 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Aug 6
🚨PENNSYLVANIA STATE LEGISLATURE THREAD🚨

Stopping Trump means more than just winning the Electoral College Vote.

It also means looking at the entire chess board and seeing where we can guard against GOP interference.

Our best opportunity to do so:

The PA State Legislature. Image
PA currently has a 🔴 State Senate and a 🔵 State House.

Key: Unlike most states, PA’s State Legislature is sworn in on DECEMBER 1ST...BEFORE their electors meet.

If Dems win full control of the PA Legislature on 11/5, we remove a major lever of power the GOP has to interfere.
One of our main goals in PA is to FLIP the State Senate and HOLD the State House.

In the PA Senate, the GOP leads 28-22. Dems need to flip 3 seats to win the chamber.

In the PA House, Dems narrowly lead 102-101, so we need to defend our seats and flip others to pad our numbers.
Image
Image
Read 14 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Apr 29
Time for a tutorial in right-wing media propaganda.

I came across this local print edition of the Epoch Times delivered to the mailbox of someone I know.

It has the look and feel of a standard local paper, w/ a front page featuring local stories.

But let’s look closer… Image
First let’s zoom in on the top of the front page.

The paper slyly promotes the Epoch Times video website featuring a documentary about “The Real Story of January 6” and a story about “Unusual Blood-clotting” (anti-vax conspiracy theories).

But that’s just the start… Image
Remember that Page 1 lures in the reader with the promise of local news coverage, with a small-print hint about the paper’s true intent.

But Page 2 is dives in with snippets and quotes and brief items that have a distinct conservative theme. Image
Read 12 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Mar 12
We’ve now had *2* major accusations against Biden that have been refuted:

1. Robert Hur’s accusation about Biden’s cognition, which was belied by his own words in the transcript.

2. The GOP’s accusation of Biden taking bribes, which fell apart when their witness was indicted.
Republicans have relied heavily on both of these false narratives, and both have crumbled away.

Impeachment is going nowhere and Biden’s SOTU killed their ‘Sleepy Joe’ approach.

That’s a big problem for the GOP.

Why? Two reasons.
1. Now the GOP needS to formulate new lines of attack. It wont be easy.

2. Those two false Biden narratives were supposed ‘cancel out’ the *accurate* liabilities for Trump: his obvious cognitive decline and his blatant corruption. That strategy is gone now.
Read 4 tweets
TrumpsTaxes Profile picture
Feb 21
I really encourage everyone to read this conversation with @SimonWDC (posted by @atrupar without a paywall; thank you Aaron!).

There are some great electoral and political insights that cut through many of the BS media narratives that we are being fed.
publicnotice.co/p/simon-rosenb…
I love this part.

Many of us are still so traumatized by 2016 that we've created this mythology around Trump and his abilities.

But the data points to 2016 having been - dare I say - a fluke.

Don't get me wrong, a fluke could happen again.

But not if we put in the hard work. Image
I see this trauma every day in my conversations with like-minded friends and family.

I see the anxiety, I see the fear, I see the pessimism.

It's as though they are stuck in '16, and the subsequent seven years of elections never happened.

It's a mindset we have to break.
Read 4 tweets

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