Thread by @JBelcourt73

Welcome to the fog of war. You can hear the guns firing and see distant flashes on the horizon but very little else. Ukraine obviously needs OPSEC and to help conduct successful operations and Russia lies. FIRMS data can provide some insights but that is only the vaguest of

picutures. Your own commander is in the dark and can't raise anyone on the radio. There is little fuel, little fresh food, everyone is scared shitless and the men just want to go home except there is a giant ass river behind you and no bridges across it. This is the current

picture. This is the information situation facing many Russian invaders this morning. It is going to compel commanders to do something very stupid: transmit. Whomever finds themselves in charge of a part of the battle is going to have to transmit and that makes them vulnerable to

strikes designed to shut them up. The depth the Ukrainians can fight at now means Russian attempts to establish C3 are getting mangled. Russian radios might as well be poisonous snakes. Landlines, cell phones, and sat phones also exist to varying degrees but they also have limits

to their utility. Landlines don't move with units and are easily cut. Cell phones are easy to intercept and sat phones are rare and expensive. Its why the radio is such an essential piece of kit. Radios let those in contact with the enemy let higher commands know what is

going on, request support etc. We used to use the memetic SALUTE. It also lets those lower commands receive instruction and orders. This is where the problem starts. The volume of traffic to/from a platoon is tiny, and it gets progressively bigger as you work up the chain of

command. A BTG's HQ is having to respond to a lot more traffic than a company and this can be mapped out. When that command sends its own reports receives its own orders even higher up this can be mapped too. If you can map it, you can kill it. Ukraine has been aggressively

targeting command posts for some time forcing survivors to go dark or constantly be on the move (and vulnerable to partisan/SOF operations). Moving however has serious problems and makes C3 much harder. Using a map on a lap to fight a battalion sized effort is like trying to fly

to the moon on a kite. It creates massive two-way information gaps. Lower-level units don't get instruction and support. Higher level units don't know who is where doing and needing what and have no idea where to plug in reserves and other assets. Imagine being the part of the

3rd Army Corps that Russia decided to feed in piecemeal (they really are that stupid). Where do you send them, who do you hand off too, what will they run into.... the list of questions that needs be answered is endless. This is the real downstream effect of being HIMARSed.

All of this is compounded by just how bad the Russians are at the recon fight. Throughout this war they have done recon by fire. Costly, not very effective and almost totally an offensive approach. How will they do it on the defensive? I don't think they can.

Seeing the Russians get their lights punched out by a system made in #Arkansas makes me smile. @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, @RepFrenchHill WPS! Our state should be proud of the effort we are playing in helping Ukraine win on Ukraine's terms. As Russian C3 goes into final collapse

it means fewer Ukrainian deaths and the voices I follow like @Teoyaomiquu, @katalina_ada, @MrKovalenko, @OTorvaldson, @ferlain and others will be safer and those they care about will be safer and more likely to make it to the eventual peace. It makes the job of combatant units

such as the @georgian_legion easier and safer. However, there is another battlespace and that is here on the internet. Obviously don't post anything that violates OPSEC. If you haven't already join #NAFO and become a #FELLA and help us combat Russian trolls and dis-info as we

fight for control of the narrative. Russian wants a #GenocideOfUkrainians and we have our part to play in making sure they do not succeed. By keeping #Ukraine and #Ukrainians front and center we keep support for her alive. Twitter also has spaces which can be a great way to stay

informed. @MriyaReport is the space I recommend. It has it all, Ukrainian voices, famous speakers, SME's, caring people from around the world running 24/7 plus it helps support @MriyaAid a very worthwhile charity. Charity is the other way you can directly combat Russian efforts

to subdue Ukraine. Find a charity you trust and give. Medical, night vision, people and animals displaced by war, you can find one that fits your personal ethos and turn your money into results. Until Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms: Slava Ukraini!

#RussiaIsATerroristState #Kherson #KhersonOffensive #KhersonCounteroffensive #Crimea #Pedoputin @mfa_russia <--- still losing and now trapped in a pocket north of the river.

@threadreaderapp unroll please

@threadreaderapp unroll please